Impacto ............................ !!
16/2130 UTC 16.9S 50.7E T6.0/6.5 IVAN -- South Indian Ocean
17/0230 UTC 17.1S 50.1E T5.5/6.5 IVAN -- South Indian Ocean
Afortunadamente (relativamente), parece que IVAN perdía algo de potencia antes de tocar tierra... Aún así parece que ha llegado con vientos sostenidos de 100 KT, un categoría 3.
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 02/07/08 12.9S 60.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/07/08 14.5S 62.3E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/08/08 15.5S 63.3E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/08/08 16.1S 63.1E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/09/08 15.7S 63.1E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/09/08 15.4S 63.8E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/10/08 14.9S 64.5E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/10/08 14.6S 64.9E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 02/11/08 14.2S 65.1E 100 Category 2
18 GMT 02/11/08 14.3S 64.9E 100 Category 2
06 GMT 02/12/08 14.1S 64.4E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/12/08 14S 63.8E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/13/08 13.8S 62.2E 45 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/13/08 13.3S 60.6E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/14/08 13.4S 59.5E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/14/08 14.2S 57.4E 85 Category 1
06 GMT 02/15/08 15.3S 55.7E 90 Category 1
18 GMT 02/15/08 16.1S 53.9E 110 Category 2
00 GMT 02/16/08 16.4S 53.1E 110 Category 2
06 GMT 02/16/08 16.2S 52.6E 115 Category 3
12 GMT 02/16/08 16.4S 51.9E 130 Category 3
18 GMT 02/16/08 16.7S 51.1E 130 Category 3
00 GMT 02/17/08 16.9S 50.5E 125 Category 3Adjunto el último boletín sobre IVÁN, del Joint Typhoon Warning Center, de las
00 UTC:ZCZC 848
WTIO30 FMEE 170006
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNIONTROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/11/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 50.5E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 080 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.2S/47.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9S/46.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.5S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 20.6S/44.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 21.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.0-
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
HURRICANE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE ITS LANDFALL IN THE NORTH OF THE
HARBOR
CITY OF TAMATAVE (NEAR FENOARIVO-ATSINANANA) ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 0600Z
AND
0900Z
WITH MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 110KT
WITH
GUSTS UP TO 155 KT.BECAUSE THE EYE IS LARGE (ABOUT 40 NM DIAMETER), THE RATHER QUITE
PERIOD
BETWEEN THE TWO STRIKES OF STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE UP TO 2 HOURS
LONG
FOR THE AREA WHICH ARE CROSSED BY THE LARGEST DIAMETER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT)
SHOULD
CONCERN THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND THEN
HOURS
AFTER HOURS THE ALL COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO
TOAMASINA IN
THE SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND.
AFTER THE LANFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEAKENING RAPIDLY BUT NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS SOULD OCCUR OVER SEA BETWEEN 18S AND 22S UP TO 100 NM
FROM
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=
NNNN
Imagen de la RAMMB-CIRA, en falso color.