Filipinas deberá monitorearlo con atención................... Los modelos lo llevan para allá. Adjunto análisis del Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W CONSOLIDATED FURTHER AS IT TRACKED AT
A FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260918Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  A 260000Z PGUM UPPER-AIR SOUNDING REPORTING EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 400 MB SUPPORTS CURRENT AND PROJECTED
STORM MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
    B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED
IN PARA 2.A. THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, UP
TO 100 KNOTS, AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT
OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE STORM BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN.
WBAR REMAINS RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR STARTS TO THE LEFT UP TO
TAU 72 BEFORE IT VEERS TOWARDS THE MAIN PACK.//
NNNN

Resumiendo, que se está moviendo hacia el WNW, manteniendo el rumbo, y se espera que alcance la categoría de tifón, e incluso con un pico de intensidad superior a los 100 KT... Así que veremos si no asistimos al nacimiento de un nuevo supertifón...

MIRINAE se encuentra a estas horas reforzándose en el mar de Filipinas sobre unas pequeñas islas que hay a unos 2630 km de Filipinas, que reciben los nombres de Islas Marianas La de geografía que se aprende gracias a estos monstruos... El bicho está sobre la isla de Saipán, que tiene nada menos que 62400 habitantes Al ser estadounidenses, tienen sus radares meteo :D1 :D1

Nuevo boletín de discusión del Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF SAIPAN. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER ROTA, MARIANA
ISLANDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM ROTA SUPPORT THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
OF 35 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THE WINDS AT GUAM AND
SAIPAN INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS
STILL FAIRLY SMALL. WINDS AT ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE GUAM, SHOW
WINDS AT 40 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ARE
APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB.
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
AS TS 23W HAS TRACKED OVER ROTA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST REQUIRED
FOR TS 23W TO BE MAINTAINED AS THE LLCC ORGANIZES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
    B. TS 23W WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT AROUND TAU 48 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THE STR, TO THE WEST OF TS 23W, WILL BE LIFTING OUT ALLOWING FOR THE
STR TO RE-DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF TS 23W AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE WESTWARD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAST
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
    C. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE
SAME PARAMETERS AS DISCUSSED IN PARA 3.B. LANDFALL WITH LUZON IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN TS 23W AS
IT CROSSES OVER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, WBAR. WBAR KEEPS
THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, INTO THE STR,
WHICH BASED ON MODEL FIELDS IS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO.//
NNNN

MIRINAE ha seguido intensificándose, pero lleva una progresión lenta, al menos de momento, y se sigue moviendo con rumbo WNW. Sigue pronosticando ese movimiento, y su llegada a la isla de Luzón, de las Filipinas, con la capital Manila, en un periodo de 120 horas.

MIRINAE sigue mostrando síntomas de intensificación. La última imagen en modo multisensor que se puede encontrar en la web del NRL, muestra que la nubosidad sigue organizándose y ya es posible distinguir una característica en forma de ojo en la imagen de microondas (la que muestra coloraciones rojas sobre la imagen infrarroja). Esto indica que el ciclón está próximo a alcanzar la categoría de tifón, y en base a esto, le daría una intensidad de 55 KT.

El JTWC ha actualizado el boletín de discusión:

WDPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MIRINAE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS STEADILY
INTENSIFIED TO 45 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD
CURRENTLY SUPPORT A WIDE RANGE OF INTENSITIES- FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, (SUBJECTIVE) ANALYSIS OF A 271035Z TMI 85H MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SYSTEMS 45
KNOTS OR GREATER. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED FROM 115 KNOTS TO 100
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 2 FORECASTS IN ORDER TO BETTER REFLECT THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
    B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND PULLS OUT OF THE
TROPICS. AFTER WHICH, THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. ALL THE WHILE THE
STORM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. WBAR, CONSISTENTLY A NORTHERN
OUTLIER, HAS EVEN COME INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACKING.
    C. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABOUT FOUR DEGREES TO THE EAST
OF LUZON IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED JUST BEFORE TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES LUZON, BUT WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. //
NNNN

Se indican muchas cosas importantes. Sitúan su intensidad en ese momento en 45 KT, o mayor, ojo, haciéndose eco del fenómeno que destacaba mensajes atrás: la aparición de un ojo en desarrollo en las imágenes de microondas. Su rumbo ha seguido siendo oeste-noroeste en las últimas 12 horas. Además, su pico de intensidad se ha elevado hasta 115 KT de vientos sostenidos, lo que equivale a la categoría 4 en la escala de Saffir Simpon (de 114 a 135 KT, 178 a 209 km/h), que podría alcanzar en 72 horas. Se espera su llegada a la isla de Luzón, en Filipinas, en 96 horas, aunque mucho más debilitado. Jeff Masters, en su blog, habla de tifón de categoría 1 para entonces... Muy dañino de todos modos, cuando se trataría de 4º tifón en hacer impacto directo, ya que LUPIT se desvió antes de atravesar perpendicularmente la cadena de islas.

La Agencia Japonesa de Meteorología asigna a MIRINAE 50 KT de vientos sostenidos, en su última actualización, a las 19:40 horas locales en la Península, con una presión mínima estimada de 985 hPa. Está previsto que para mañana, a las 12 UTC, ya sea tifón, con una intensidad de 65 KT, pero yo creo que este estatus lo va a alcanzar mucho antes... Veremos cómo está mañana por la mañana en horario peninsular.

A puntito de caramelo lo veo yo ya...