65 kts - 974 mb

 

ZCZC 822
WTIO30 FMEE 171829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)


0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 1800 UTC :

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 86.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 11.6S/86.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 11.5S/85.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 11.3S/84.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.5-.
"EX ARIEL" REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED OUTSIDE THE RESIDUAL FLUCTUATING CONVECTION WHICH MAINTAINS
ITSELF IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE LOW CIRCULATION. THE
CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION IS VERY ASSYMETRICAL WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT
ONLY
EXISTING IN THE SOU
THERN SEMI-CIRCLE MOSTLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT ON THE EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY ATTEMPT AT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF "EX ARIEL" WHICH
SHOULD
THEREFORE KEEP ON FILLING UP SLOWLY.
THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY WESTWARDS DURING THE PAST 24H
MAY
DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CHAGOS AS THE LATTER ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED.=

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BULLETIN DU 17 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:


*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-ARIEL

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 17 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.6 SUD / 86.8 EST
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3460 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 3 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11.5S/85.3E
DEPR. SE COMBLANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11S/83E


35kts--996mb

  30 kts - 1000mb

25kts--1004mb

 :O* :O*

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