Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Agosto 23, 2016, 04:32:03 am
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Se forma el séptimo ciclón de la temporada en el Atlántico al SO de Cabo Verde. Modelos sugieren que podría alcanzar la categoría de Gran Huracán pero sobre aguas oceánicas, no se espera interacción con tierra firme:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/7l_zps5bdkec4r.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/7l_zps5bdkec4r.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rb-animated_zpsuqcszvqw.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rb-animated_zpsuqcszvqw.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000023_zpszfwdiosx.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000023_zpszfwdiosx.jpg.html)
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Ya es GASTON :D
000
WTNT42 KNHC 230231
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016
The convective organization of the tropical cyclone has continued
to increase this evening. A couple of well-defined curved bands of
convection now wrap more than halfway around the center and some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the center. As a
result, subjective Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T2.5 and
support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm. Gaston
becomes the seventh tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane
season.
Gaston is forecast to move over warm water and remain in a low wind
shear environment during the next couple of days. These favorable
conditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gaston is
forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, which agrees with
the majority of the intensity guidance. In about 3 days, the
global models suggest that Gaston will be nearing an upper-level
low over the central Atlantic that could cause an increase in
southwesterly shear over the system. This should halt
intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for little change in
strength after 72 hours.
The tropical storm is being steered west-northwestward to the south
of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. After that time, a weakness in the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic should cause Gaston to turn
northwestward. The track guidance remains in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 12.6N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.0N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 38.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Hora local de Caracas 1:50pm
Sigue intensificándose:
11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 23
Location: 13.8°N 34.6°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/vis-animated_zpsgiro9jtj.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/vis-animated_zpsgiro9jtj.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 10pm
Compacto y sólido, pronto será un huracán, a mas tardar en 12h:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/x_zpsqjaf3gym.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/x_zpsqjaf3gym.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 11:30am
Gaston a punto de ser Huracán:
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...16.1 NORTE 39.4 OESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 1020 MI...1645 KM AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000023_zps1zn2d7th.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000023_zps1zn2d7th.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/vis-animated_zpsy6kxxpqf.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/vis-animated_zpsy6kxxpqf.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 11am
Gaston alcanzó la CAT1 como huracán pero la cizalladura por el SO la devuelve nuevamente a tormenta tropical, de momento:
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...20.4 NORTE 44.4 OESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 1160 MI...1865 KM AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 315 GRADOS A 17 MPH...28 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MB...29.30 PULGADAS
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000048_zpsid5kqeoo.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000048_zpsid5kqeoo.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/vis-animated_zpsu5h80s9b.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/vis-animated_zpsu5h80s9b.gif.html)
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Tras su breve paso por la categoría de huracán, hoy lucha frente a la cizalladura producida por una cercana DANA...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqyGUNSXgAABlK_.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 1:40pm
Efectivamente Gaston está siendo cizallada por una baja no tropical en altura ubicada lejos al SO. La despluma:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000072_zpsxncqqy5j.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000072_zpsxncqqy5j.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/gaston_zpsdnyf0c4s.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/gaston_zpsdnyf0c4s.gif.html)
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La verdad es que la cizalladura de la baja tiene hechos unos zorros el 2º/3º cuadrante, aún así así parece que los topes nubosos se van regenerando entorno a la circulación en niveles bajos, como se ve en la pasada del ASCAT.
07L GASTON. 55kts-997mb 248N-479W
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/WMBds99.png)
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/20160826.1745.goes13.x.vis2km.07LGASTON.55kts-997mb-248N-479W.100pc.jpg)
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Edito:
LLC expuesto y los desarrollos lejos del mismo; a ver como se desarrolla a tenor de lo que los modelos opinan.
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/20160826.1815.goes13.x.vis1km_high.07LGASTON.55kts-997mb-248N-479W.100pc.jpg)
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Está hecho unos zorros esta tarde :o :o :o Porque la circulación es vigorosa, si no... cualquiera diría que es una tempestad tropical moribunda... :-X
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Pues no parece que le haya sentado mal la noche ciertamente.
Su LLC sigue bien estructurado por las pasada del ASCAT sacadita del horno y parece que mejora la convección rodeando el centro con un buen CDO.
El flujo de salida mejora en los cuadrantes 1/4, seguramente por las altas presiones que se van reforzando.
La baja al SW sigue inyectando aire seco y cizalladura a 2/3 cuadrante.
07LGASTON 55kts-995mb 276N-515W
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/parungo2014/20160827.0945.goes13.x.vis2km.07LGASTON.55kts-995mb-276N-515W.100pc.jpg)
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/parungo2014/WMBds99.png)
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/parungo2014/wv-l.jpg)
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Loop visible cortesía de la NAVY:
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/parungo2014/SEL_33_20160827.0945.goes13.x.vis1km.07LGASTON.55kts-995mb-276N-515W.100pc.gif)
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Muy interesante de seguir este ciclón... ya solo depende de la SST de la zona del océano sobre la que se mueve, ya que ha perdido el cordón umbilical con la ZCIT y está rodeado de aire seco...
El modelo europeo sigue apostando por llevarlo al norte de Azores y morir frente a la Península Ibérica, en una ruta que sería parecida a la de Joaquín del año pasado: http://www.cazatormentas.net/ultima-hora-sobre-la-aproximacion-del-huracan-joaquin-a-europa/
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cq3ma4qW8AEfPvv.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas10:30pm
Se ha intensificado considerablemente durante las últimas horas, alcanzando la CAT1 de huracán según el ATCF, muy asimétrico y vientos de 139 km/h:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/z_zpsg9ydjhxp.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/z_zpsg9ydjhxp.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/x_zpsdsazqpk4.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/x_zpsdsazqpk4.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rbtop-animated_zps3bnizflp.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rbtop-animated_zps3bnizflp.gif.html)
Hace unas tres horas e relación a la hora de publicación de éste reporte mostro un diminuto ojo:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000101_zps0bnmp2jz.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000101_zps0bnmp2jz.jpg.html)
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GASTON sigue intensificándose, a juzgar por un anillo convectivo más grueso y con los topes más fríos...
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0n15D3J_Fn8/V8LD7Ky9gVI/AAAAAAAAFAw/bRf-wlQfroolZiy8tUqh8utZj9w9FR76ACL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/rrrrrrrrrrr.gif)
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Los modelos a largo plazo no se ponen de acuerdo... Las salidas cambian mucho de unas a otras. Ahora mismo GFS lleva a GASTON a alcanzar las islas occidentales de Azores todavía como tempestad tropical.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4599/gfs_mslp_wind_07L_25_pdo5.png)
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gaston ya es categoria 2
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... y en la última actualización del CNH lo desvían directo a las Azores, acercándose manteniendo categoría de huracán...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6247/144703W5_NL_sm_vde5.gif)
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Pasada del satélite AQUA (sensor MODIS) sobre GASTON, hace un rato...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cq99voLWcAAvGv8.jpg)
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gaston ya es categoria 3 :P
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Hora local de Caracas 6:30pm
Gastón se convierte en el primer Gran Huracán de la temporada. En las últimas horas prácticamente estacionario. Se espera desplazamiento hacia Las Azores:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC
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LOCALIZACION...30.8 NORTE 55.1 OESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 580 MI...935 KM AL ESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 320 GRADOS A 5 MPH...7 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MB...28.41 PULGADAS
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Gaston_zps1enn3bws.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Gaston_zps1enn3bws.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000118_zpsr9w7dqvy.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000118_zpsr9w7dqvy.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:30pm
Sigue fortaleciéndose: 957mb y vientos sostenidos de 195 km/h o 105kt
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000123_zpsbvb4gith.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000123_zpsbvb4gith.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000125_zpsx2q4nto0.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000125_zpsx2q4nto0.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000124_zpsmaxd6uuv.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000124_zpsmaxd6uuv.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rbtop-animated_zpsbpq11y8x.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpsbpq11y8x.gif.html)
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 290250
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016
Gaston remains a well organized hurricane. Satellite images indicate
that the eye remains quite distinct with a symmetric ring of deep
convection around it. The upper-level outflow is well established
both to the west and the east of the system. The latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are 5.5/102 kt, and automated
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt.
Based on these data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 105
kt.
Gaston has not moved very little during the last several hours. A
continued slow and likely erratic northward motion is forecast
overnight and Monday while Gaston remains in weak steering currents
caused by a blocking mid-level ridge to its northwest. A trough
that is currently over eastern Canada is expected to dampen by the
time it nears Gaston, but it should be strong enough to erode the
ridge and allow the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies. This pattern change should result in Gaston's turning
east-northeastward in about 24 hours, with the cyclone continuing in
that direction through the remainder of the forecast period. The
model guidance remains tightly packed, and little change was made to
the previous NHC track prediction.
The atmospheric conditions suggest that Gaston could maintain its
strength for the next day or so, however, given the expected slow
motion of the cyclone there is some chance that cold water upwelling
would counteract that. Beyond that time, the hurricane is
likely to encounter an environment of increasing shear, drier air,
and cooler water. Given these expected conditions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows a gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday. This
prediction is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 30.6N 55.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 30.9N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 31.4N 54.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 32.1N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 33.0N 51.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 37.4N 38.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 37.7N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Cazatormentas | ¿Es verdad que el huracán #Gaston se aproxima a España? http://lsh.re/16DK3
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Hora local de Caracas 1pm
Se debilita un poco. El ojo tapado por cirros y la MIMIC sugiere Reemplazo de la Pared del Ojo probablemente. Se mantiene como CAT3:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000147_zps0ieozcwq.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000147_zps0ieozcwq.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000146_zpsffdgxels.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000146_zpsffdgxels.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:10pm
CAT2
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...31.2 NORTE 55.2 OESTE
ALREDEDOR DE 570 MI...915 KM AL ESTE DE BERMUDA
ALREDEDOR DE 1665 MI...2675 KM AL OESTE DE AZORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NORESTE O 30 GRADOS A 3 MPH...6 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...968 MB...28.59 PULGADAS
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zpsme9rfkhw.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zpsme9rfkhw.gif.html)
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El último boletín del CNH habla de un debilitamiento adicional, aunque se le ve muy saludable de nuevo en la animación de imágenes del satélite en las que también se aprecia cómo ya su movimiento hacia el este es claro. Quizás más marcado de lo que prevén los pronósticos...
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lqfKKwpE3Og/V8WKz0T0jkI/AAAAAAAAFCA/g1OYcmakYIgJg9a76lZRb9O1FDeF5Up3gCL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/gastton.gif)
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Movimiento de GASTON respecto de los chorros de viento a 300 hPa, e influencia del chorro polar en las últimas horas ;)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/--sYheyRob2M/V8W76SGrQaI/AAAAAAAAFCw/y5017IKBvNUGC93YvepP8XsJN_wZVnEZQCJoC/w426-h341/gaston.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 1:50pm
Gaston se mantiene en aguas abiertas del Atlántico. Es un huracán CAT2 con un enorme ojo:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zpsiveh8faq.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zpsiveh8faq.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000167_zps6bz7go86.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000167_zps6bz7go86.jpg.html)
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Extremadamente bello, sin que tenga ocasión de provocar daños en ningún lugar habitado.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrIMf3gWEAAm_fF.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 5pm
Mordiendo la CAT3 nuevamente. Para un gran ojo, una gran pared del ojo:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000170_zpspjugbdin.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000170_zpspjugbdin.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000171_zpskfjaffts.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000171_zpskfjaffts.jpg.html)
Es un magnífico ciclón ubicado entre Bermuda y Las Azores:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/x_zpsiu8lwmtx.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/x_zpsiu8lwmtx.jpg.html)
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Tan cerca, tan lejos...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrGyRVPXgAAOfTN.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:35pm
Nuevamente alcanza la CAT3: Pmin=956mb y vientos de 195 km/h:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rbtop-animated_zpsu9uigcbb.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpsu9uigcbb.gif.html)
Adicionalmente adoptando características de ciclón anular
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Así es, Eric. Esperaba que hubiera alguna referencia a esa anularidad en el último boletín del CNH, pero no comentan nada.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 310253
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016
Gaston's satellite presentation has continued to improve, with a
large clear eye and cloud tops colder than -60C completely
surrounding the center. Dvorak intensity estimates have risen to
T5.5 from TAFB and SAB and are a little higher from the objective
ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 105 kt, making
Gaston a major hurricane again.
Gaston is expected to remain over waters warmer than 26C for at
least the next 36 hours. In addition, vertical shear is not
expected to increase any further than what is already affecting the
system. Therefore, Gaston should be able to at least maintain its
intensity in the short term, but weakening is likely to commence by
24 hours. Due to cooler waters, a rather fast weakening trend
is expected after 36 hours, with Gaston likely to weaken to a
tropical storm between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is now
expected to become post-tropical by day 4 since it will be
difficult for it to maintain organized, deep convection over cold
water, and it should become absorbed by another extratropical
cyclone by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the
ICON intensity consensus for the entire forecast period.
The initial motion is 070/9 kt. Gaston is becoming embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies, which should cause it to accelerate
toward the east-northeast during the next couple of days. Some
reduction in speed is then forecast to start by day 3 once Gaston
begins to interact with the separate extratropical cyclone. The
track guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes
were needed from the previous NHC track forecast. The updated NHC
forecast continues to show a threat to the Azores in about 3 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 32.9N 50.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 35.4N 46.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 37.9N 36.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 38.7N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 40.5N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrLlNWAWYAYLHaR.jpg)
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CNH actualiza su pronóstico de intensidades en su último boletín, y a diferencia de los anteriores, rebaja su intensidad antes de su llegada a Azores. Así, GASTON llegará como tormenta/tempestad tropical, y no como huracán, que es lo que se barajaba con anterioridad.
Eso sí, podría barrer el archipiélago, tal como se dice en la nota de AEMET, para después convertirse en post-tropical y disiparse...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrM1eulWIAACAL9.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 10:10pm
Gaston es un huracán CAT2:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 46.5W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpsganwa59k.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpsganwa59k.gif.html)
Alerta de tormenta tropical para Las Azores:
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central
Azores
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El huracán ya comienza a sentir los efectos de encontrarse cada vez más sometido a las condiciones atmosféricas propias de las latitudes medias, con aguas todavía suficientemente cálidas, pero con cada vez más cizalladura y aire seco.
Así, su desgaste es más que evidente, e incluso comienza a dar síntomas de estar iniciando transición extratropical, al abrirse la pared del ojo y comenzar a aparecer una zona con tormentas que tiene algunos tintes frontales en el cuadrante sur del mismo.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9470/rr_wfg5.gif)
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Previsión de trayectorias y presión mínima, según varios modelos. Puede que solo roce las Azores, mientras se degrada rápidamente.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQSw0CVMAEcnE_.jpg)
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Se activan en Azores avisos por tormenta/tempestad tropical debido al acercamiento de GASTON:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQilUUXYAIPcHo.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrQil0cWcAAzNEk.jpg)
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Gaston sigue debilitándose, y aunque aguanta como huracán, sus vientos han bajado a 70 KT... pronto regresará a la categoría de tempestad/tormenta tropical...
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Hora local de Caracas 9:45pm
Progresivo debilitamiento anticipado:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 37.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rbtop-animated_zpsh8v28frv.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpsh8v28frv.gif.html)
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GASTON está realizando su llegada a las Azores, en donde hay activos avisos de nivel naranja por mal estado del mar, lluvias intensas y vientos.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrVjSq-VUAEnDDq.jpg)
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GASTON ya ha sido degradado a tempestad / tormenta tropical...
En el último boletín se anticipa rápido debilitamiento por la fuerte cizalladura reinante, que ha desacoplado los centros del ciclón en la vertical atmosférica, y las aguas cada vez más frías. En 48 horas se habrá disipado por completo.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020846
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016
Conventional satellite imagery and two earlier microwave images
show the center of circulation decoupled well to the west of the
remaining deep convection. The initial intensity is decreased to
55 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates. Continued weakening is
expected as the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures and remains in a strong vertical shear environment.
Gaston is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours,
with dissipation in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is close to the IVCN intensity
consensus model.
Because Gaston's low-level circulation has decoupled from the
mid-level flow due to the persistent strong shear, the cyclone's
forward speed has decreased while moving eastward, or 080/13 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple
of days. At the 36-hour period, Gaston should turn northeastward in
response to a frontal system approaching from the northwest and
open up into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days. The NHC
track foreast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered model
guidance and is similar to the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 38.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 38.9N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 39.7N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 41.3N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts/Stewart
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UNmUV5i1k50/V8lAan2n4eI/AAAAAAAAFEE/dDep7-hwsQUVyW8oZJXw7koGhUygrvknwCL0B/w530-d-h353-rw/gasston.gif)
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Imagen IR + campo isobárico de superficie, análisis del IFS/ECWMF a las 06 UTC de hoy:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrV5pufUIAI2mHG.jpg)
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Tras el pequeño resurgimiento de GASTON durante las primeras horas de la tarde, la cizalladura ha terminado de decapitarlo, y un debilitamiento muy significativo ha tenido lugar... No obstante, ha dejado estampas bestiales:
Cazatormentas.net @ecazatormentas 29 minHace 29 minutos
#Gaston desde el sat. AQUA (sensor MODIS) al mediodía, llegando a #Azores con #FMA, vía @AGMTfe
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrYBEEbWEAAXh2X.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrYBEEcWEAAy6-h.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 11:15pm
Lo que queda de Gastón sobre Las Azores:
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 2
Location: 40.1°N 28.7°W
Moving: ENE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zpshfojiohb.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zpshfojiohb.gif.html)