Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Mayo 18, 2012, 10:48:38 am
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Cuando ALETTA todavía sobrevive como depresión tropical, al este y cerca de la costa mexicana, hay otra zona de baja presión, la 92E, que presenta una poderosa convección y no parece que tarde en convertirse en BUD, la segunda tormenta de la temporada de huracanes del Pacífico Noreste...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3111/2012EP92_4KMSRBDC_201205180815_lnu1.jpg)
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Después de que la actividad y organización de este sistema decayera ayer, se ha recuperado y ahora muestra un 80% de probabilidades de convertirse en un ciclón tropical... BUD está a tiro de piedra!
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
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Aunque no hay confirmación todavía en la página del NHC, parece que ya tenemos el segundo ciclón tropical de la temporada en el Pacífico Noreste...
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Efectivamente.............
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 210237
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 99.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Y probablemente terminará siendo BUD ...
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Y ojito con él... que puede golpear a México como huracán :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X Comienza muy fuerte la temporada en esta cuenca, la leche....... :o :o :o :o
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Esta depresión tropical no se ha mostrado mejor organizada desde yaer, según el CNH, y también deducción que es fácil de hacer viendo la última imagen satelital visible que muestra al ára de baja presión rodeada de una poderosa convección, pero sin que se haya compactado o tornado mejor organizada.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7144/2012EP02_1KMSRVIS_201205211245_zzl8.GIF)
LAs previsiones siguen intactas en cuanto a la posibilidad de que de este sistema nazca BUD y que se convierta en el primer huracán de 2012 en esta cuenca... Con México en el punto de mira.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210850
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A
NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE LARGE DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.
GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY
SHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL
RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 9.4N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 9.7N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Noticia en portada: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2675-la-costa-oeste-de-mexico-podria-ser-golpeada-por-un-huracan-en-5-dias.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2675-la-costa-oeste-de-mexico-podria-ser-golpeada-por-un-huracan-en-5-dias.html)
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Sin cambios todavía, aunque se espera que pronto comience a coger fuelle...............
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211448
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT
UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
BEING MADE. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW
FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...
THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72
AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT
12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 9.2N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.6N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Atención que según los pronósticos puede llegar a huracán de categoría 2...
Estamos fuera de temporada y ya van 2 tormentas..increible
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Atención que según los pronósticos puede llegar a huracán de categoría 2...
Estamos fuera de temporada y ya van 2 tormentas..increible
Bueno, la del Pacífico Noreste comenzó el 15 de mayo............... La del Atlántico empieza el 1 de junio :)
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Bien; observando las últimas imágenes del visible, la organización de nuestra depresión ha mejorado sustancialmente, una circulación ciclónica aparece más contraída y mejor consolidada en niveles bajos... Por lo que es muy probable que en la siguiente actualización de productos del CNH considere que la 02L ya es tormenta tropical, recibiendo el nombre de BUD.
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Hace poco rato que ha salido la actualización de productos, y todavía no tenemos a BUD, pero la mejora en la organización es oficial ;)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212047
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
A 1640 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS MADE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MORE
READILY APPARENT...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT. THE ASCAT DATA IS ALSO SHOWING WINDS NO HIGHER THAN
25-30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION.
THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION HAS RESULTED IN A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF 290/5 KT. THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
INSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BEGIN SOON. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS
INCREASED TO 56 PERCENT FOR THE 25-KT THRESHOLD AND 40 PERCENT FOR
THE 30-KT THRESHOLD DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
36 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND HWRF. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 72 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN SOME FASHION BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND NOW
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE A HURRICANE ON DAY 5.
BUT...AS ALREADY STATED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 9.6N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 10.2N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 11.3N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.0N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Supongo que para esta tarde ya la tendremos oficialmente como TT.
Esta parece que va a ser gorda...
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Ya la tenemos aquí.............. Tormenta tropical BUD.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT
WINDS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...
THE SECOND OF THE 2012 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY TODAY. BY
TONIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUD. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING
SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.
CENTER FIXES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES DURING THE PAST
12-18 HOURS SHOWS THAT BUD IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...295/10 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND BECOMES QUITE LARGE. THERE ARE
BASICALLY TWO CAMPS OF MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE...THOSE THAT SHOW A
DEEPER TROUGH WHICH CAUSES BUD TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MEXICO...AND A SECOND GROUP THAT TURNS BUD NORTHEASTWARD...BUT
SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT NEARS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD
FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 10.4N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 12.4N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.3N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.3N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Afortunadamente, al menos de momento, para los mexicanos, es menos probable que BUD alcance la costa de México como huracán, ya que es posible que las condiciones ambientales se tornasen menos favorables, haciendo que el ciclón se debilite durante la aproximación.
Otro dato de gran interés es que BUD sienta un nuevo récord: primera vez que la segunda tormenta tropical de la temporada en el Pacífico Este se forma tan temprano ;) La anterior fecha para la segunda tormenta tropical más temprana era el 29 de mayo ;D
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BUD se resiste a intensificarse, según el CNH debido a una cizalladura moderada que está inhibiendo tal proceso... Con lo cual, cuanto más tarda en empezar a coger fuelle, mayor probalidad de que su pico de intensidad sea menor...
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221438
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
WITHOUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE
CENTER OF BUD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH DOES KEEP THE CENTER
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MANUAL AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL YIELD AN INTENSITY AROUND 35
KT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING WESTWARD...AND BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODELS FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUD SHOULD STILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3 WHEN IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...BUT SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREVENTING
BUD FROM REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST. THE ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER ON DAY 3...BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF MODELS...BUT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS BUD STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ON THOSE DAYS.
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO TONE
DOWN THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL
SHOWS BUD REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 11.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Noticia en portada: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2682-el-nacimiento-de-la-tormenta-tropical-bud-establece-un-nuevo-record.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2682-el-nacimiento-de-la-tormenta-tropical-bud-establece-un-nuevo-record.html)
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Sorprendentemente, BUD se resiste a intensificarse, a pesar de que actualmente las condiciones son más favorables para ello... Este ciclón está dando muchas sorpresas :P Parece que ni siquiera llegará a alcanzar la categoría de huracán, en principio.....................
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230840
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
THE CENTER OF BUD HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.5 AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SURPRISING THAT BUD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CERTAINLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING BUD AND NOW THE ONLY
MODEL THAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE GFDL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN 2-3 DAYS...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND DRIER AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. IT APPEARS THAT BUD IS
BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS
BUD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM. AFTER THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF BUD THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 13.3N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/288/bud_yzr7.jpg)
-
BUD por fin ha decidido fortalecerse y de nuevo el CNH contempla la posibilidad de que consiga alcanzar la categoría de huracán...
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
RECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW
THAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY
STRENGTHENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO
THE EAST. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.
BUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR
70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5401/bud_hla2.jpg)
-
A esperar, BUD espero que si se consolida, no llegue a México haciendo desastres.
-
Finalmente, BUD ha conseguido fortalecerse y alcanzar la categoría de huracán... Ha despistado mucho a los meteorólogos!
Se aproximará a las costas mexicanas pero no hará impacto directo, si no que dará un profundo giro hacia aguas abiertas de nuevo.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO. THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
-
Espectacular la imagen en falso color :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7262/ft0_lalo_tvx8.jpg)
-
BUD sube a categoría 2... y sus peligrosos efectos se ciernen sobre México...
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241439
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2. THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
AIR. IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...
AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT
MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL. THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.
BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
030 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...
WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON
DAY 3.
DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
-
Noticia en portada: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2687-la-costa-oeste-de-mexico-en-alerta-ante-la-aproximacion-del-huracan-bud.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2687-la-costa-oeste-de-mexico-en-alerta-ante-la-aproximacion-del-huracan-bud.html)
-
Hay un avión cazahuracanes en ruta para investigar a BUD, que ha seguido intensificándose más desde el último aviso............. Y viendo su estructura a través de imágenes microondas, no es descartable que BUD haya alcanzado la categoría 3, convirtiéndose en un "major" :o :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1205/budmicro_eka9.jpg)
-
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 05/21/12 9.3N 99.6W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 05/21/12 9.4N 100.1W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 05/21/12 9.2N 101.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 05/21/12 9.6N 101.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 05/22/12 9.8N 101.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 05/22/12 10.4N 103.0W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 05/22/12 11.1N 104.0W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/22/12 12.0N 105.0W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/23/12 12.9N 105.9W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/23/12 13.3N 106.5W 40 1004 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 05/23/12 13.4N 107.6W 65 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/23/12 13.9N 107.8W 65 995 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/24/12 14.2N 107.9W 70 991 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/24/12 15.0N 107.5W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 05/24/12 15.7N 106.7W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 05/24/12 16.4N 106.4W 110 962 Category 2 Hurricane
Uffff... Está a punto de caramelo para ser categoría 3 !!!!!!!
El avión cazahuracanes no ha terminado de investigar a BUD correctamente, de ahí que el predictor haya estimado que de momento mantiene la intensidad en 95 KT.
Pero lo más importante es que se ha activado la alerta de huracán en la costa mexicana porque ahora los pronósticos sí contemplan un impacto del centro del ciclón, antes de virar de nuevo hacia aguas abiertas.
-
En algunos portales ya aparece BUD como un "major".................. Probablemente lo sea.
EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD
-
Pues no................. Se queda justo debajo de la intensidad de huracán mayor.... ::)
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242350
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
...BUD REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
-
BRUTAL................... La última actualización de datos del CNH sobre BUD lo eleva a la categoría de "major"....................... No creo que haya muchos casos similares para un mes de mayo... ::) De hecho, según Jeff Masters, sólo se han producido 2 "majors" en mayo desde que se tienen registros (1949) (:B) BUD se convierte en el tercero...
Además, alcanzará la costa mexicana como huracán, aunque muy debilitado... Mucho ojo los mexicanos!!!
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250233
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
-
Es bestial.......... :o :o :o El Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida dice que, a partir del análisis de imágenes satelitales en modo microondas y convencionales, BUD se ha convertido en un huracán anular :o :o :o :o :o :o
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250240
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.
BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
No obstante, en las últimas imágenes se observa un deterioro sensible del patrón nuboso del ciclón.......... tiene que haber alcanzado su pico de intensidad.
-
como está la cosa de interesante este mes de mayo! records por todas partes,
-
El huracán 'Bud' baja a categoría 1 mientras avanza a la costa mexicana.
El huracán Bud se debilitó este viernes de categoría 3 a categoría 1, pero continúa avanzando hacia las costas de los estados de Jalisco y Colima, en el Pacífico mexicano, donde las autoridades reportan fuertes vientos y lluvias.
El ciclón tiene vientos sostenidos de 130 kilómetros por hora.
-
Preciosa imagen proporcionada por el satélite Suomi. Imagen de las 9 UTC del pasado 24 de mayo....
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-dXTvgSwmtAM/T8AED6C8kkI/AAAAAAAABX8/yDO0Eh6jgcE/s950/bud-suoni.jpg)
-
Imagen del satélite del NOAA GOES-East tomada a las 1345z el 25 de mayo de 2012. En ese momento el centro de la circulación estaba a sólo 110 millas de la costa mexicana.
El Centro Nacional de Huracanes prevé que toque tierra se producirá alrededor de las 5am PDT el sábado como una tormenta tropical.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QQjwXV1JMco/T8AFUNKuGkI/AAAAAAAABYI/TIh5HdAgoA8/s950/bud-aproximandose.jpg)
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Imagen del satélite del NOAA GOES-East tomada a las 1345z el 25 de mayo de 2012. En ese momento el centro de la circulación estaba a sólo 110 millas de la costa mexicana.
El Centro Nacional de Huracanes prevé que toque tierra se producirá alrededor de las 5am PDT el sábado como una tormenta tropical.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QQjwXV1JMco/T8AFUNKuGkI/AAAAAAAABYI/TIh5HdAgoA8/s950/bud-aproximandose.jpg)
Impresionante está imagen del satélite! sin palabras! :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1
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BUD ha batido un nuevo récord :P http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2696-bud-es-el-huracan-mas-poderoso-de-la-cuenca-del-pacifico-noreste-en-formarse-tan-pronto-en-mayo.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2696-bud-es-el-huracan-mas-poderoso-de-la-cuenca-del-pacifico-noreste-en-formarse-tan-pronto-en-mayo.html)