000WTPZ41 KNHC 070856TCDEP1TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016This morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorlyorganized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associatedshapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of thecenter. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported bythe TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Strong, persistentsoutherly shear should induce a weakening trend as the systemapproaches the coast. Most of the global models indicate that thesystem will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so,and the NHC forecast reflects this scenario.With a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motionare highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity. However,the low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwavetrough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallowcyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepecthrough the forecast period. The official forecast is based on ablend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and isslightly to the right of the previous advisory.The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavyrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods andmud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of highterrain.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Roberts