CICLÓN TROPICAL INTENSO HONDO925mb-105kt (Reunión)
08/0230 UTC 15.1S 83.4E
T5.5/6.5 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean 07/2030 UTC 15.0S 83.1E T6.5/6.5 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.4S/83.8E,
MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..24H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.0S/84.3E,
MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..36H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4S/85.4E,
MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..48H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.0E,
MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.60H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.3S/86.2E,
MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.72H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.7S/85.7E, MAX WIND=
050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0+, CI=6.5+
HONDO SEEMS H
AVING REACH ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY YESTERDAY, HOWEVER
IT
ALWAYS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE,
BUT CONVECTION IS LESS COLD.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY)
AND
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
HONDO
IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.
IT HAS TRACKED SLOWLY EASTWARDS DURING THE VERY LAST HOURS, BUT
IS
EXPECTED TO RESTART SOON SOUTHEASTWARDS.HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO
KEEP
ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS
TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER
SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURESResumiendo, comienza a perder fuerza, conforme se acerca a aguas más frías.
Debido a que su movimiento ha sido lento, no ha mantenido tanta intensidad como se le refieren a huracanes anulares. Recordad que los huracanes anulares se caracterizan por mantener una estabilidad en su potencia una vez alcanzan su vida máxima de intensidad: HONDO alcanzo demasiada fuerza para un huracán de este tipo, y no ha sido estable en su fuerza. Veremos si ahora que ha rebajado sus pretensiones, pero mantiene su estrcutura circular, es capaz de aguantar