Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Junio 20, 2017, 15:19:50 pm
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 200852
TCDAT3
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is
gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is
struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and
the radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the
system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.
The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern
portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and
Florida. The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen
some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a
little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn
around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into
the westerlies. Overall, there has been a left shift of the track
guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast
track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model
consensus, especially at 36-48 h. Given the nature of the
circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards
extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to
not focus on the details of the track forecast.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.
The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XzWRpLppUoQ/WUkfkLw8MvI/AAAAAAAAF20/ZgUr9eAlxIMCGYbUSyphykC6CcSvifuQgCJoC/w530-h353-rw/ethte.gif)
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Menudo aspecto tiene en el canal visible del GOES16... Pero no consolida un centro de circulación de niveles bajos, en donde se aprecian varios mesovórtices un tanto caóticos.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCxLkrCWAAAQPDM.jpg)
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ayer por la tarde nacía CINDY en el corazón del GOM... Sin embargo, la alta cizalladura reinante mantiene al ciclón tropical pobremente organizado aunque con 50 KT de intensidad inicial.
Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby
ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on
peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively,
and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly
appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4,
V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the
center of Cindy for the past several hours.
The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent
reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the
next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward
and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong
subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The
18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new
NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to
the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation
and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east
of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of
the track forecast.
Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in
strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by
gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong
vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the
development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC
intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a
little above the intensity consensus model IVCN.
The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast
quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal
and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of
the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast.
The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 26.4N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 28.1N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.8N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 31.4N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 34.7N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS OPCCuenta verificada @NWSOPC 3 hHace 3 horas
0245Z Geocolor satellite image of #TropicalStorm #Cindy in the #GulfofMexico along w/#NHC graphical advisory information.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DC0QAnbXYAE7sFg.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DC0QBbXUIAAuTsi.jpg)
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CINDY ha tocado tierra entre Texas y Luisiana hace unas horas... Y justo ha desarrollado una estructura en forma de ojo después de hacerlo.
Josh MorgermanCuenta verificada @iCyclone 3 hHace 3 horas
Weird. #TropicalStormCINDY looks waaaay sexier (structurally) now that it's made landfall. Almost looks like it has a core. Cool.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DC64T-KVwAEtvUI.jpg)