Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: deltaforce en Noviembre 18, 2007, 14:10:36 pm
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921
wtxs32 pgtw 180900
msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
ref/a/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/172221z Nov 07//
ampn/tropical cyclone formation alert//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 04s warning nr 001
02 active tropical cyclones in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
180600z --- near 7.9s 76.5e
movement past six hours - 155 degrees at 07 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 7.9s 76.5e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
181800z --- 8.6s 77.1e
Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
050 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 140 deg/ 03 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
190600z --- 9.1s 77.5e
Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 160 deg/ 03 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
191800z --- 9.7s 77.7e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 190 deg/ 03 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
200600z --- 10.3s 77.6e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
180900z position near 8.1s 76.6e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 04s (noname), located approximately 240 nm
east of Diego Garcia, has tracked south-southeastward at 07 knots
over the past 06 hours. Recent Dvorak T-numbers from knes and pgtw
and a 180600z CIRA multiplatform satellite intensity estimate indi-
cate that the maximum sustained winds associated with tc 04s have
reached 35 knots. The current position is based on a 180530z pgtw
satellite fix and recent microwave satellite imagery. Tc 04s is
tracking along the southwestern periphery of a near-equatorial
steering ridge to the northeast. This general motion is expected
to continue through the forecast period, with a slight turn to the
west beginning around tau 36 as the storm encounters the competing
steering influence of subtropical ridging to the south.
The avail-
able numerical model guidance depicts strong interaction between
tc 04s and tc 03s( LEE-ARIEL) to the southeast. Given that the current separa-
tion distance between the two cyclones is about 700 nm and expected
to decrease, binary interaction between the systems is possible.
However, tc 04s is expected to become the stronger system over
time and the effect of a weaker tc 03s on the track of tc 04s
therefore appears to be over-emphasized in the current model
forecasts. NOGAPS depicts a clear separation between the two
circulations through much of the forecast period and also depicts
tc 04s as the dominant circulation.
Therefore, the current fore-
cast is close to the NOGAPS solution. This warning supersedes and
cancels ref a, navpacmetoccen 172221z Nov 07 tropical cyclone
formation alert (wtxs21 pgtw 172230). Maximum significant wave
height at 180600z is 16 feet. Next warnings at 182100z and 190900z.
Refer to tropical cyclone 03s (lee-ariel) warnings (wtxs31 pgtw)
for twelve-hourly updates.//
35kts - 996mb
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Ciclón Tropical BONGWE - TT -
60 kts - 978 mb
(http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/6869/hemisferiosurdf7.jpg)
Se dirige hacia el Sur.
No se espera que afecte a tierra.
Saludos.
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Ciclón Tropical BONGWE - Huracán
65 kts 974 mb
(http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/2939/65kts994xo5.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
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Ciclón Tropical BONGWE - TT -
55 kts - 982 mb
(http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/9836/hemisferiosurfv7.jpg)
(http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/6890/hemisferiosur3fd9.th.gif) (http://img510.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hemisferiosur3fd9.gif)
Aunque ha perdido potencia, se espera que vuelva a adquirirla, en las próximas horas.
De momento, no se prevee que afecte a tierra.
Saludos.
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Este es el que iba hacia Madagascar ¿no? Me pierdo un poco entre tanto ciclón tropical en el hemisferio sur :</O
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todavia puede ....es el 03 en el track ....el 02 era Lee-ariel
(http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/3077/saisoncycloniquebongwe0ip1.png) (http://imageshack.us)
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55kts--982mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1974657385.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1974657385.html)
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Ciclón Tropical BONGWE - TT -
45 kts - 989 mb
(http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/1949/hemisferiosurvy1.jpg)
(http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/5638/hemisferiosur3ey6.th.gif) (http://img143.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hemisferiosur3ey6.gif)
No se preveen, de momento, grandes cambios en esta Tormenta Tropical.
Saludos.
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:O* 55kts - 985mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1401349627.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1401349627.html)
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Tracking Info For Tropical Cyclone Bongwe
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 11/20/07 12.5S 73.0E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 11/21/07 12.7S 71.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 11/21/07 13.6S 70.3E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 11/22/07 14S 70.0E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 11/22/07 13.9S 69.7E 65 Tropical Storm
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55kts--985mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1989660875.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1989660875.html)
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1738807143.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1738807143.html)
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a madagascar :O* :O*
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1936935721.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1936935721.html)
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Vendredi, 23 novembre 2007, 10h19 (UTC+4)
(http://img250.imageshack.us/img250/7292/derimagesatellitebongwevj5.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
BULLETIN DU 23 NOVEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
(http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/762/zoomderniere03bongwe23niq8.png) (http://imageshack.us)
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGWE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 991 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 13.7 SUD / 68.8 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1600 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.
(http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/6829/oceanindien03bongwe23nojw2.png) (http://imageshack.us)
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.5S/65.9E
SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.2S/62.8E
SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.8S/59.8E
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45kts--990mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1832075146.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1832075146.html)
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se dirige a madagascar????
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se dirige a madagascar????
si sobrevive hasta entonces :O*
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25kts-1004mb
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:O* 25kts-1004mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1667048241.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1667048241.html)
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25kts - 1004mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1192627318.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1192627318.html)
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04S.BONGWE, WARN, 27 NOV 2007 0900Z
UTC (Z)
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 012
WTXS32 PGTW 232100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 67.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.8S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.0S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 67.5E.
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20kts 1007mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1853928505.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1853928505.html)
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1689330704.gif) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1689330704.html)
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:O* a punto de disiparse
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1987127645.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1987127645.html)