000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250243
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SYMMETRIC
HURRICANE WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN...WELL-DEFINED
EYE...AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T7.0...140 KT.  THESE
DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KT...MAKING CELIA A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.  CELIA WILL SOON PASS OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE RAPID
WEAKENING COMMENCING BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW.  LATER ON... GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE HURRICANE...WHICH
SHOULD AID THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.   

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS NOW
MOVING 285/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF CELIA
DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE HURRICANE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AT
THAT TIME... LEADING TO A LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE BEST BET
AT THIS POINT IS THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN STEERING
CURRENTS GETTING QUITE WEAK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5... AND THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CELIA AT THAT TIME FRAME. 

CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W   140 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W   140 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W   115 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W    95 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250841
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

CELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS.

IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W   140 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W   130 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W   105 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

La verdad es que este hilo no está teniendo demasiada participación... Lo cierto es que últimamente andamos bastante cojos con los seguimientos cicloneros. Es una pena que esto no atraiga a tanta gente como hace unos años, en que el foro se ponía super bonito de gente participando en estos seguimientos. Qué le vamos a hacer... Somos los que somos...