000
WTNT41 KNHC 130236
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNAL
MINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS.  IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 36.6N  61.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 37.8N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 39.3N  54.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 40.3N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  15/0000Z 40.3N  45.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

A los del CNH les gusta mucho hablar de transiciones extratropicales, pero a estos sistemas les cuesta realizarlas. Si no, al tiempo

000
WTNT41 KNHC 130837
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A
LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0553 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL
FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM WERE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH MORE
CURVATURE NOTED.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB WITH AN AMSU-BASED ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS OF 37 KT.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION AND STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35
KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR.

FRANKLIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT TO INTENSIFY AS IT WILL SOON
BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CATCHING THE STORM FROM
BEHIND.  THUS...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE TYPES OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS
HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF THE STORM BRIEFLY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED. 

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS ESTIMATED
AT 055/17.  FRANKLIN IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN MID-LATITUDE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE.  THE LATEST FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  A COLD FRONT CAN
BE SEEN A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM
SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 37.9N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 39.0N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 40.0N  52.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  14/1800Z 40.4N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  15/0600Z 40.0N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

No sé por qué, pero FRANKLIN me resulta extremadamente bello... Amén de haberse formado en un sitio un poco raro, aunque con precedentes anteriores de ciclones tropicales en ese área. A pesar de todo, impresionante sistema convectivo el que le acompaña

Trayectoria evil



Sat.



Los últimos datos de FRANKLIN son:

06L.FRANKLIN.40kts.1004mb.38.6N.58.9W

Que sorpresa me he llevado con este sistema. No me esperaba que se formase en esa zona Veremos a ver cuanto dura. De momento, la prevision lo lleva al medio del Atlántico, dirección Islas Azores evil

No me extraña, con valores altos de 40-60 kts 

Vía twitter, me llega el aviso nº5 del NHC.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 132032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...FRANKLIN WEAKENING OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. FRANKLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND FRANKLIN SHOULD LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

...FRANKLIN WEAKENING OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...

FRANKLIN se debilita en el lejano atlántico norte

Que rara la zona donde se ha formado :S