Brutal esa composición multisensor final, Torre
Según la Navy, HONDO ha seguido intensificándose........ Ahora le mete:
125 KT y 929 mb El DVORAK sigue siendo de 6 para las 8.30 UTC.
El JTWC aún le rebaja más la presión y sube el DVORAK a 6.5...
ZCZC 365
WTIO30 FMEE 071223
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNIONTROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 1200 UTC :
15.0S / 82.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 2.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 080 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 15.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.0S/83.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 16.7S/84.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.0S/85.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 19.5S/86.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5+
HONDO HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOURS AND SHOWS AN ANNULAR
PATTERN(YET SLIGHTLY ERODED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART) ON THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY
(CF AQUA 0757Z). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ; LOW LEVELS INFLOWS
ARE
WELL ESTABLISHED, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RATHER
GOOD. HOWEVER TH
E SYSTEM
HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY) AND SHOULD
THEN
QUICKLY REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HONDO IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTRO
PICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER
SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.=
NNNN
Parece que se irá debilitando...
Vida de HONDO según Wunderground:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 02/04/08 13.1S 79.9E 35 Tropical Depression
12 GMT 02/05/08 13.1S 79.9E 35 Tropical Depression
00 GMT 02/05/08 13.5S 80.3E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 02/05/08 13.7S 80.9E 75 Category 1
00 GMT 02/06/08 14S 81.0E 85 Category 1
12 GMT 02/06/08 14.2S 81.8E 105 Category 2
18 GMT 02/06/08 14.4S 82.0E 140 Category 4
06 GMT 02/07/08 14.7S 82.7E 140 Category 4