Y este es el otro sistema, en el noreste de la isla, con mucho mejor aspecto. Yo diría incluso que tiene organización como para ser considerado al menos depresión tropical, como poco.

Ya tiene vientos de 35 kts y es muy raro que el JTWC y Reunion no la han pasado a Tormenta Tropical. Se ve algo fortachón

Ya la cataogan como la Depresión Tropical Eight Se ve algo rasgada y por su cercania a tierra creo que no durará mucho

027
WTIO30 FMEE 190040 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 49.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 24.4S/49.2E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.6S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 28.6S/52.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 31.9S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+

SCATTEROMETRIC DATA (ASCAT PASS OF 17:50Z SHOW SOME NO CONTAMINATED 35 KT
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE) AND SATELLITE DATA (CURVED BAND THAT
MEASURES 5.5/10 ON EIR IMAGERY) ALLOW A DT AT 2.5+. CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM
HAS BEEN NAMED ERIC BY THE MADAGASCAR WEATHER SERVICES. HOWEVER
CONVECTION IS WARM
ER SINCE 20:30Z PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LANDMASS.

SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED
230o/6KT) AND SHOULD MADE LANDFALL OR PASS VERY NEAR TO THE EAST OF THE
FENERIVE/TAMATAVE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH A
SOUTHWARDS TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT SYSTEM SHOULD NOT
INTENSIFY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.

WINDS STRUCTURE IS DISSYMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN
SEMI CIRCLE),

Fijáos que imagen más curiosa de ERIC, con la convección desplazada del centro de la perturbación que muestra un marcado vórtice pero rodeado de nubes poco consistentes...