Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Mayo 29, 2010, 16:06:38 pm
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Ahí está...
- 1ºs avisos del NHC:
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291215
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
1200 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 93.8W
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 93.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Pd: Gale, ¿puedes abrir el Topic?... joder, no puedo enviar privados aún... :'(
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Gracias, Parungo ;) Adjunto la imagen del canal visible más actual :D
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Parece ser que ya es AGATHA. Habrá que esperar una confirmación por parte de NHC :D1
- ATCF BEST 201005291342:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep012010.invest
EP, 01, 2010052912, , BEST, 0, 130N, 934W, 35, 1004, TS
Modifico, Ya es Oficialmente AGATHA ::) ::) ::)
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291431
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM...WSW OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. AGATHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
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Sí que lo es.... a cambiar el título del 1º sistema del Pacífico Este esta Temporada... :D1
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Pues ya esta confirmado, Tormenta Tropical AGATHA
(http://i45.tinypic.com/j1341j.jpg)
(http://i50.tinypic.com/166k5j5.jpg)
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AGHATA ha vuelto a ser degradada a depresión tropical, al debilitarse en tierra.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300229
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
AGATHA CROSSED THE COAST EARLIER TODAY ABOUT 330 PM PDT...2230
UTC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPED A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WAS MOVING
INLAND. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR REPORTED STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST EARLIER TODAY WHILE
DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN GUATEMALA REPORTED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
FROM THE SURROUNDING STATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. SINCE AGATHA IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING...AND AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.
AGATHA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS.
ALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR IN
SQUALLS PRIMARILY OVER WATER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.9N 92.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
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Sigue con rumbo fijo a costas del caribe, pero su trayectoria sobre tierra la estan debilitando rapidamente...
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201001_spanish.gif)
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Ya tenemos un seguimiento ! y yo con estos pelos ! ayyy la feria....
La vida de Agatha hasta el momento.
Tracking Info For Tropical Depression Agatha
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 05/29/10 12.9N 93.5W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 05/29/10 13.1N 93.2W 40 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/29/10 13.9N 92.4W 45 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/30/10 14.9N 92.0W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 05/30/10 15.6N 91.7W 30 1007 Tropical Depression
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201001_sat.jpg)
Ahi en tierra poca vida le queda no?
saludos
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Ya es una baja remanente. Lo interesante sería que saliera al Mar Caribe y que se reorganize y tome el nombre de ALEX. Aunque como estan las cosas, se ve muy complicado. Ningun modelo intuye nuevo desarrollo de Ex-AGATHA :-\
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Como indicaba (http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/tiempo-severo-en-espaa-y-el-mundo-anlisis-debate-y-seguimiento/la-tormenta-tropical-'agatha'-deja-12-muertos-en-guatemala/) nuestra compañera Jenny, en Guatemala Ágatha ha dejado al menos 12 víctimas mortales a su paso :'(
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Es verdad nadie le da mas vida, y ya en estos momentos esta una parte de la conveccion en el caribe, pero segun no llegaria al caribe se disiparia y si llega a caminar mas rapido podria conservar cierta organizacion del sistema en el caribe pero esto dificilmente se daria...[/b]
(http://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pVmKuo74ATEApuE5WcBaKOGhoZZl2LX2HkpF6Ah-0on3WgzSNEkzgWp2_HDyL2VuaEo6ylBbivD4-ZqQEQ20SyQ/aghat_car.jpg)
(http://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1ph0YNPT5rq0v3of_4EO3qtx3-dgDNnOUneI0N84LaW4GoMKWfl6u0FsxAFhEC1w_iDaR16ixYZ2KQlv7jj833Wg/maptormenta-dom-31_may2010.jpg)
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Al menos 86 personas han muerto en Guatemala, El Salvador y Honduras a consecuencia del paso de la tormenta tropical 'Agata', que ha provocado numerosas inundaciones, crecidas de ríos y corrimientos de tierra, según han informado las autoridades de los tres países centroamericanos en sus últimos balances.
El país más afectado está siendo Guatemala, donde la cifra de muertos asciende a 74 personas; en El Salvador son nueve los fallecidos, mientras que en Honduras hay hasta ahora contabilizados tres muertos. Sin embargo, los equipos de rescate continúan con sus trabajos, y no se descarta que estas cifras aumenten.
Fuente DV.
86 muertos Toromenta tropical Agatha[url] (http://www.diariovasco.com/rc/20100531/mas-actualidad/internacional/huracan-agatha-centro-america-201005310131.html)
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Estamos siguiendo la evolución de ex-AGATHA en el hilo de seguimiento del Atlántico ciclónico - Caribe - GOM, puesto que hay muy buena convección y condiciones ambientales magníficas, al menos de momento ;)
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Un socavón en la ciudad de Guatemala provocado por el Ciclón Agatha se tragó una casa de tres pisos hace un par de dias. :-X
Parece que cayó un meteorito!! :o :o :o
http://www.eluniverso.com/2010/05/31/1/1361/huracan-agatha-golpea-fuerza-guatemala-salvador.html?p=1354&m=719
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/3443/saca3.jpg) (http://img42.imageshack.us/i/saca3.jpg/)
(http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/648/500xundimientoz.jpg) (http://img444.imageshack.us/i/500xundimientoz.jpg/)
(http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/3761/saca1.jpg) (http://img707.imageshack.us/i/saca1.jpg/)