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Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015  (Leído 4003 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« en: Septiembre 18, 2015, 17:44:12 pm »
Citar
000
WTNT45 KNHC 181432
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure over the
tropical eastern Atlantic has acquired sufficient organization to be
classified as a tropical depression.  The low-level center appears
embedded beneath a relatively small cluster of deep convection, but
convective banding is also increasing to the west and north.  The
initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB and recent ASCAT data.

The depression is located near the southwestern edge of a mid-level
anticyclone, giving the cyclone an initial motion of 285/8 kt.  The
anticyclone is expected to move westward in tandem with the
depression over the next couple of days, keeping it on a general
west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.  By days 4
and 5, however, there is significant uncertainty in the track
forecast.  The GFS and GFDL show the cyclone feeling the influence
of an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic, which
turns the depression northward.  The ECMWF and UKMET, on the other
hand, keep the ridge as the dominant influence and continue a
west-northwestward motion.  Due to the large spread in the guidance,
the official forecast shows the cyclone slowing down considerably by
days 4 and 5, and is a little west of the model consensus aids at
those times.

The environment looks conducive for at least gradual strengthening
during the forecast period.  Sea surface temperatures are warm,
vertical shear should remain generally low, and environmental
moisture patterns appear favorable for at least the next two days.
Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models show the cyclone
threading the needle beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, with
mid-level dry air possibly getting into the western part of the
cyclone's circulation.  This pattern makes the intensity forecast
complicated because hostile upper-level winds won't be too far away,
and the ultimate strength of the cyclone will depend heavily on its
eventual track.  For now, the NHC official forecast shows only
gradual strengthening through day 4, more or less in line with the
SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 13.1N  36.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 13.4N  37.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 14.2N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 15.2N  40.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 16.4N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 18.3N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 19.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 20.0N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
« Última modificación: Septiembre 19, 2015, 11:22:59 am por Gale »

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Re:Depresion tropical 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #1 en: Septiembre 18, 2015, 19:35:00 pm »
hora local de Caracas 1pm

...SE FORMA LA DECIMA DEPRESION DE LA TEMPORADA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO
ORIENTAL...

RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.1 NORTE 36.7 OESTE                             
CERCA DE 870 MI...1405 KM AL OESTESUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE       
CABO VERDE                                                           
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H               
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H   
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARES...29.80 PULGADAS

Caracas, Venezuela

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Desconectado Gale

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Re:Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #2 en: Septiembre 19, 2015, 11:26:42 am »
Ya tenemos a IDA en marcha... y los pronósticos indican una progresiva intensificación para rozar la categoría de huracán en pocos días...

Por ahora, el rumbo previsto le lleva a internarse en aguas del Atlántico Central...

Citar
000
WTNT45 KNHC 190837
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015

The overall organization of Ida's cloud pattern continues to
increase.  Banding features are becoming more prominent in the
southern part of the circulation, with a new band forming on the
west side.  In addition, a burst of convection has been ongoing
during the past few hours near the apparent center.  Satellite
classifications still support an intensity of 35 kt, and this value
is used as the initial wind speed.

Satellite fixes suggest that the northwestward motion of Ida has
sped up to 9 kt this morning.  A mid-level ridge is expected to
remain the dominant steering mechanism for the next couple of days,
causing the storm to move to the west-northwest or northwest during
that time.  Models are in good agreement and only a slight
northward adjustment was made to the official forecast then.  Beyond
2 days, there is considerable uncertainty on how an amplifying
trough over the east-central Atlantic will affect Ida.  The cyclone
seems likely to slow down due to steering currents collapsing, but
there is poor agreement on whether the trough will pick up Ida,
sending the storm east-northeastward, or leave the storm behind. For
example, the normally reliable ECMWF and GFS models are going in
opposite directions at day 5, with the ECMWF favoring a stronger
trough solution while the GFS has Ida missing the trough and
drifting westward.  With so much uncertainty, I have elected to show
a stationary Ida after day 3, preferring not to commit to
either solution at this time. This forecast blends the previous
forecast with the model consensus, although leans more heavily on
the former.

While the shear near Ida is low for now, most of the global models
show an increase during the next day or so.  This is expected to
somewhat temper future strengthening, although since most of the
other environmental factors are still favorable, a gradual
intensification is forecast. The long-range intensity prediction,
however, is very complex due to the potential interaction of the
trough, which yields very different shear profiles, along with dry
air aloft and possible upwelling of cooler water as Ida moves
slowly.  With the track more uncertain than average and these
challenging factors, it seems prudent to remain conservative with
the wind speed forecast. The official intensity forecast is close to
the previous one, which ends up on the low side of the guidance at
days 4/5.  It almost goes without saying that these conditions are
leading me to have a rather low confidence in the intensity forecast
at 72 hours and beyond.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 14.4N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 15.3N  39.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 16.5N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 17.6N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 18.9N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 20.5N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 20.5N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 20.5N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Re:Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 19, 2015, 21:27:46 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 3pm

La trayectoria de Ida es similar al de la DT09L, por lo que va a presentar el mismo problema con la cizalladura:







RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
--------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...14.8 NORTE 39.7 OESTE                             
CERCA DE 1050 MI...1685 KM AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE                                                           
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H               
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 29 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H   
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARES...29.71 PULGADAS
Caracas, Venezuela

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Desconectado Gale

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Re:Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 20, 2015, 18:05:35 pm »
Muy curiosa la imagen visible de estas horas, con el LLCC completamente expuesto, pero con una maravillosa circulación y las nubes bajas dibujando un ojo claro en el centro.


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Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 21, 2015, 23:12:17 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 4:45pm

Se mantiene pobremente estructurada, poco movimiento y esa extensa circulación ciclónica al ONO la sabotea:





SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 48.8W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Caracas, Venezuela

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Re:Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 22, 2015, 18:39:49 pm »
Hora local de Caracas 12:10pm

Ida y su movimiento errático, al ESE. Desacoplada totalmente, con su extensa convección al SE del centro:





RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
--------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.5 NORTE 47.5 OESTE                             
CERCA DE 1030 MI...1655 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE                                                         
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H               
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ESTE SURESTE O 120 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H   
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARES...29.68 PULGADAS

Caracas, Venezuela

@meteovenezuela
@climavzla

Desconectado Eyestorm_Eric

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Re:Tormenta tropical IDA 10L, Atlantico tropical RDP, septiembre 2015
« Respuesta #7 en: Septiembre 24, 2015, 03:43:57 am »
Hora local de Caracas 9:15pm

Ida ni tira para adelante...ni para atrás !!!

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 46.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Caracas, Venezuela

@meteovenezuela
@climavzla

 



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