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Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Julio 01, 2018, 09:14:11 am

Título: Tormenta tropical FABIO 07E, EPAC, julio 2018
Publicado por: Gale en Julio 01, 2018, 09:14:11 am
Tenemos el 7º ciclón tropical de la temporada en el EPAC... y pronto se convertirá en la siguiente tormenta tropical. Previsto que llegue a huracán, pero de nuevo sin afectar a tierra.

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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The depression is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep
convective bands have been gaining curvature, but remain limited to
the southeast of the estimated center.  Since the Dvorak
classifications are unchanged at 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial wind speed is held at that value.  This intensity estimate
is also consistent with the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin.  Even though the system is currently not
very strong, the circulation is quite large with the outer bands
extending about 300 n mi from the center.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  This general
motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level
ridge to the northeast of the system remains the primary steering
feature.  The track models are in very good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction.  The
cyclone is expected to remain out to sea through the forecast
period.

Environmental conditions are quite ideal for the depression to
strengthen during the next few days with SSTs of 28-29C, vertical
wind shear less than 10 kt, and a fairly moist low- to mid-level
air mass.  The models respond to these favorable conditions by
unanimously showing the depression becoming a hurricane within the
next few days.  However, the models disagree on how strong the
system might get before it reaches cooler waters in a few days.  The
SHIPS and LGEM models show the system reaching major hurricane
strength while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models are notably weaker.
Regardless of how strong the system becomes, the strengthening trend
should end shortly after 3 days when the cyclone is expected to move
over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one and is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus models.
This forecast is slightly below the models in the short term as the
large size of the system could make the initial strengthening
process more gradual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 11.3N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 11.7N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.1N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 13.7N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 15.4N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 17.8N 122.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Título: Re:Tormenta tropical FABIO 07E, EPAC, julio 2018
Publicado por: Gale en Julio 01, 2018, 15:17:14 pm
Ya tenemos a FABIO... ::) Podría llegar a ser huracán mayor en unos pocos días...

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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very
cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area
of outer banding.  A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system
has not yet developed a tight inner core.  However, the various
satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt.  Thus, the cyclone
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative
initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is 285/11.  The track guidance is in good
agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,
with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast
period.  There has been little change in the guidance since the
previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the
previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model
consensus.

Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light
vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during that time.  There remains some
spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less
intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models.  The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of
the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24
h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h.  It should be noted
that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS
and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.  After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily
decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Además se convierte en la 6ª tempestad nombrada más temprana desde que se tienen registros... interesante.

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Tropical Storm #Fabio has formed overnight, making it the earliest 6th named storm on record in the eastern Pacific basin. Now while he is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday, he will remain well offshore.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhBVbjWW0AAKE0x.jpg)