35kts-996mb
remarks:161500z position near 17.1s 64.2e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 06s (noname) located approximately 570 nm
east-northeast of La Reunion, has
tracked west-southwestward at
08 knots over the past 06 hours.
Recent multispectral satellite
imagery reveals a partially exposed low level circulation center
(LLCC) also evident in a 160916z AMSR-E microwave satellite pass.
The remaining deep convection associated with tc 06s has been
displaced to the west of the LLCC by strong vertical wind shear
induced by the peripheral flow of a near-equatorial ridge aloft.
Despite the strong vertical shear, good poleward outflow has allowed
the storm to maintain tc strength with Dvorak intensity estimates
of 2.5/2.5 from pgtw, knes, and fmee.
The storm continues to track
west-southwestward under the influence of low to mid-level subtropical
ridging to the south and east of the system.
The offsetting conditions
of favorable poleward outflow and unfavorable strong vertical shear will
allow the system to maintain tc strength till tau 24. After tau 24, a
decrease in available ocean heat content and the strong vertical wind
shear will over take the system and result in dissipation over the
water.
Overall, model guidance remains in good agreement with current forecast
reasoning. Maximum significant wave height at 161200z is 12 feet.
Tema: Ciclón Tropical CELINA (TS) - (Hemisferio Sur-Madagascar) (Leído 1674 veces)