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Autor Tema: Depresión Tropical 02E - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010  (Leído 1474 veces)

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Depresión Tropical 02E - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« en: Junio 16, 2010, 17:59:31 pm »
Citar
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161538
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010
830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1209 UTC
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 12-18 HOURS...THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 AND AN IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON-LIKE ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED
BY A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND A EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.  THIS PATTERN YIELDS A SLOW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW... AND
HELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE.  THIS IS BORNE
OUT IN RECENT CENTER FIXES WHICH GIVE LITTLE MOTION...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BUILDING WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.

THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LOWER
LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1530Z 14.8N  95.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.8N  96.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N  97.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.2N  98.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  99.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
« Última modificación: Junio 17, 2010, 17:02:02 pm por Gale »
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Re: Depresión Tropical 02E - Posible BLAS - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« Respuesta #1 en: Junio 16, 2010, 18:04:58 pm »
Pues si, ya tenemos a la 02E

DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 02E

25kts-1007mb



Y la página del JTWC que sigue inoperativa  :-\
« Última modificación: Junio 16, 2010, 18:09:25 pm por Eker »
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Re: Depresión Tropical 02E - Posible BLAS - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« Respuesta #2 en: Junio 16, 2010, 21:51:57 pm »
aunque está previsto que bajará la cizalla...el aire seco se la va a comer
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<br /><br /><br /> Eneko/20minutos.es.

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Re: Depresión Tropical 02E - Posible BLAS - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« Respuesta #3 en: Junio 16, 2010, 23:32:38 pm »
Citar
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 162036
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSATING MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE 25-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
OR 310/3 OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT.  THE
MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
EAST.  THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION AS A
SEPARATE SYSTEM...TAKES THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION
OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT NOT BE SO FAVORABLE.  AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 15.0N  95.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.1N  96.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.3N  97.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  98.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N  99.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 101.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
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Re: Depresión Tropical 02E - Posible BLAS - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« Respuesta #4 en: Junio 17, 2010, 12:26:46 pm »
De momento aguanta

25kts-1007mb

Dejo el visible

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Re: Depresión Tropical 02E - Posible BLAS - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« Respuesta #5 en: Junio 17, 2010, 12:29:42 pm »
Dejo último boletín del NHC y trayectoria

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 170832
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     EP022010
200 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION STAYING JUST OFFSHORE THE
MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 97.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON LATER
TODAY OR ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF THE STATE OF
OAXACA AND SOUTHERN GUERRERO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA


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Re: Depresión Tropical 02E - Posible BLAS - Pacífico Este - 06 / 2010
« Respuesta #6 en: Junio 17, 2010, 15:32:11 pm »
Cita de: deltaforce en Junio 16, 2010, 21:51:57 pm
aunque está previsto que bajará la cizalla...el aire seco se la va a comer

Pues al final parece que es la cizalladura la que se va a merendar a la depresión tropical.............. Al menos es lo que se anuncia en el boletín nº4 del CNH.
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