Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Reportajes de meteorología => Mensaje iniciado por: pavlovic en Mayo 28, 2016, 15:55:49 pm
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Good morning Spain!
I spent 6 days, mostly in Kansas, and i was five days in stormchase.
I'll start with the most important event, tornadoes around Dodge City.
24.5.2016. Minneola - Dodge City tornadoes
Supercell: Yes
Tornado: Yes, the strongest one had been preliminary rated EF-3
Hail: Yes
SPC outlooks:
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1otlk_20160524_2000_prt_zps4xcbwxhf.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1otlk_20160524_2000_prt_zps4xcbwxhf.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160524_2000_hail_prt_zpsia1xpyaf.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160524_2000_hail_prt_zpsia1xpyaf.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160524_2000_torn_prt_zpsdnioimcy.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160524_2000_torn_prt_zpsdnioimcy.gif.html)
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
...ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS AND NWRN OK...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST SW OF GCK/DDC AREA
TOWARD GAG OK WITH BILLOW CLOUDS INDICATING THE RELATIVELY STABLE
AIR MASS FOR NOW. CONTINUED STRONG HEATING...AS WELL AS A RAPID NWD
TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
STORMS FORMING ON THIS BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH
TIME COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS. EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 C/KM INDICATES TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG.
Dodge City sounding:
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/DDC_zpswykg7r1j.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/DDC_zpswykg7r1j.gif.html)
The first tornado
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7578/26639858973_59117afa8d_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GA5eXk)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GA5eXk) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7533/26638550444_f13cebb20a_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GzXwYu)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GzXwYu) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7299/26638546894_cf8627f58c_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GzXvVh)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GzXvVh) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c8.staticflickr.com/8/7407/27245412015_ca0320906c_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HvzRM2)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HvzRM2) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7706/27148423032_b744d61cf5_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Hn1Lkb)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/Hn1Lkb) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
The second one
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7356/27211219246_a7a0749455_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsyBsw)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsyBsw) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7429/27176147341_e1bd3cf1fe_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HpsRNv)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HpsRNv) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7429/26638525464_918819943d_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GzXpxN)IMG_5213 (https://flic.kr/p/GzXpxN) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7125/27211214226_2089d93075_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsyzXY)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsyzXY) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Double trouble, two tornadoes on the ground, with very brief third tornado next to the smaller one
(https://c4.staticflickr.com/8/7377/27245382675_938fcd7785_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HvzH4a)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HvzH4a) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c4.staticflickr.com/8/7284/27245378435_e76ae5e45a_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HvzFN4)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HvzFN4) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7696/27245372245_b244c0c30f_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HvzDXk)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HvzDXk) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Dodge City was lucky this time, tornado passed just west of the city
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7403/27211199896_6ec6fc5dd0_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsyvGU)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsyvGU) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7313/26638487204_4a71190bff_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GzXdb9)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GzXdb9) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7771/27245353205_56a451fb05_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Hvzyi4)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/Hvzyi4) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
New brief tornado north of Dodge City
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7360/26638478644_055af2ff30_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GzXaCy)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GzXaCy) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Route US 283, between Dodge City and Jetmore, brief funnel
(https://c4.staticflickr.com/8/7138/27245347795_bd43a45f70_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HvzwFM)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HvzwFM) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Rainbow north of Jetmore
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7397/26970116090_02348b763e_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6fTTy)Dodge City, KS area tornadoes, 5/24/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6fTTy) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiqMFkP5iaM
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21.5.2016. Leoti Kansas tornado
Supercell:Yes
Tornado: Yes, couple of brief touchdowns
Hail: Yes
My very first day in alley this year.
This storm went from ugly, poor looking bunch of nothing to real beauty
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7374/26645280094_1e8b55167c_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAy2sW)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAy2sW) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7551/27218138216_67da3c8894_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Htb5e7)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/Htb5e7) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7430/27154867662_e11313dacc_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnzN6u)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnzN6u) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7347/27218131516_d68376ffe8_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Htb3eA)IMG_4772-Pano (https://flic.kr/p/Htb3eA) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Near Leoti KS. It became obvious that this cell is going to produce something. Warm inflow winds were observed
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7649/27154861832_7a7a2bf7c8_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnzLmY)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnzLmY) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7798/26976537310_3a8e0794d2_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6PNGf)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6PNGf) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
The third touchdown, i have the first two recorded, i'll post that video later
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7103/26645260544_6822c463f4_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAxVDS)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAxVDS) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7564/26976525870_20305b543b_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6PKi1)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6PKi1) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Impressive structure:
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7363/26646510093_262f9cb710_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAEk6P)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAEk6P) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7396/27154830162_38b5aab092_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnzAWW)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnzAWW) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7788/27154826882_8ffe24ef78_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnzzYo)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnzzYo) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Mammatus
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7350/27154823452_fd0a843737_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnzyXf)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnzyXf) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7418/26646500713_91d8904697_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAEhj6)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAEhj6) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7438/27182427661_3cbfe994ca_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Hq23HT)Leoti KS tornadic supercell, 5/21/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/Hq23HT) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1otlk_20160521_1630_prt_zps0nr2ztln.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1otlk_20160521_1630_prt_zps0nr2ztln.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160521_1630_hail_prt_zpsemauacnu.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160521_1630_hail_prt_zpsemauacnu.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160521_1630_torn_prt_zpsdgn9vwjf.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160521_1630_torn_prt_zpsdgn9vwjf.gif.html)
...SUMMARY...
A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. A SEPARATE
AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN WESTERN KANSAS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER PARTS OF CA/NV THIS
MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN CO. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER...SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. 12Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
INTENSE CELLS LATER TODAY. WHILE THE COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS THE
STORMS WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING DUE TO A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER
RIDGE.
Sounding:
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/DDC_zpscgqohx3v.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/DDC_zpscgqohx3v.gif.html)
Radar images:
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/1_5_5_5_zps0vxovvfl.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/1_5_5_5_zps0vxovvfl.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/2_5_5_5_zpst4l7wq9b.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/2_5_5_5_zpst4l7wq9b.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/3_5_5_5_zpsm409uzke.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/3_5_5_5_zpsm409uzke.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_5_5_5_zpspzv2ejo8.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_5_5_5_zpspzv2ejo8.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_6_5_5_zpssj8mnd5s.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_6_5_5_zpssj8mnd5s.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_7_5_5_zpsxrzvuyiw.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_7_5_5_zpsxrzvuyiw.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_8_5_5_zpsentr1rdc.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_8_5_5_zpsentr1rdc.png.html)
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22.5.2016, Mullen to Valentine and back, northcentral Nebraska
Supercell: Yes, couple of
Tornado: No
Hail: Yes
I was following couple of supercells. One of them went tornado warned, but failed to produce.
Developing SC
(https://c8.staticflickr.com/8/7430/27180636871_892449b0f2_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HpRSoc)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HpRSoc) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Nice structure, before this two cells merged
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7281/26974842980_2a70479dd7_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6F82E)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6F82E) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7381/27180630661_5f70354fa5_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HpRQx8)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HpRQx8) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7342/27180627921_ecda22ea6a_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HpRPHT)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HpRPHT) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Hail to the left
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7686/26974831380_8d2d7b749b_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6F4zE)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6F4zE) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Tornado warned SC, i ended up in front of rotation
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7007/26974820250_bb57531cc1_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6F1gL)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6F1gL) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
New SC were developing SW toward Mullen, im going back
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7135/26974813030_be1a1bdd23_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6EY8h)IMG_5013 (https://flic.kr/p/H6EY8h) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7316/26974810110_f71d6ddd39_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6EXfW)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6EXfW) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
North of Mullen
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7356/27216089786_820859006a_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsZzim)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsZzim) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7214/26974798900_34fb3fe666_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6ETVE)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6ETVE) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c8.staticflickr.com/8/7403/26644529103_01d806edcc_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAubdP)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAubdP) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7275/27250115605_a52a9ae603_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HvZXZp)Mullen NE to Valentine NE supercells, 5/22/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HvZXZp) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN UT. LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL SPREAD INTO WY/CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD/NORTHERN NEB
BY 00Z AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL RISKS.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO RISK AREA TO PARTS OF SD/NEB
WHERE SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST...AND WHERE
SEVERAL 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGHER RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE
DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
[/size]
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160522_1630_wind_prt_zpsdacn3sgd.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160522_1630_wind_prt_zpsdacn3sgd.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160522_1630_torn_prt_zpsecp2mxqy.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160522_1630_torn_prt_zpsecp2mxqy.gif.html)
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Radar:
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/1_5_5_5_zpswftbpb5v.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/1_5_5_5_zpswftbpb5v.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/2_5_5_5_zpsyhhelxbp.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/2_5_5_5_zpsyhhelxbp.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/3_5_5_5_zpsxoecg6bj.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/3_5_5_5_zpsxoecg6bj.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/4_5_5_5_zpsk7kfbh8j.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/4_5_5_5_zpsk7kfbh8j.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/5_5_5_5_zpsectr3nw9.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/5_5_5_5_zpsectr3nw9.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/6_5_5_5_zps4tm6ytkg.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/6_5_5_5_zps4tm6ytkg.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_1_5_5_zpsqdhvvdvf.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_1_5_5_zpsqdhvvdvf.png.html)
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(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_3_5_5_zpsr2jzctfi.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_3_5_5_zpsr2jzctfi.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_4_5_5_zpsbxtyideu.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_4_5_5_zpsbxtyideu.png.html)
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23.5.2016, Texas panhandle and a little bit of Oklahoma
Supercell: Yes, couple of
Tornado: No
Hail: Yes
The first cell in Texas was looking promising, but dissipated after only 90 minutes.
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7393/26974183620_04d6ce65c4_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6BK2o)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6BK2o) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7429/26642671914_af620e434b_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAjE9j)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAjE9j) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7430/26974169260_dfe4039b7d_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6BEKN)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6BEKN) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7404/27152461712_f37fc4216d_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnnsTA)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnnsTA) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7283/26974157780_77fefaae05_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/H6BBkS)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/H6BBkS) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7560/27152449612_be72340fe5_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HnnphY)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HnnphY) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7169/27215415806_dfc9c46391_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsW7X1)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsW7X1) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7628/27215412596_94b1e84a59_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsW6ZE)Hedley TX supercell, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsW6ZE) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
Heading back north, toward Higgins and Follett TX. Nice, but short lived LP-s
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7639/27215407656_e1881fdf73_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsW5wu)Follett TX - Catesby OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsW5wu) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
This cell went tornado warned, producing some nice hail.
(https://c5.staticflickr.com/8/7092/27215402036_c94ebce97d_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsW3RA)Follett TX - Catesby OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsW3RA) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7444/27215397416_7bd4563260_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsW2tW)Follett TX - Catesby OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsW2tW) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7675/27215393136_944d848009_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsW1d9)Follett TX - Catesby OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsW1d9) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7399/26642606784_a3054b20bd_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAjjMo)Follett TX - Catesby OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAjjMo) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
This cells were toward NE, somewhere around OK and KS state line
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7642/27215387576_8eec2a5ff5_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HsVYyh)Woodward OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/HsVYyh) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7363/26642594214_f443c618d5_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAjg3E)Woodward OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAjg3E) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7314/26642589214_2a66aa6f07_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GAjeys)Woodward OK supercells, 5/23/2016 (https://flic.kr/p/GAjeys) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. ONE IS
OVER NORTHERN AZ...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CO/WRN KS BY THIS
EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX AFTER SUNSET. BOTH FEATURES WILL
LIKELY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A LITTLE LATE TO MAXIMIZE THE SEVERE
THREAT AROUND MAX HEATING. THE RESULT IS THE RISK OF ISOLATED
INTENSE SUPERCELLS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP.
A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER SOUTHERN OK IS PROCEEDING EASTWARD...ALLOWING
THE RAPID RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVENTUAL BOWING STRUCTURES PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
[/size]
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1otlk_20160523_1630_prt_zps6ujyvu6i.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1otlk_20160523_1630_prt_zps6ujyvu6i.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160523_1630_torn_prt_zpslc0tbfud.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160523_1630_torn_prt_zpslc0tbfud.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160523_1630_hail_prt_zpshhqvbwjc.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160523_1630_hail_prt_zpshhqvbwjc.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/1_5_5_5_zpskxk1ckyk.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/1_5_5_5_zpskxk1ckyk.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/2_5_5_5_zpsglahy998.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/2_5_5_5_zpsglahy998.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/3_5_5_5_zpsy5tkannl.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/3_5_5_5_zpsy5tkannl.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/4_5_5_5_zps3p1vun5m.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/4_5_5_5_zps3p1vun5m.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_1_5_5_zps3xardp48.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_1_5_5_zps3xardp48.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_2_5_5_zpsjppxcm7i.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_2_5_5_zpsjppxcm7i.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_3_5_5_zpsshhxmvzg.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_3_5_5_zpsshhxmvzg.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_4_5_5_zpsdlui3umf.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_4_5_5_zpsdlui3umf.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/DDC_zpsqc4bpt8c.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/DDC_zpsqc4bpt8c.gif.html)
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26.5.2016, Tornado bust south central and central KS
Supercell: Yes, couple of
Tornado: No
Hail: Yes
Morning convection, along with some pockets of dry air, and messy storm mode destroyed any chances for tornadoes in CSC Kansas. Cells were firing everywhere.
The first storm of the day for me was nasty looking HP monster
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7413/26691045773_0d73373034_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GEAA1n)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/GEAA1n) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c6.staticflickr.com/8/7053/26691043533_9865b11c5f_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GEAzkK)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/GEAzkK) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/1_5_5_5_zpsso1iqvjq.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/1_5_5_5_zpsso1iqvjq.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_1_5_5_zpsy0tykiue.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_1_5_5_zpsy0tykiue.png.html)
The second cell, more on Classic SC side, but got contaminated by other developing Cbs. It went tornado warned, but failed to produce
(https://c7.staticflickr.com/8/7533/27200394222_c0a21e7515_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HrB8yb)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/HrB8yb) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c4.staticflickr.com/8/7503/26691039643_57b2ff9275_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GEAybF)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/GEAybF) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/2_5_5_5_zpsl5tsmfxv.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/2_5_5_5_zpsl5tsmfxv.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_2_5_5_zpsophq1dl7.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_2_5_5_zpsophq1dl7.png.html)
At the end, everything just merged into MCS, beautiful shelf was just after me
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7304/27200391362_a0fea530be_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HrB7GS)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/HrB7GS) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7010/26690116984_2d986e9a21_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/GEvPUL)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/GEvPUL) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(https://c3.staticflickr.com/8/7041/27022163170_a13711cb28_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/HaRDF1)Severe thunderstorms central Kansas, 5/26/16 (https://flic.kr/p/HaRDF1) by Nikola Pavlovic (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pavlovicstormchases/), on Flickr
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/4_5_5_5_zps2b8eoikb.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/4_5_5_5_zps2b8eoikb.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/wawr_3_5_5_zpsu6rszjsm.png) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/wawr_3_5_5_zpsu6rszjsm.png.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/DDC_zpsb5ldk4vs.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/DDC_zpsb5ldk4vs.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/LMN_zpsyylmdxx8.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/LMN_zpsyylmdxx8.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1otlk_20160526_1630_prt_zpsdcvedimw.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1otlk_20160526_1630_prt_zpsdcvedimw.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160526_1630_torn_prt_zpswjgabi3i.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160526_1630_torn_prt_zpswjgabi3i.gif.html)
(http://i841.photobucket.com/albums/zz332/nikopav/day1probotlk_20160526_1630_hail_prt_zpsns1u0zwy.gif) (http://s841.photobucket.com/user/nikopav/media/day1probotlk_20160526_1630_hail_prt_zpsns1u0zwy.gif.html)
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE
POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...NEB/KS...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW NEAR DDC...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A VERY
MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW...WHERE NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. GIVEN THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT OVER PARTS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NEB.
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHWEST KS...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MESSY
WITH MIXED MODES. HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WIND
FIELDS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SUGGESTS THE RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME RISK OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS AS STORMS EMANATING FROM CO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK.
I still have to upload more videos. Check my Flickr account for more photos.
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Wow... very long report, but really interesting and plenty of incredible pics! Thank you very much, Nikola ;) ;) ;)
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Fantastic job, you are the best conection here for the information and images. Good lucky and congratulations.
I'm sorry , my english is basic. ;)
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Impresionante amigo.
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¡¡Buah!! Poco se puede decir con palabras... Impresionante lo que nos traes. Gracias por compartirlo y enhorabuena por la experiencia y el resultado de las fotos.
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:-X :o ¡Espectaculares pavlovic!.