000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080246
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON.

ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090250
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN AND A RAGGED
EYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEPER CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...A 37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0020 UTC INDICATES A
CLOSED RING AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT
SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY TO 70 KT.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL STEER ADRIAN
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN
ANOTHER LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS...LED BY THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL/GFDN MODELS ARE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEY ARE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNLIKELY SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING ITS ENTIRE LIFE
CYCLE...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF REASON TO THINK THIS WILL STOP
ANYTIME SOON. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD STAY
ABOVE 29C FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
ANOTHER 24H PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...
BOTH OF WHICH SHOW ADRIAN AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE
HURRICANE WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER VERY COOL WATERS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.

AS A RESULT OF THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 13.8N 102.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 14.4N 103.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 15.1N 104.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 17.5N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090844
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C
PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  A JUST-RECEIVED TRMM
OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE
CDO...AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77
KT AT 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 80 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS
EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR ADRIAN WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WESTERN MEXICO.  THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER
THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THE GFS...GFDL...
AND HWRF RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ADRIAN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE
TROUGH CAN TURN IT NORTHWARD.  SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS
MORE ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  ASSUMING
THAT THE DRY AIR DOES NOT REACH THE INNER CORE...ADRIAN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 TO 36 HR...WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER
THAT.  IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ENTER A LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 72 HR....WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 103.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.7N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 15.2N 106.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.2N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN