En el NHC no lo tienen muy claro, pero Blanca ha perdido mucho fuelle en las últimas horas. El
forecaster Avila apuesta por el afloramiento de aguas frías por el lento desplazamiento del huracán, y por un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo que no parece claro al 100% que haya ocurrido. Sea como fuere, de los 120 KT de ayer ha bajado a los 95KT... y es que todo lo que sube, baja...
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041444
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015
It appears that the combination of upwelling and an eyewall
replacement cycle has resulted in significant weakening of
Blanca during the past 18 hours or so. The eye is not as clear as
it was yesterday, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric
around what is left of the eye. Based on decreasing subjective and
objective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to
95 kt at this time. However, as soon as Blanca moves out of the area
where the upwelling has occurred in 12 to 24 hours, another round of
strengthening is anticipated, but not as much as indicated
yesterday. The NHC forecast is consistent with the SHIPS intensity
guidance, which still insists on forecasting restrengthening as the
cyclone moves again over warm waters. Beyond 48 hours, increasing
shear and cool waters should induce gradual weakening as Blanca
approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Satellite fixes indicate that Blanca has begun to move slowly toward
the northwest or 325 degrees at 3 knots. The subtropical ridge which
has been blocking the motion of the cyclone is forecast to shift
eastward by most of the global models while a trough approaches the
west coast of the United States. This steering pattern favors a
general northwest to north-northwest track during the next 5 days.
The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows closely
the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 12.3N 105.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.2N 105.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.5N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 108.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.2N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.0N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
Tema: Gran huracan Blanca 02E, cat 4 - Pacifico Noreste, temporada 2015 (Leído 2151 veces)