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Ya tenemos otro ciclón tropical en la RDP, al suroeste de Cabo Verde, aunque no está previsto que sea un sucesor de IRMA o JOSE, dado que no va a encontrarse las mismas condiciones propicias para intensificarse... Veremos si se convierte en LEE, ya que la 96L también compite por ese nombre...
000
WTCA44 TJSJ 150926
TCPSP4
BOLETIN
Depresion Tropical Catorce Advertencia Numero 2
Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL142017
Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
500 AM AST viernes 15 de septiembre de 2017
...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE HACIE EL OESTE SOBRE EL EXTREMO
ESTE DEL ATLANTICO...
...SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 AM UTC...0900 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...10.6 NORTE 27.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 435 MI...700 KM SSO DE ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O O 270 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------
A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro de la Depresion Tropical
Catorce estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 10.6 norte, longitud
27.3 oeste. La depresion se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15 mph
(24 km/h), y este movimiento se anticipa continue durante los
proximos dias.
Vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica que la depresion se convierta en
Tormenta Tropical mas tarde hoy o manana.
La presion minima central estimada es de 1008 mb (29.77 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------------
Ninguno.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Avila
Traduccion Cotto
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La DT14 sigue discurriendo por la RDP, sin pena ni gloria..................... Quizás termine recibiendo nombre, pero no se le augura una vida muy intensa... :P
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017
The center of the depression continues to be located on the north
side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only
expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed
and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the
opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36
hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the
eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone.
The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but
weakening should begin thereafter. The system should degenerate
into a remnant low in about 4 days.
The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow
mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the
shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this
should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest.
The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48
hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the
guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC
forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of
the ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 12.6N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
-
No le hicimos mucho caso a este ciclón tropical y, tras disiparse, ha renacido de sus cenizas...
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017
Several microwave overpasses between 2100 and 2200 UTC indicated
that Lee was becoming better organized, at least at the mid-levels.
In particular, a WindSat overpass near 21Z indicated that a
mid-level eye was already forming. Since that time, however, cloud
tops have warmed, the CDO has shrunk, and a GPM overpass around 0100
UTC showed that most of the convection is currently confined to the
southeast semicircle of the tropical storm. The UW-CIMSS ADT
supports an intensity of 35 kt, and the TAFB Dvorak analyst
indicated that the subjective classification would have been higher,
if the technique wasn't constrained by the fact that classifications
on Lee only recently restarted. Based on these data, the initial
intensity has been increased to 35 kt.
The intensity forecast for Lee is highly uncertain. The tropical
storm is very small, and small cyclones often quickly strengthen or
weaken. Furthermore, Lee is small enough that some of our models
(and many of our observing platforms) may have trouble resolving the
inner core of the storm. Given the current convective state of Lee,
significant strengthening in the short term seems unlikely.
However, the cyclone is expected to be in a fairly unstable, low
shear environment for at least the next 3 days, so it is possible
that rapid intensification could occur at some time during that
period. On the other hand, I can't rule out that the cyclone could
dissipate entirely, as depicted by the GFS, within a couple days.
For now, my forecast is closest to the HWRF for the first 72 h,
since that model tends to do well in low-shear environments and
should have sufficient resolution to model Lee's core. After that
time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.
Lee has continued to move north around 6 kt. Little change has been
made to the track forecast, and Lee is still forecast to move around
a subtropical ridge for the next 72 h. At days 4 and 5, a ridge
building between Lee and Maria to the west should cause a turn more
toward the south, as long as Lee is sufficiently deep to be steered
by that feature. The forecast continues to be close to the ECMWF,
since it is still the global model with the strongest representation
of Lee, in line with the NHC forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 31.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 32.2N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 32.5N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 32.4N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 32.1N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 31.3N 43.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 30.0N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NNNN
Philippe Papin @pppapin 39 minHace 39 minutos
Despite being a tiny storm, #Lee may already be developing an inner core. Latest #GMI 89GHz color has hints of a mid-level eye developing.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKX-S7PVAAAAEjk.jpg)
Philippe Papin @pppapin 57 minHace 57 minutos
#Lee's tiny CDO is reminiscent of another #midget #TC that holds the world record for smallest TS winds radius: #Marco (2008).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKX7CUsVoAAP1iR.jpg)
-
Muy curiosos estos casos de pequeñas tormentas tropicales, que en tiempos pasados hubieran sido invisibles completamente. Son los llamados tiny-tim storms...
Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017
Lee remains a compact tropical cyclone as indicated by a 20-kt wind
report at 1200Z from ship LAQX5, located only 70 nmi east of the
center. A 0943Z WindSAT pass had a few 40-45 uncontaminated wind
vectors in the southwestern quadrant, so the intensity has been
conservatively increased to 40 kt, which is closer to the satellite
intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT.
The initial motion is a slow drift toward the north or 360/02 kt,
based primarily on microwave satellite fixes. The global and
regional models are in general agreement that Lee will move slowly
at 5 kt or less for the next 5 days, and either make a wide or a
tight anticyclonic turn back toward the west after 72 h due to a
building high pressure ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a
stationary upper-level low located a few hundred nmi to the south.
The GFS makes the widest turn, whereas the ECMWF makes the tightest
turn; the remainder of the model guidance lies somewhere between
those two extremes. Until the model guidance becomes more
convergent, the official NHC forecast track will remain basically
down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the blend of the
TCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models.
Earlier WindSAT and SSMI/S microwave data showed that Lee possessed
an 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and
mid-levels, indicating that the cyclone has a well-defined
inner-core wind field, albeit quite small. The deep-layer vertical
wind shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease
to 5-10 kt during the next 48 hours or so while Lee remains over
SSTs of about 27.5 deg C. In addition, upper-level temperatures are
currently running, and are expected to remain, about 3 deg C colder
than normal, which should ensure sufficient instability for the
generation of inner-core thunderstorm activity through the entire
forecast period. Based on the combination of these favorable dynamic
and thermodynamic conditions, Lee is forecast to steadily develop
into a hurricane by 48-72 hours, with the only inhibiting factor
being occasional intrusions of very dry mid-level air. However, the
strong instability/CAPE that will be available should allow for deep
convection to more or less persist near the center until modest
westerly shear begins to affect the cyclone by 72-120 hours, during
which time a slow weakening trend is expected. The official
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is
close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 31.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 32.2N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 32.3N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 31.3N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 30.5N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 29.9N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 30.5N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
Simulación de imágenes IR+RGB (temperatura de los topes nubosos) de la tormenta tropical LEE, según el modelo americano HWRF. Llegaría a ser huracán...
https://www.facebook.com/cazatormentas.net/videos/1794357100592478/
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¿Qué son los ciclones tiny-tim o tiny-tim storms? Ciclones tropicales MUY compactos:
http://www.cazatormentas.com/los-tiny-tims-y-la-mejora-en-la-deteccion-de-ciclones-tropicales-marginales/
(http://www.cazatormentas.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/tinytims.jpg)
-
Anoche parecía que LEE se deshacía.......... y coge y se convierte en otro huracán ;D ;D ;D ¡Flipante!
Por otro lado, demuestra que el modelo americano HWRF trabaja muy bien con los ciclones tropicales...
Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in
Lee's central dense overcast. This special advisory is thus being
issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds. The intensity
forecast has been significantly increased based on the current
intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat
modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0630Z 31.9N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
-
Aquí podemos observar la tremenda evolución. Además, según el modelo europeo, se va a intensificar más. Ya veremos. Y otra cosa entretenida que apunta es a que sus restos podrían llegar hasta la Península en forma de humedad para producir lluvias en el noroeste...
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZzHU9hqv-ko/WcdwhT-Yu-I/AAAAAAAAGPo/554wG6f-4xMfGVcJpJfmaixwKoSfEXT6wCL0BGAs/w530-d-h353-rw/rbtop_lalo-animated%2B%252810%2529.gif)
-
LEE tiene un ojo minúsculo... otro caso de pinhole eye.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKeuhHwWAAE9rlg.jpg)
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La presencia satelital de LEE es sencillamente impresionante... Imagen VIS de alta resolución proporcionada por el GOES-16.
Parece que hay un dry-slot en su sector oriental que ya veremos cómo afecta al ciclón en las próximas horas. Estos ciclones tan pequeños suelen sufrir fuertes fluctuaciones de intensidad. Aún así, podría ser otro "major" en las próximas horas...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKe-79PW4AAKG3i.jpg)
-
Pocas novedades durante la tarde...
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
remains 80 kt.
The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS
dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment
should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.
The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The
hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve
and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model
consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track
forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.
Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
multi-model scheme.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Landsea
-
LEE se mantiene cuasi igual que ayer a última hora... deambulando por el Atlántico Central, justo por debajo del umbral de la categoría 2 de huracán.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-hMAYTyjb-6Q/WcikPGUePJI/AAAAAAAAGQc/cvIoJ2M50Ag_CUj9CBw_cyUISIQzomSDQCL0BGAs/w530-d-h353-rw/wv_lalo-animated.gif)
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Amanece sobre el tenaz LEE, sin muchos cambios en las últimas horas. Quizás ha agrandado un poco su ojo, pero nada más. Sigue moviéndose en la misma zona y casi sobre sus propios pasos de ayer...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKkEdOLW4AAhU61.jpg)
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LEE está todavía lejos del chorro polar, y también lejos de la influencia del subtropical, por lo que tiene una ventana abierta a la intensificación en los próximos 2 días o así. El único impedimento será el afloramiento de aguas frescas al moverse por zonas por las que ya ha estado... Lo que se llama upwelling en inglés.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKkJnNbXoAAmR1s.jpg)
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El #HuracanLee otro día mas sobre el #Atlántico con vientos de 150 Km/h
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKkMFzYW4AIPaZ4.jpg)
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Los dos huracanes en el #Atlántico a la vista del #GOES16 en #Cat1
#HuracanLee
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKlq8p4XUAIbtfg.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKlq_rfXUAESnBd.jpg)
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Durante la tarde LEE ha perdido el ojo. Y el caso es que el modelo HWRF preveía esto en su salida de las 00 UTC de hoy... y lo que también prevé es que va a volver a recuperarlo en las próximas horas, antes de empezar a interaccionar con MARIA en su cambio hacia los westerlies... 8)
-
Durante la tarde LEE ha perdido el ojo. Y el caso es que el modelo HWRF preveía esto en su salida de las 00 UTC de hoy... y lo que también prevé es que va a volver a recuperarlo en las próximas horas, antes de empezar a interaccionar con MARIA en su cambio hacia los westerlies... 8)
El modelo la vuelve a clavar... LEE recuperó intensidad y su ojo, que ahora es bastante más grande. Definitivamente, me encanta HWRF para trabajar con ciclones tropicales 8)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-FaJ_kUHrPY4/WcocipA3zjI/AAAAAAAAGR0/GSrlH5FgFPsQ_2J5Zp8xNoQLWi4grp08ACL0BGAs/w530-d-h353-rw/wv_lalo-animated%2B%25281%2529.gif)
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017
Lee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized this
evening. The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10
degrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to
-63 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is increased modestly to
85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak
T-numbers. It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-number
yields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type.
The previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluent
flow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for the
next 48 hours or so. During this initial period, Lee could get a
little stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and the
Decay-SHIPS. Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due to
the outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone
moves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes an
extratropical cyclone in 4 days. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of the
IVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-level
steering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-tropospheric
ridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours. Afterward,
a combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving
out of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridge
building east of Lee should steer the hurricane gradually
northwestward and northward. On day 3 and beyond, Lee is forecast
to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layer
high latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned
shortwave trough. Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolution
analysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropical
cyclone no later than day 4. The NHC forecast track is a little
south of the previous one through 48 hours, but similar
thereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 30.0N 52.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 29.9N 53.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 30.2N 55.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 30.9N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 32.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 36.9N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 44.5N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 50.9N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Roberts
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKqlZwsXUAE_xwW.jpg)
LEE sigue intensificándose, como un huracán muy pequeño... 90 KT que le aúpa a la categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson.
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017
Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
-
LEE está justo por debajo del umbral de gran huracán de categoría 3... Además, y tal y como preveía el modelo HWRF han ocurrido cambios en el ciclón que le han llevado a que su ojo doble (al menos) su tamaño. Parece que ha habido un Ciclo de Reemplazamiento del Ojo.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rH4cfpfjAyo/WcucMExd81I/AAAAAAAAGSw/6_Be6A8qW1cgjvpKUPMJReU-9pw_C95jQCL0BGAs/w530-d-h353-rw/wv_lalo-animated%2B%25282%2529.gif)
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017
Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has been
undergoing some cloud structural changes during the past several
hours. The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles in
diameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS Objective
Dvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147
UTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surrounding
the partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud pattern
alterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacement
cycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term.
The initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjective
T-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity. The
official intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becoming
a major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences by
early Wednesday. The global models and the FSU Cyclone Phase
Evolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropical
characteristics through day 3. Afterward, the guidance shows the
cyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinic
system.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8
kt. Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, and
generally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by the
southwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over the
east-central Atlantic. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within the
strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in
72 hours. The model guidance suite continues to trend toward the
west through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast follows
suit. Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster than
the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected
Consensus technique model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 30.2N 56.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 30.8N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 32.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 37.8N 53.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 46.3N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
-
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017
After an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicate
that a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-top
temperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone. While
subjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt,
the latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSU
estimate from CIMSS is 104 kt. A blend of these data gives an
initial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane of
the 2017 Atlantic season. A gradual decrease in water temperatures
should start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a faster
weakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shear
environment. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and
the latest forecast is very close to the previous one.
Lee has turned northwestward, or 315/6. The hurricane should turn
to the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it moves
around the subtropical ridge. Lee is expected to move quite quickly
to the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates in
mid-latitude flow. No significant changes were made to the previous
track, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIP
corrected-consensus model. Around day 3, the cyclone should be
close to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separate
from that feature. By day 4, all of the guidance have the system
decaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below.
An ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown in
size, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified to
reflect that change.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 30.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 31.4N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 33.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 35.5N 55.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 46.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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NHC Atlantic OpsCuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic 3 hHace 3 horas
#Lee becomes the 5th major #hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season but is no threat to land. Full advisory: http://hurricanes.gov
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKvTnkOXUAEcuR8.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKvToYxXkAEtUkF.jpg)
Philip KlotzbachCuenta verificada
@philklotzbach
#Lee is now a major hurricane with max winds of 115 mph - the 7th Atlantic hurricane season on record with 5 Cat. 3+ hurricanes by Sep 27.
Tyler Stanfield @StanfieldTyler 6 hHace 6 horas
Epic morning visible imagery from #GOES16 of near-Major Hurricane #Lee. Eyewall replacement has given way to a large 30 mile wide eye!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKufqYLUQAEOfO8.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKufqYNU8AA7WIg.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKufqYLVoAIf98d.jpg)
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Imagen del Modis del #Terra del #HuracanLee en #Cat3 y vientos de 185 Km/h
Ampliación sobre su ojo
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKwAoEzXUAE8tCF.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKwApWJXoAcBXXh.jpg)
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Parece LEE está comenzando a sentir los efectos de la cizalladura y el aire seco... Poco a poco se va viendo afectado por los westerlies...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKz9JxjXUAATsgN.jpg)
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(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-FTP-G6Mz6fs/Wc3pPBiGI-I/AAAAAAAAGTo/1HjfkAv43d482SKKl97jq4wSI3Lrzr8FACL0BGAs/w530-d-h353-rw/wv_lalo-animated%2B%25283%2529.gif)
LEE está empezando a sucumbir a condiciones rápidamente más hostiles al ir quedando embebido en los westerlies... Aguas más frescas, aire seco y cizalladura creciente. Durará poco como ciclón tropical aunque todavía es huracán...
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017
Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the
northern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center
has become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the
cloud canopy. A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of
70 kt. Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and
decreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the
next 36 hours. Afterward, the global models indicate that the
system will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over the
northern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM
models.
The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.
The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward
the northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow
until dissipation occurs in 48 hours. The NHC forecast follows the
TVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically
an update of the previous track forecast.
Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC
ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 36.3N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 39.1N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 43.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 47.6N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Los restos de LEE van a verse incorporados en los westerlies muy pronto, y llegarán a Irlanda provocando un temporal de vientos y lluvia...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DK4YiQrWkAALIZt.jpg)
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Previsión para el #Atlántico en las próximas 72 horas en modelo #GFS de los remanentes del #Lee y #Maria
https://www.facebook.com/JUANCARLOSRAMOSGARCIA/videos/1525050560884138/
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LEE ha sido declarado Post-tropical... y a penas queda nada de él. Solo una pequeña bolsa de humedad y un máximo de vientos. Llegarán sus restos difuminados a Irlanda al final del día...