000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010223
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INSIST THAT THE
SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...ERICK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.   THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING ONLY AS INDICATED BY SHIPS. GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.

ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. A STRONG
ELONGATED EAST-WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ERICK
ON A WESTWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS AND
BOTH HWRF AND GFDL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD PATH AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0300Z 13.1N 124.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA