Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Junio 01, 2015, 12:33:52 pm
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Al mismo tiempo que ayer Andres se fortalecía subiendo a categoría 3, otra baja conseguía desarrollar LLCC y convertirse en un nuevo ciclón tropical, en este caso depresión tropical 02E, y que se prevé se convierta en Blanca a lo largo de la tarde de hoy :D Los modelos lo llevan a ser el próximo huracán de la temporada en el EPAC.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-J2gUMiyTbHw/VWw0x9_mbpI/AAAAAAAACl8/HcSmbLtC6zI/w720-h480-no/teoe.gif)
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Recién salido del horno...
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 011438
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015
...TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 104.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Blanca va a hacer... BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!! ;)
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 30 sHace 31 segundos
Tropical Storm Blanca over 29.5-30°C SST
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGbqAAfUYAA-Eky.png:large)
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Blanca estimaciones más recientes según técnica ADT:
CI# 4.5
Pressure: 981.5mb
Vmax: 77.0kt
Pronóstico de intensificación favorable para las próximas 12 horas y extremadamente favorable en 24 horas. Menos cizalladura y excelente outflow. Estructuralmente la última imagen de microondas no deja lugar a dudas de su progresiva organización. El entorno de baja cizalladura y elevadísimas SST ayudará sin duda a su rápida intensificación, seguro cat.4, cat.5 probable.
(http://i57.tinypic.com/oggg42.jpg)
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Inmenso CDO que está intentando aclarar un ojo justo en el centro... hoy será huracán.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGf93VkWsAEsQVP.jpg:large)
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015
Blanca is intensifying. Geostationary imagery shows a CDO and
prominent banding features, and a 0828Z AMSR-2 image from GCOM-W1
showed a low- and mid-level eye feature. The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and the latest ADT is
T4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this
advisory. Given that Blanca has developed the inner-core features
seen in microwave imagery and the shear is now below 10 kt, the
cyclone appears to be poised for a period of rapid intensification.
The NHC forecast is near the highest guidance, showing Blanca
becoming a major hurricane tomorrow, and conditions appear favorable
for continued strengthening through 72 hours, when the SHIPS, LGEM
and FSU Superensemble all show a peak near 120 kt. However, even
this forecast could be conservative given that the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the first 24 hours.
The shear increases while the cyclone moves over cooler waters at
days 4 and 5, which should result in steady if not rapid weakening
by the end of the forecast period.
Blanca has been moving little over the past few hours, and little
motion is expected through 36 hours while steering currents remain
weak. By 48 hours, a slow northwestward motion should begin as a
ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and a faster
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on days 4
and 5. The track model guidance is in general agreement on this
scenario, but there continues to be some cycle-to-cycle variability
late in the period. The multi-model consensus has shifted to the
right again this cycle at days 4 and 5, but only minor changes were
made to the NHC track, which now lies to the west of the consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 13.1N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.0N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 12.8N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.3N 105.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 19.0N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Veremos si inicia la RI.............
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGgRtIZWcAA-6Wd.jpg:large)
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Modelos de Intensidad:
(http://i59.tinypic.com/21o1zq8.png)
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Es curioso, pero GFDL y HWRF no lo intensifican mucho... solo GFS, de este grupo de conocidos.
Por otro lado, menudos borbotones convectivos ha desarrollado nuestra amiga esta tarde.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-c6v1x5uLgjk/VW4DtVWJMtI/AAAAAAAACm4/b_0itGC0Ae8/w720-h480-no/blancaa.gif)
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Para la NRL ya es huracán...................
02EBLANCA.65kts-989mb-131N-1046W
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGhgPOsUgAAtQka.png:large)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022031
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015
Blanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of
an eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was
evident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane
for this advisory. Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12
hours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable
environment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity
forecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should
support rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major
hurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days,
and this could be conservative. After 72 hours, the cyclone should
begin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear
increases. The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models
through the period.
The tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is
expected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak.
After that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of
Blanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3,
with the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4
and 5. The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day
5. The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the
right, showing a track into the Gulf of California. On the other
side of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much
slower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca
southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very
close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Note that it is too soon
to determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California
peninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in
the east Pacific.
Blanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the
eastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGfroXbW8AAvEZD.png)
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Blanca está generando ojo... justo en el centro de un CDO con topes muy fríos. Está pegando el petardazo...
(http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/06/02/f8731103f4f96beab868e8e216dd1b9d.jpg)
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Esperaba mucho más, nunca dejan de sorprenderme. A ver qué tal se porta hoy.
(http://i59.tinypic.com/2yl4p5v.jpg)
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Parece estar jugando al ratón y al gato, aunque en las últimas horas parece estar desarrollando un pinhole eye... a falta de imágenes de microondas.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-iUPZbRt3iPc/VW7EkCfT_VI/AAAAAAAACno/ilXN6SQttOA/w720-h480-no/bb.gif)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030857
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015
Satellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly
strengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past
couple of hours. This is consistent with earlier microwave data
that revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent
microwave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure.
Dvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but
with the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95
kt. This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the
past 24 hour period.
Rapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24
hours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear
environment. The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,
and Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant
intensification during the next day or so, and all of these models
bring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official
forecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first
2 to 3 days. After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and
cooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as
Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Blanca has been nearly stationary overnight. Little motion is
expected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to
begin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast
of the hurricane. Blanca is expected to accelerate north-
northwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned
ridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California. The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there
remains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane. The
GFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is
the slowest. The NHC forecast is again close to the previous
advisory and near the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Con la migración del foro, se han perdido algunos posts aquí... es una pena! Pero da igual porque la cuestión es que Blanca se ha intensificado 60 KT y profundizado 51 hPa en tan solo 24 horas, pasando de categoría 1 a la 4 :o :o :o :o :o
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Esta animación muestra el desarrollo del pinhole eye y la explosión de poder durante la mañana...
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-hkrClvDTTio/VW7g7PxpQfI/AAAAAAAACoU/MuXdSA599H4/w720-h480-no/bb.gif)
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Después da la impresión de que los topes nubosos se han calentado algo, y es que parece que Blanca al moverse tan lentamente ha conseguido sacar a la superficie aguas más frías. Por lo tanto, podría haber perdido fuelle, aunque sea momentaneamente.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-S_Cwegy3VCI/VW9ZE9OIi8I/AAAAAAAACpI/vKzkdxHFG34/w720-h480-no/gjmch.gif)
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Blanca es ahora un cat.3. Coincido con Pedro en que el "upwelling" o subida a la superficie de aguas más frías -resultado de permanecer tantas horas estacionario- le ha perjudicado.
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Blanca es ahora un cat.3. Coincido con Pedro en que el "upwelling" o subida a la superficie de aguas más frías -resultado de permanecer tantas horas estacionario- le ha perjudicado.
Estos monstruos convectivos es lo que tienen... y es lo que los hace tan fascinantes. :D
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Radiografía de Blanca... mantiene mucha convección pero su eyewall es menos intenso que ayer y el ojo más grande.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGpuAAmXIAEFjAV.jpg:large)
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En el NHC no lo tienen muy claro, pero Blanca ha perdido mucho fuelle en las últimas horas. El forecaster Avila apuesta por el afloramiento de aguas frías por el lento desplazamiento del huracán, y por un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo que no parece claro al 100% que haya ocurrido. Sea como fuere, de los 120 KT de ayer ha bajado a los 95KT... y es que todo lo que sube, baja...
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041444
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015
It appears that the combination of upwelling and an eyewall
replacement cycle has resulted in significant weakening of
Blanca during the past 18 hours or so. The eye is not as clear as
it was yesterday, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric
around what is left of the eye. Based on decreasing subjective and
objective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to
95 kt at this time. However, as soon as Blanca moves out of the area
where the upwelling has occurred in 12 to 24 hours, another round of
strengthening is anticipated, but not as much as indicated
yesterday. The NHC forecast is consistent with the SHIPS intensity
guidance, which still insists on forecasting restrengthening as the
cyclone moves again over warm waters. Beyond 48 hours, increasing
shear and cool waters should induce gradual weakening as Blanca
approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Satellite fixes indicate that Blanca has begun to move slowly toward
the northwest or 325 degrees at 3 knots. The subtropical ridge which
has been blocking the motion of the cyclone is forecast to shift
eastward by most of the global models while a trough approaches the
west coast of the United States. This steering pattern favors a
general northwest to north-northwest track during the next 5 days.
The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows closely
the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 12.3N 105.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.2N 105.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.5N 107.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 108.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 17.5N 109.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.2N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.0N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 051435
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
The intensity of Blanca has been oscillating around 85 and 90 kt
since yesterday. Latest satellite intensity estimates indicate
that there has been no change, and the winds are currently 85 kt.
Deep convection is beginning to increase and is becoming better
organized around the large circulation center. This could be an
indication that some restrengthening is about to begin. The
hurricane has about 24 hours to do so before the SSTs decrease,
which should result in gradual weakening. In fact, Blanca is
forecast to be a tropical storm as it moves near the southern Baja
California peninsula and become a remnant low over the high terrain
of the peninsula. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
en route to investigate Blanca and will provide more information
regarding the intensity and structure of the cyclone.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
320 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is moving around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the United States and northern
Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will become steered by the
southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
turn more toward the north. The dynamical guidance is now in much
better agreement, bringing the cyclone near or over the southern
Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours or so. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the very tight
guidance envelope.
Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.1N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.6N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.4N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Ha mejorado mucho desde ayer, lo cual se hace patente en su presentación satelital... tanto es así que ha recuperado la categoría 3 y con vientos de 105 a 110 KT, que está muy bien ya que por poco no se planta de nuevo en la categoría 4!
El CNH pronostica mantenimiento de esta intensidad en las próximas 12 horas al menos, o incluso con posibilidad de que pueda fortalecerse un poco más... ¡veremos!
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-s1YLL3BPK1k/VXLmJlVvlMI/AAAAAAAACp4/LQVstl7m2kw/w720-h480-no/cvgnv.gif)
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Animación de la rápida intensificación de #Blanca de Cat 1 a Cat 3 en tan solo 18 horas.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GLYa6Mt22x0/VXLm53F4_JI/AAAAAAAACkU/92DP0yCqiBk/w426-h381/last24hrs-blanca.gif)
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Pues ya es categoría 4 de nuevo... :o :o :o :o Y su aspecto satelital es espectacular... Sobre todo su ojo con ese intento de doble vórtice...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CG01-ejW0AASiPq.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CG018uYWcAAspOl.png)
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Más espectaculares de Blanca. La primera de ayer tomada por el Suomi NPP, que muestra al huracán con un ojo muy parecido al de un pulpo.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CG1fnfaW0AA2aGd.png)
Hoy, un ojo muy sexy!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CG1fnKhXAAA-e7H.png)
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Bellísima la evolución a través del producto MIMIC del CIMSS :o :o :o :o
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-rpF-WkauSfU/VXM34vZ5kaI/AAAAAAAACqk/LH-XZeziO2Y/w712-h534-no/fgn.gif)
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Animación de #Blanca de Cat 1 a Cat 4 (43 Kts) en menos de 24 h
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Wp8ajSFCKVU/VXNGweehTYI/AAAAAAAACk8/RCUnT5AblIg/w346-h310/last24hrs-blanca.gif)
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Paso del eyewall de Blanca sobre la Isla de Socorro, donde se ha reportado racha de 101 mph... :o
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZtYmvYGujSA/VXQaD-mJjHI/AAAAAAAACrY/Hpv3hk7g9s0/w712-h534-no/gnfg.gif)
A partir de entonces, Blanca ha comenzado a debilitarse y su convección erosionada por el flanco este debido a la cizalladura, que se está notando también en una inclinación de su eje vertical. Debe alcanzar Baja California Sur como tormenta tropical.
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Los Cabos - Baja California Sur - Webcams de México http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cabo-san-lucas.html (http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cabo-san-lucas.html)
Anda la cosa revuelta por allí, aunque no tanto porque Blanca se está deshaciendo a pasos agigantados...
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Si comienza a enfriarse al llegar a la Baja California , es porque puede que haya tropezado con la corriente fría de California :-\
Desde luego las imágenes son espectaculares ;)