Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: deltaforce en Noviembre 12, 2007, 22:45:30 pm
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:O* 15kts - 1010mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1532850560.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1532850560.html)
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:O* :O*
(http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/4528/xxirmet5sidry97s12novvvwx6.gif) (http://imageshack.us)
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IDW10900
UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 5:17pm WDT on Tuesday the 13th of November 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
Tropical Low at noon WDT
Location :near 5.4S 93E
southwest of Sumatra, approximately 900 kilometres north
northwest of the Cocos Islands.
Central Pressure :1002hPa
Recent movement :slowly southwest
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : high
Thursday : high
Friday : high
REMARKS - The low has shown some recent indications of development which is
expected to continue given that generally favourable conditions are expected in
the next day or so. There is now a high chance of cyclone intensity being
reached on Wednesday and the following two days. The most likely movement of the
low is towards the southwest. High Seas Warnings for gales have been issued,
please refer to latest warning IDW23100 for updated information.
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No esperan que se desarrolle >:( >:( >:(
a ver que pasa ::)
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No esperan que se desarrolle >:( >:( >:(
a ver que pasa ::)
Pues según la última información de Deltaforce, es todo lo contrario, jejeje :P Tiene una pinta soverbia :D1
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No esperan que se desarrolle >:( >:( >:(
a ver que pasa ::)
Pues según la última información de Deltaforce, es todo lo contrario, jejeje :P Tiene una pinta soverbia :D1
aaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy, no lei ese texto :-\ :-\ :-\
por cierto, se le ve fenomenal beer
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Sistema Tropical 97S
25 kts - 1002 mb
(http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/7641/hemisferiosurzh3.jpg)
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se intensifica, muy pronto nacera otro ciclon tropical ::) ::) ::)
saludos
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Ha nacido LEE. :O*
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Ciclón Tropical LEE - Categoría TT -
55 kts - 982 mb
(http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/7899/hemisferiosurxk7.jpg)
(http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/6567/australia2mu1.gif)
Se dirige al hacia el Sur, sin más pena que gloria (gracias a dios).
Saludos.
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60 kts - 978 mb
(http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/1016/leedy6.jpg)
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Ciclón Tropical LEE - Categoría TT -
55 kts - 982 mb
(http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/7899/hemisferiosurxk7.jpg)
(http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/6567/australia2mu1.gif)
Se dirige al hacia el Sur, sin más pena que gloria (gracias a dios).
Saludos.
pues creo que no.
Pronostican un giro hacia el oeste, posiblemente hacia madasgascar ::) ::) ::)
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Me parece que lo han ascendido a ciclón de categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir-Simpson...
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La Navy todavía lo tiene con 60 kts, Tormenta Tropical. Mientras que el Tropical Weather le da 65 kts, Categoría 1.
Esto no hay quien lo entienda. Con SIDR ha ocurrido algo parecido, pero al revés.
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:DDD cuando se trata de actualizar...la navy esta cojeando de una pata....por lo menos lo que al hemisferio sur se refiere :<<O
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LEE cambia de nombre al entrar en jurisdicción de Reunión. A partir de ahora, se llamará ARIEL.
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65 kts - 974 mb
(http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/9045/arielmg7.jpg)
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BULLETIN DU 16 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:
*****************************************************
(http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/4998/zoomderniere02exleeariebe1.png) (http://imageshack.us)
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ARIEL EX-LEE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 986 HPA.
POSITION LE 16 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.8 SUD / 87.3 EST
(ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3500 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12.3S/85.6E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.3S/83.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.1S/81E
ATTENTION:
LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
55kts - 982mb
CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SAMEDI 17 NOVEMBRE A 04H30 LOCALES
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ZCZC 822
WTIO30 FMEE 171829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL)
2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 86.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 11.6S/86.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 11.5S/85.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 11.3S/84.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 11.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.5-.
"EX ARIEL" REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED OUTSIDE THE RESIDUAL FLUCTUATING CONVECTION WHICH MAINTAINS
ITSELF IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE LOW CIRCULATION. THE
CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION IS VERY ASSYMETRICAL WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT
ONLY
EXISTING IN THE SOU
THERN SEMI-CIRCLE MOSTLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT ON THE EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY ATTEMPT AT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF "EX ARIEL" WHICH
SHOULD
THEREFORE KEEP ON FILLING UP SLOWLY.
THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY WESTWARDS DURING THE PAST 24H
MAY
DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CHAGOS AS THE LATTER ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AS EXPECTED.=
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BULLETIN DU 17 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE EX-ARIEL
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 17 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.6 SUD / 86.8 EST
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES HUIT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3460 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 3 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11.5S/85.3E
DEPR. SE COMBLANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11S/83E
35kts--996mb
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Ciclón Tropical LEE/ARIEL - TT -
35 kts - 996 mb
(http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/4520/hemisferiosurxv0.jpg)
Trayectoria Sur.
No se espera que afecte a tierra.
Saludos.
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30 kts - 1000mb
(http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/1896/leewp9.jpg)
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25 kts - 1004 mb
En fase de disipación.
Saludos.
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25kts--1004mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1367947843.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1367947843.html)
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:O* sigue dando tumbos por alli ..se resiste el ¨tio Lee ¨ evil 25kts--NAmb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1485008531.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1485008531.html)
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:O* :O*
y sigue
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1684355558.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1684355558.html)