000WTNT41 KNHC 130236TCDAT1TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620111100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011THROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSEOVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOMECONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTIONHAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNALMINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE INTENSITYESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THEINITIAL INTENSITY.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THESOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVEGENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTIONTOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEWFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THEINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THETRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVINGTOWARD COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECASTTO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORTWINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FORMODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BYEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTALSYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THEFRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER. THEINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OFTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 13/0300Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 37.8N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 39.3N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 40.3N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z 40.3N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BEVEN
000WTNT41 KNHC 130837TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THECENTER. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0553 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTRALFEATURES OF THE SYSTEM WERE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH MORECURVATURE NOTED. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AND 35 KTFROM TAFB/SAB WITH AN AMSU-BASED ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS OF 37 KT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION AND STRUCTURALIMPROVEMENTS IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR.FRANKLIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT TO INTENSIFY AS IT WILL SOONBE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECASTTO INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CATCHING THE STORM FROMBEHIND. THUS...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THENHC FORECAST...SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. ITSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE TYPES OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEMSHAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BESURPRISING IF THE STORM BRIEFLY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THANPREDICTED. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS ESTIMATEDAT 055/17. FRANKLIN IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERNPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACKTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THEEAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE. THE LATEST FORECAST ISBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES JUST TOTHE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT CANBE SEEN A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND THISFEATURE...ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULDCAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEMSMALL SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 13/0900Z 37.9N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 39.0N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 40.0N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1800Z 40.4N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0600Z 40.0N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BLAKE
000WTNT41 KNHC 131434TCDAT1TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620111100 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HASPERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN. PASSIVEMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVELEYE-LIKE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND THAT COULDBE WHEN FRANKLIN POSSIBLY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KT.SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ERODEDSOMEWHAT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVELSHEAR AND COOLER WATER BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITYOF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OFT3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...38 KT FROMCIRA-AMSU...AND 39 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/19 BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVESATELLITE FIXES. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLYMID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT ISMOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PROGRESSIVEPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICHSHOULD KEEP FRANKLIN MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKAND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.FRANKLIN LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ENTERING AWEAKENING PHASE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C AND WESTERLYVERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TOMERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24-36 HOURS INDUCING EXTRATROPICALTRANSITION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGHBAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS ASIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITYFORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWERTHAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 13/1500Z 39.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 39.9N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 40.6N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/0000Z 40.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/1200Z 40.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER STEWART
000WTNT31 KNHC 132032TCPAT1BULLETINTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011...FRANKLIN WEAKENING OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...39.7N 55.5WABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM NE OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. FRANKLIN ISMOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERALMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND FRANKLIN SHOULD LOSE ITSTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KMFROM THE CENTER.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------NONE.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.$$FORECASTER STEWART
000WTNT41 KNHC 140244TCDAT1POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620111100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERDATA...INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVERTHE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LOW IS MOVING 065/23 AND IS EXPECTED TOTURN EASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. AFTER THAT...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THESYSTEM WEAKENS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR.THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ONTHIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND INHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/0300Z 40.5N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 15/0000Z 40.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/1200Z 39.5N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0000Z 38.0N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BEVEN