Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Enero 17, 2009, 21:40:46 pm
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Esta isla está cercada por dos sistemas tropicales que tienen muy buen aspecto! Este está en las costas occidentales, camino de suráfrica.
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Muy buen aspecto, aunque veremos como se comporta, porque ultimamente los sistemas salidos de esa zona se esfuman rapidamente :-X
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Muy buen aspecto, aunque veremos como se comporta, porque ultimamente los sistemas salidos de esa zona se esfuman rapidamente :-X
Parece que a este ciclón le ha dado por llevarte la contraria, Angetotti :P
ZCZC 591
WTIO30 FMEE 191245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1200 UTC :
21.8S / 41.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 19.9S/42.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 21.8S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.6S/47.6E OVERLAND.
72H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND CAN SUPPORT
4.0
-, BUT FINAL T NUMBER IS RESTRICTED TO 3.5+ DUE TO DVORAK RULES
CONSTRAINTS.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE, BUT A HINT OF AN EYE IS
EXHIBITED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 0641Z)
FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE
UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A
STRENGTHENING
POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
SO FANELE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE 36 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE
WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 201215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1200 UTC :
20.2S / 42.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 120 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.6S/43.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.2S/44.9E OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/47.0E OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 26.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
..
72H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 28.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FANELE HAS GONE ON ITS INTENSIFYCATION UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS MORE
CONCENTRETED, AND EYE IS WARM
ER
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED. HOWEVER A
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED UP TO TAU 18 SOUTH TO THE MORONDAVE/MOROMBE AREA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND EXIT OVER SEAS UP TO
TAU 36H, WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
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100 KT de vientos sostenidos en media diezminutal... WOW! :o :o :o :o No presenta un ojo muy bien definido... :-\
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Otras fuentes le otorgan 90 KT de vientos sostenidos, aunque no sé si será en media minutal................
(http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/8194/2009sh091kmirimg2009012dh3.gif)
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Yo no soy un entendido de los ciclones y tengo una curiosidad, ¿es normal que se formen en Enero?
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Yo no soy un entendido de los ciclones y tengo una curiosidad, ¿es normal que se formen en Enero?
En esa parte del mundo creo que están en plena temporada, Soloestratos :)
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Gracias Gale, ya decía yo....Entonces no parais los que os gustan seguir estos fenómenos meteorológicos. :D1 :D1
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Hace unas horas que ha impactado en tierras de Madagascar :o
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Ha salido al Oceano y esperan un leve fortalecimiento, antes de que se tope con aguas extratropicales :o ::)
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Ha salido al Oceano y esperan un leve fortalecimiento, antes de que se tope con aguas extratropicales :o ::)
Ese fortalecimiento se esperaba por su transición extratropical... La última imagen que muestra la NRL lo da completamente descompuesto, por lo que podemos finalizar la vida de este ciclón :P
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Hola a todos, que bien por lo menos por esas aguas estan en plena temporada, mientras esperamos la temporada del atlantico 2009!!!!
Aqui una imagen del Ciclon FANELE en su mejor momento!!!
(http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/9527/fanelemodisgx2.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
Increible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Here two images of eye Fanele
(http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/4372/20090120123549of2.th.png) (http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/4372/20090120123549of2.png)
(http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/3325/200901200717terraxvishknj5.th.jpg) (http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/3325/200901200717terraxvishknj5.jpg)
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Good ones, Crostorm ! ;)