Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 26, 2009, 18:05:54 pm
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Como bien habéis notado, DANNY ya es oficial, aunque los meteorólogos del CNH tienen dudas sobre su completa naturaleza tropical, aunque apuestan por ello debido a lo que muestran los diagramas de fase de la tormenta. Adjunto el boletín completo, el primero para este ciclón:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 261512
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
WITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE
TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL
STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16. DANNY IS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH
DECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY
AFFECT. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE
U. S. EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF... AND GFDL SHOW A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND
ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKER
THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.9N 70.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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De sistema 92L Invest a Tormenta Tropical Danny ;D
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Observado la imagen del Sat,la verdad que no tiene mucha pinta de Tormenta Tropical, se ve clarísimo el desplazamiento de la convección hacia el NE y su centro no tiene convección. ???
(http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/5315/cazaaaa.jpg) (http://img146.imageshack.us/i/cazaaaa.jpg/)
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Tengo mis dudas en Dani actualmente!!
Ahora mismo creo que sufre 30 nudos de vientos cortantes y tal vez mas adelante si que encontre condiciones mas favorables,dentro de las 24h.
Ya veremos si resiste. ::)
En esta imagen se ve claramente como está resistiendo a esos vientos cortantes del SW en altura.
(http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/1402/pates.gif) (http://img194.imageshack.us/i/pates.gif/)
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Si se dan cuenta el centro del vortice en superficiese se encuentra mucho mas al Este de la convección. ???
(http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4705/cghoo.jpg) (http://img21.imageshack.us/i/cghoo.jpg/)
Observen en la imagen en movimiento
(http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/4552/35383303.gif) (http://img90.imageshack.us/i/35383303.gif/)
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Este ciclón, a pesar de su relativa poca entidad inicial, es muy interesante porque tiene un poco de cabeza a los meteorólogos del CNH, ya que no posee la estructura típica de un ciclón tropical, según podemos leer en la discusión nº4 sobre el ciclón, con los vientos más intensos al E y NE del sistema. Además, también es atípico por lo pronosticado por los modelos que, a pesar de una cizalladura creciente, le auguran intensificación hasta adquirir fuerza de huracán, en un ambiente que se supone desfavorable para que se produzca tal proceso. Le seguiremos bien los pasos, a ver qué aspecto y datos presenta, con una evolución tan extraña 8)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 270841
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
HAVE BEEN CRITICAL IN LOCATING THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
OF DANNY THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE MADE ANOTHER
NORTHWARD REFORMATION. THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND 55 KT WINDS AT 850
MB AND DROPSONDE AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. AN EARLIER
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED 12000 FT WINDS OF 66 KT AND
RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 45-50 KT. THE NOAA SFMR DATA ALSO
REASONABLY FIT A 2254 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH HAD A FEW 50 KT WIND
BARBS. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DANNY DOES NOT HAVE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRUCTURE AND HAS MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS LOCATED WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.
WITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST ABOUT
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/9. DESPITE
THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS DANNY MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BECAUSE
OF THE CENTER REFORMATION AND THE GOOD TRACK MODEL AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING DANNY CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
WHILE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR DANNY FOR THE TIME BEING...
GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS
PATTERN CHANGE...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS MAKE DANNY A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING DESPITE THE SHEAR. SOME OF THIS INCREASE IN
STRENGTH COULD BE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ARGUE MORE FOR A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO BE A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...
THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAKES DANNY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 27.4N 72.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 28.4N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 32.3N 74.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 35.7N 72.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 44.0N 66.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0600Z 53.0N 40.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hoy es el día clave, ya que hay menos vientos cortante y mucho más aire húmedo.
Hoy debería organizar su centro de circulación y producir explosiones de convección, sino...., el frente frío intenso que se aproxima a la costa E de EE.UU lo va a capturar en tan solo 36 a 48h.... :P
(http://img103.imageshack.us/img103/4519/39323798.jpg) (http://img103.imageshack.us/i/39323798.jpg/)
Mapa isobarico.
(http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/3319/popf.jpg) (http://img380.imageshack.us/i/popf.jpg/)
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sigue mareando la perdiz.... ???
(http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/1723/avnly.jpg)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 27.5N 73.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 28.7N 73.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 30.3N 74.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 33.2N 74.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 36.9N 72.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/1200Z 52.5N 37.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ya veremos a ver si llega a categoria uno.
un saludo ;)
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sigue mareando la perdiz.... ???
Pues si compañero la Tormenta Tropical sigue siendo un sistema muy inusual, sin tener una estructura tropical.El sistema sigue desfasado presenta una circulación totalmente expuesta al W de la convección.A mi personalmente ni me parece una Tormenta Tropical :-X
es que no puedo entender por que... ???
la cizalladura es de entre 15 y 20 kt, sobre todo en el 4º y 1º cuadrante del sistema, supongo que sea eso, si no no me lo explico.
decian no se si era en el blog de jeff masters o en storm2k que era subtropical, pero nada de extratopical...
de todas formas, si ahora mismo tuviera que apostar a que llegue a huracan categoria 1 en 72 horas, rotundamente diría que NO, hoy se suponia que tenia condiciones favorables y ha evolucionado si, pero no mas de un aumento de 10 kt, ademas que la estructura es una pena.
espero comerme mis palabras. :P
edito: eingggg, me he equivocado al postear o es que el mensaje ha sido borrado?... :-\
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Disculpa pepeavilenho, pero borré mi anterior mensaje porque no podia subir una imagen. :-[
Aqui la dejo.
(http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/5762/danyv.jpg) (http://img11.imageshack.us/i/danyv.jpg/)
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si la temperatura del mar es el motor de los huracanes,creo que danny,a pasar por el mismo sitio que bill .. y tan pronto ..,no tiene con que alimentarse debidamente...bill fue cat 4 y habrá dejado el area sin suficiente energia ::) ::)
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si la temperatura del mar es el motor de los huracanes,creo que danny,a pasar por el mismo sitio que bill .. y tan pronto ..,no tiene con que alimentarse debidamente...bill fue cat 4 y habrá dejado el area sin suficiente energia ::) ::)
Ajá....... Jeff, en su blog, hace comentarios en este sentido, aunque está previsto que el camino de DANNY esté un poco más al oeste, de la "huella" o traza de aguas frías dejada por BILL. De todos modos, este ciclon me parece un completo BLUF... Totalmente amorfo y casi fuera de lo clasificable como "tropical", al menos de forma neta, aunque parta de una onda tropical... Solamente por su evolución gracias a la interacción con una baja en altura, me parece más de subtropical que otra cosa...
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La Mayoría de los modelos insiste en que según avance hacia el N se convierta en un huracán Cat.1.
Yo Aún sigo teniendo mis dudas ::)
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La Mayoría de los modelos insiste en que según avance hacia el N se convierta en un huracán Cat.1.
Yo Aún sigo teniendo mis dudas ::)
ya se jodio... :-[
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.5N 73.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 28.5N 74.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.7N 75.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 34.4N 74.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 38.8N 71.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1800Z 50.0N 49.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/1800Z 51.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Siguen rebajando el pico de intensidad de DANNY, que ahora el CNH deja en 55 KT :P Si sólo hay que ver su aspecto para ver que este ciclón está hecho trizas...
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- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 6 9 15 17 18
TROP DEPRESSION 13 14 25 29 27 23 18
TROPICAL STORM 84 75 63 52 47 47 44
HURRICANE 2 9 7 10 11 13 20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 5 8 9 10 16
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 2 3
HUR CAT 3 1 X X X X 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT
45 kt nada mas ???
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Ajá....... Jeff, en su blog, hace comentarios en este sentido, aunque está previsto que el camino de DANNY esté un poco más al oeste, de la "huella" o traza de aguas frías dejada por BILL. De todos modos, este ciclon me parece un completo BLUF... Totalmente amorfo y casi fuera de lo clasificable como "tropical", al menos de forma neta, aunque parta de una onda tropical... Solamente por su evolución gracias a la interacción con una baja en altura, me parece más de subtropical que otra cosa...
Pues eso.........
000
WTNT45 KNHC 280840
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF DANNY
SINCE AROUND 05 UTC AND FOUND THAT DANNY IS BARELY A TROPICAL
STORM...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED ONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF THE CENTER BEING COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONG SHEAR NEARBY MOST LIKELY WILL
REMOVE THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN AT ANY TIME. SINCE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE BUILDING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...WITH A LARGE TROUGH
APPROACHING DANNY...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN THE TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE DANNY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24 HOURS.
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF DANNY AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS NOT
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE REGION
CURRENTLY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CASE THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR THE
FORECAST UNEXPECTEDLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 29.5N 74.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 74.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 34.2N 74.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 42.5N 67.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0600Z 52.0N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Sigue rebajándose el pico de intensidad......... Y yo apuesto por una disipación temprana, sin ni siquiera transición extratropical...
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na de na. :-[
gale, yo si espero transicion extratropical, de hecho todos los modelos como europeo, jma, gfs, ukmo, gme etc etc(los de meteociel) ven una B de 1005mB asomando por nuea escocia en 4-5 dias. ;)
ya esta por aqui el amigo ávila... ;D
initial 28/0900z 29.5n 74.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 28/1800z 31.3n 74.7w 40 kt
24hr VT 29/0600z 34.2n 74.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 29/1800z 38.5n 71.5w 40 kt
48hr VT 30/0600z 42.5n 67.0w 40 kt
72hr VT 31/0600z 47.5n 59.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 01/0600z 52.0n 47.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 02/0600z 54.0n 26.0w 45 kt...extratropical
$$
forecaster Avila
(http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/7707/at200905modelw.gif)
(http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/1934/at200905modelintensity.gif)
(http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/8138/at200905satv.jpg)
esperaba mucho mas la verdad... :(
un saludo ;)
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Ahora lo que falta hoy es que Danny se intensifique y que todos los Pronósticos del Centro Nacional de Huracanes tengan que cambiarlos de nuevo :DDD
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ya no se ni como es TT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 30.1N 75.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 32.5N 75.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 36.2N 74.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 40.7N 70.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 44.6N 65.1W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 49.6N 52.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1200Z 52.5N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1200Z 54.5N 21.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
(http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/6660/143318w5nlsm.gif)
va a rozar toda la costa este de eeuu para posteriormente tocar tierra en la peninsula de neuva escocia.
un saludo ;)
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esta muerto... :-[
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.4N 75.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 32.7N 75.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 37.3N 73.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 41.9N 68.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 61.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1800Z 50.5N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z 55.0N 22.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
ya no cuelgo ni satelite.no llega ni a 35 kt(34.7kt actualmente)
un saludo ;)
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(http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/6972/avnl.jpg)
adios danny... :-[
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 34.3N 74.6W 30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
12HR VT 29/1800Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0600Z 41.2N 69.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1800Z 46.2N 62.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 31/0600Z 49.5N 56.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0600Z 54.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0600Z 56.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/0600Z 57.0N 10.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
un saludo ;)
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amigaaaa, hay que ver como es el amoooor!!
gavilan ooooo.......PALOOOOOOMA!! evil
;D
vaya pedazo de bola convectiva que tiene danny en estos momentos en la costa este... :o
(http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/6972/avnl.jpg)
(http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/5126/visl.jpg)
un saludo ;)