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Autor Tema: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...  (Leído 1054 veces)

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Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« en: Octubre 22, 2005, 23:20:46 pm »
Pues ya la tenemos en marcha, según el National Hurricane Center...

Tropical Storm ALPHA Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 222053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

A 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE
.
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM
C6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE
TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005
HURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN
RECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND
THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING
ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. 

ALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER
WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 17.0N  68.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.3N  70.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.8N  71.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N  71.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.5N  70.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 38.0N  61.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z...ABSORBED
 

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Re: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« Respuesta #1 en: Octubre 23, 2005, 09:25:00 am »
No esta claro que pueda llegar a huracan, pero ahi esta ya el alfabeto griego comenzado :-X
Alhaurin el Grande (Málaga) 300 msnm.
Dani en TWITTER

Hastalacima

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Re: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« Respuesta #2 en: Octubre 23, 2005, 09:45:45 am »
Caramba que año llevamos :o :o :o ??? ??? (CUANDO SE TERMINA LA TEMPORADA OFICIAL DE CICLONES¿ :'( :'(

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Re: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« Respuesta #3 en: Octubre 23, 2005, 10:16:39 am »
Termina a final de noviembre.
Alhaurin el Grande (Málaga) 300 msnm.
Dani en TWITTER

Hastalacima

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Re: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« Respuesta #4 en: Octubre 23, 2005, 17:35:19 pm »
"Alfa" ha sido degradado a Depresión Tropical... Parece que va a tener una vida efímera...

Discusión en el National Hurricane Center del NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/231436.shtml

000
WTNT45 KNHC 231436
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH BANDING
FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY HAS
BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE
WITHIN 75 N MI FROM THE POSITION GIVEN IN THE ADVISORY AND IS BASED
ON A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM HAITI. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
HISTORICALLY...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO
RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.
BECAUSE THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW
SHEAR...WE ARE SHOWING A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE WE DO NOT EXACTLY THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT ALPHA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED AND ALPHA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF WILMA
IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 19.2N  72.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  73.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N  74.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  73.5W    30 KT...ABSORBED BY WILMA
 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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Re: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« Respuesta #5 en: Octubre 24, 2005, 18:05:52 pm »


Ocurrirá esto?? Se lo pregunto a los foreros científicos.

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Re: Tormenta Tropical ALFA... ya es una realidad...
« Respuesta #6 en: Octubre 24, 2005, 19:54:28 pm »


Ocurrirá esto?? Se lo pregunto a los foreros científicos.

De que se forme un potente ciclón extratropical sí que hay grandes probabilidades, pero una "tormenta perfecta" como la de 1991 tengo mis dudas porque en aquél caso los ingredientes fueron distintos. Veremos a ver cómo evoluciona y, sobre todo, a ver si se acerca a la Península bordeando el Anticiclón de las Azores...

 



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