Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Mayo 23, 2014, 04:53:00 am
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Será AMANDA y con potencial para convertirse en el primer huracán de la temporada incluso...
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230237
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014
The convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled
this evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and
east of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held
at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The
satellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the
SHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear
associated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is
currently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this
environment should support only gradual intensification. As the
trough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for
more strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over
warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN
intensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models.
The center of the depression has been difficult to locate with
geostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite
fixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of
days, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north
of the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official
forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the
guidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean,
and GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge
rebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is
slower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the
east of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the
guidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the
NHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the
previous one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the
north and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model
consensus at that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2716/01e_adl6.gif)
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aqui la trayectoria (http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201401.gif)
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aqui el vapor de agua (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/wv-animated.gif)
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Bueno.. pues ya tenemos a AMANDA!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BoV68CIIIAAf8Tk.png:large)
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Primer bichillo de la temporada en el Pacífico este,y tiene buena pinta.Parece que no va a tocar tierra por lo que los daños serán mínimos.Se mueve por un entorno favorable para que pase a huracán,aguas calentitas y poca cizalladura,aunque le durará poco:
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TXJJ2BkFc2c/U3_Jn1Fo0PI/AAAAAAAAG20/4-dw-k35toE/s1600/ir-animated+(1).gif)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A1U8afYqpjg/U3_L3G49ESI/AAAAAAAAG3U/x6_gzdUcSpc/s1600/tccapture+(1).gif)
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-At0H3ltZWMs/U3_MaEzonFI/AAAAAAAAG3c/DKxTUAtJ-R8/s1600/tccapture+(2).gif)
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Los huracanes en esta zona suelen ser bastante efímeros, porque las SSTs y cizalladura favorables se confinan en espacios relativamente pequeños...
Aspecto actual muy "suculento" ;D ;D ;D
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3143/amandaa_zcx6.gif)
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Habemus huracán............. el primero de la temporada, y seguro que el primero de una temporada muy activa en esta cuenca ;)
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 241437
TCDEP1
HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
An eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery
during the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also
revealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi
eye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising,
and Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak
estimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Amanda is
intensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours.
Amanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of
light vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period
of rapid intensification is likely to continue. The operational
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent
chance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours,
which is almost 15 times higher than normal. An experimental Joint
Hurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes
additional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances
of rapid intensification. Based on this guidance, Amanda is
forecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the
threshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours. After 48
hours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is
likely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to
decouple. Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of
the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is higher than the
previous one during the first 48 hours to account for the high
likelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely
unchanged thereafter.
Amanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the
initial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause
the hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next
24 hours. In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to
restrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level
trough amplifies near 130W. This pattern change should push Amanda
northward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be
fairly slow. The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side
of the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC
forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well,
especially beyond 36 hours. This track is also to the right of the
model consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Impresionante para un mes de mayo... :o
(http://i57.tinypic.com/11m6qfl.gif)
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2° más intenso tan pronto en la temporada :)
(http://img.tapatalk.com/d/14/05/25/uryzuba4.jpg)
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
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Amanece sobre el bicho, proporcionando imágenes increíbles como esta :o :o :o :o :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BofN5MjCIAAIy4o.png:large)
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Dando la campanada y rozando la categoría 5 según el CNH...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BofXo-BIcAIvzOX.png:large)
Amanda has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning, although
the hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. The 15 n mi
diameter eye remains quite distinct in infrared and first-light
visible satellite imagery, and a solid ring of cloud tops as cold
as -75C surround the eye. Subjective classifications at 1200 UTC
from TAFB and SAB were T7.0/140 kt and T6.5/127 kt, respectively.
The ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T6.6/130 kt, and those values
have continued to steadily increase to T6.8/135 kt as of 1330 UTC.
A blend of these intensity estimates easily support increasing the
intensity to 135 kt, which is just below category 5 strength on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Natl Hurricane Ctr @NHC_Pacific 8 min
#Amanda now strongest east Pacific May hurricane on record during the satellite era.
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Lo que tienen los Niños en ciernes...
Fantástico huracán.
Empieza a perder algo de fuelle a juzgar por las imágenes de la NAvy, especialmente por el flanco W
(http://i59.tinypic.com/2r44i6p.jpg)
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Impresionante animación del ojo de Amanda, cortesía de la CIMSS
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/1405235_goes15_goes14_goes13_visible_amanda_anim.gif (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/1405235_goes15_goes14_goes13_visible_amanda_anim.gif)
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Gran huracan Amanda categoria 4 bate record como el mas intenso para un mes de mayo (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/3995-gran-huracan-amanda-categoria-4-bate-record-como-el-mas-intenso-para-un-mes-de-mayo)
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Genial seguimiento! Pronto empieza la temporada este año :o
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Sorprendente AMANDA... a pesar de que la cizalladura ayer empezaba a ejercer su labor inclinando los centros del ciclón y haciendo que este sucumbiese... de repente el huracán ha decidido luchar, regenerando su convección y su ojo, reintensificándose hasta los 110 KT...
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270848
TCDEP1
HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014
Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank :D1. The hurricane
appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but
its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past
several hours. An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded
by convective tops as cold as -85C. The shear is still affecting
the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to
north. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt
from TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective
ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on
a conservative blend of these data.
The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant
change to the official intensity forecast. Weakening is expected
to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which
should persist for another 24 hours or so. After that time,
however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest
of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which
could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level
environment for a few days. Due to the higher initial intensity and
the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity
forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may
not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period.
Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end
of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU
Superensemble. The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest
of the intensity models end up being correct.
Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt...
between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level
trough near 20N128W. As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is
forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn
northeastward by 48 hours. Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak
low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to
stall or meander by days 4 and 5. Although there is still a
significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of
the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying
on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has
also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
El MIMIC recoge muy bien tal circunstancia...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7255/gifsBy12hr_06ama_vug3.gif)
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GFS lleva a AMANDA cerca de la costa norte de México, manteniendo cierta intensidad... mucho ojo con él, a pesar de las previsiones de rápido debilitamiento...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BopSC_aCUAAirGT.png:large)