Tenemos ya a la TS Imelda al E de las costas de Madagascar. No se espera que afecte la isla.
Las previsiones apuntan a un ciclón de cat.3, veremos si lo consigue.

Imelda ha aumentado la velocidad de sus vientos a 50kts (92,6 km/h) moviéndose al WSW a 13 nudos... Un "eyewall" en formación se observa en las últimas imágenes de satélite, señal de que continúa intensificándose.

Imelda no se espera que amenace a áreas de tierra, seguirá moviéndose hacia el W hasta que un centro de bajas presiones acercándose desde el oeste le haga virar rumbo SE, alejándole de áreas pobladas.

Con conexión móvil mi análisis no da para más 

Su presentación satelital no ha mejorado mucho desde entonces, me parece...

Qué pena no disponer de más tiempo para acompañarte en el seguimiento, Santi

Boletín del Servicio Meteorológico de Reunión.

WTIO30 FMEE 100644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (IMELDA)
2.A POSITION 2013/04/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 58.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/04/10 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/04/11 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/04/11 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/04/12 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/04/12 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/04/13 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/04/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/04/15 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-
 
0155Z (F17) AND 0410Z (F18) SSMIS MW PICTURES SHOW THAT GENERAL PATTERN OF
THE SYSTEM HAS A LITTLE DEGRADED. THE EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED ON 91GHZ
BUT IT REMAINS VERY IRREGULAR. INFRA-RED CLASSICAL IMAGERY PRESENTS A
CURVED BAND WRAPPING ON 1.1 LAP (DT AT 4.0+). MET IS AT 4.5 AND PT AT 4.0.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65KT. FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM RECURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST DAYS,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD. ON AND AFTER TAU 24, THE
STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHERLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND OF A
BAROMETRIC COL SOUTHWARD. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK. ON AND AFTER 72 TAU, IT SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-EASTWARD.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON THIS SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AND TO ACCELERATE AHEAD A DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF THE RSMC IS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE DIFFERENT
NWP MODELS BECAUSE SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING AROUND
57E LONGITUDE AS REGARDS OF SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
FAVOURABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOWS. SST ARE VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO 18
DEGREES LATITUDE. THEREFORE, SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY UNTIL THURSDAY.
ON AND AFTER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING PHASE

Aparece hoy bastante debilitado este ciclón......... ¿Cizalladura y aire seco? Su aspecto es más bien el de estar ingiriendo aire seco.

No obstante, aun le pronostican re-fortalecimiento en las próximas horas.