THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.7S 43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.6S 43.6E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SHEARING AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 50 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE VICINITY ARE LOW (25 TO 26 DEGREES C) AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS LITTLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. BECAUSE THE DISTURBANCE IS ANALYZED AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
BULLETIN DU 28 MAI A 16H30 LOCALES:IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNEMENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.*****************************************************NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIENDEPRESSION SUB-TROPICALE JOELPRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.POSITION LE 28 MAI A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 26.8 SUD / 46.9 EST(VINGT-SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE-SIX DEGRES NEUF EST).DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1050 KM AU SUD-OUESTDEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIREVOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURSSE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 31.8S/47.8EATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCECOMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LAPOSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.-----------------------------------------------------CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. IL SERA REACTUALISE VERS 22H30 LOCALES