Hurricane Season Update
By NEIL JOHNSON The Tampa Tribune
Published: Jul 23, 2007
http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBLS7T7G4F.htmlWhen the tropics are calm, the daily update issued by the National Hurricane Center says: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Sweet words for Florida residents who are understandably twitchy about hurricanes.
So 53 days into the six-month season that experts predict will be active, there are positive signs to note about the tropics, but beware.
We're entering the peak of the season - August through mid-October - and history shows that a slow start doesn't necessarily mean a calm season.
No HurricanesThe 2007 season has produced one tropical storm and a subtropical storm, and neither amounted to much. Don't read too much into this, though. We've been in an active cycle since 1995. During five of those seasons, hurricanes had formed by this time. In the other seven, the first hurricane didn't form until August or September.
ShearWinds blowing different directions from the Earth's surface to 35,000 feet can disrupt developing storms. The shear over parts of the Atlantic has been in the critical 20 mph and higher range that hampers development. However,
shear can vary almost daily or weekly, and it tends to diminish during the peak of the season.
Saharan DustDry, dusty air blowing from Africa over the tropical Atlantic is more dense than it has been since 1999. Scientists say the dry air can inhibit storms from developing or growing stronger. But scientists can't forecast how much dust will be around in the peak of hurricane season. And researchers remain
unsure how much the dust really snuffs out hurricanes.
No La NinaForecasters expected La Nina to have formed by now, making it easier for hurricanes to form. That may not happen,
removing one more reason to expect an active season. Experts are quick to point out, though, that La Nina - unusually cool water in the Pacific - did not exist in 2004 and 2005.
Water TemperatureWarm ocean water is fuel for hurricanes, and through June temperatures in the Atlantic off of Africa hovered about a degree below the
normal of 81 degrees. The thick Saharan dust may have blocked sunlight and kept the
water slightly cooler.
In the past week or so, though, temperatures across the Atlantic have crept close to normal. And except for the eastern Gulf and the Caribbean
, ocean temperatures don't really start to cook until next month.
If the dust thins, temperatures could rise quickly.
Current Eastern Gulf temperature: 86
Average Eastern Gulf temperature in August: 86
Average Eastern Gulf temperature in September: 84
Average Eastern Gulf temperature in October: 77 :O* :O* :O* :O*
Tema: Análisis del Atlántico, Caribe y Golfo de México ciclónico. (Leído 84597 veces)