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Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015  (Leído 4124 veces)

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Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« en: Septiembre 09, 2015, 17:55:49 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 11:25am

Se forma la DT08L al ESE de Bermuda. La trayectoria lo lleva a rodear el anticiclón de Las Azores:





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 60.8W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
« Última modificación: Septiembre 10, 2015, 10:25:26 am por Gale »
Caracas, Venezuela

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Re:Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #1 en: Septiembre 10, 2015, 10:24:48 am »
Ya tenemos a HENRI........... en una posición en la que probablemente pronto se verá afectado por los westerlies... iniciando un largo viaje hacia Europa, ya veremos en qué términos...

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 100244
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

Recently received ASCAT-B scatterometer data showed an area of 35-40
kt wind vectors in the convection about 75-100 n mi east of the
center. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 35 kt and the cyclone is upgraded to a
tropical storm. Despite the upgrade, Henri remains a disorganized
system
, with the low-level center remaining exposed to the west of
the convection due to 15-20 kt of shear.  In addition, microwave
satellite data and experimental European multispectral satellite
imagery suggest a tongue of dry air is entraining into the cyclone
around the west, south, and southeast sides of the circulation.

Henri has started its expected northward track with the initial
motion of 355/4.  For the next 36-48 hours, the cyclone should move
generally northward with an increase in forward speed between the
subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough moving
eastward through the eastern United States.  After that time, Henri
should turn northeastward and eastward as it enters the westerlies.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies
a little south of the center of the guidance envelope after 36 hours
due to a northward shift in the guidance.

The dynamical models suggest that the shear should subside during
the next 36-48 hours, and that the dry air entrainment should also
decrease.  This combination should allow Henri to strengthen until
it reaches colder sea surface temperatures north of the Gulf Stream
in a little under 48 hours.  After that, the cyclone is expected to
become extratropical as it merges with a frontal system.  The new
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near 50 kt in 36-48
hours, followed by gradual weakening.  The first 48 hours are in
best agreement with the SHIPS model, and the intensities after
extratropical transition are based on input from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 31.3N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 32.8N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 35.3N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 38.6N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 42.4N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 47.5N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/0000Z 47.5N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/0000Z 47.0N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven



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Re:Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #2 en: Septiembre 10, 2015, 12:08:39 pm »
Hoy unos cuantos modelos envían con movimiento rapido a Henri  frente a las costas portuguesas en calidad de TS.


Desconectado Gale

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Re:Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 10, 2015, 17:53:22 pm »
Los efectos de Henri en la isla de Bermuda... ::)

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BWS - Bermuda Weather Service

As of the latest 12 noon advisory on Thursday 10th September, TS Henri is now no longer a threat as it begins to accelerate north then northeast around 200 nautical miles to the east of Bermuda. The only significant impact TS Henri brought to the Island was some beach erosion along south and east facing shores, due to associated moderate easterly swells.

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Re:Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 10, 2015, 19:36:08 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 1pm

Al ENE de Bermuda afectada por la subsidencia y el aire seco, la cizalladura relajándose:







11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 10
 Location: 32.6°N 60.8°W
 Moving: N at 9 mph
 Min pressure: 1008 mb
 Max sustained: 40 mph
Caracas, Venezuela

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Re:Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 11, 2015, 18:25:24 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 12pm

Ubicada en el Atlántico al Sur de la Isla de Terranova, Canadá



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Caracas, Venezuela

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Desconectado Gale

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Re:Tormenta tropical HENRI 08L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 12, 2015, 09:59:00 am »
HENRI se disuelve................. desaparece como ciclón tropical...

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 112033
TCDAT3

REMNANTS OF HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

Henri is no longer a tropical cyclone.  Visible images clearly show
that Henri lacks a well-defined center, with scatterometer and
satellite data also suggesting the circulation has degraded into a
southeast-to-northwest oriented trough.  The scatterometer did show
a small area of 35-kt winds, so that intensity is kept.

The remnants of Henri are expected to trek northeastward then
eastward over the North Atlantic and should transition into an
extratropical low on Saturday.  Future information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service Ocean Prediction Center...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 40.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF HENRI
 12H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


 



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