100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 70.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ELEVATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BIASED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WEAKENED SOME. VWS IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE
CYCLONE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (OR 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, BUT
AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE, BASED ON ALREADY-ELEVATED VWS.
EXCESSIVE VWS (JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL) WILL INITIATE WEAKENING AFTER
TAU 36. THE TRACK FORECAST MIRRORS AN OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE THAT IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PROGING A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK (ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE),
WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//