-
Buf! El EPAC está que hierve! Nueva depresión tropical, la 4ª de la temporada, y con potencial de convertirse en CELIA.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
530 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED
IN A 19/0805Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE ONLY T1.0/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN THE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE MOVES THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE MORE LOWER LATITUDE AND SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST TRACK. AS A
RESULT OF THE WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...COASTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH A NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE
89-GHZ CHANNEL. BASED ON THIS IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE...AT
LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND
GFDL...WHICH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE
SHIPS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL TRACK
WHICH BRINGS THIS CYCLONE OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK INDICATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1230Z 12.8N 97.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.6N 97.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 100.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 12.5N 106.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 108.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN
-
Supongo que el EPAC aprovecha su mes, en que mejor van a estar las condiciones para la formación de ciclón tropical. Cuidado con este sistema pudiera llegar a ser un huracán más o menos fuerte, sin llegar a tocar tierra ::) ::) ::)
-
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP
WKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF
T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
CELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...
COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.5N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.4N 98.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.3N 99.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN
-
Tenemos a CELIA
TORMENTA TROPICAL CELIA
30kts-1007mb
(http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2244/201006191715goes13vis1k.jpg)
(http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/7500/201004e.png)
-
Celia va a ser el primer huracan en poder convertirse en un huracan mayor. me da la impresion.
Pedro, a colgar la tipica imagen de satelite de los 4 paneles se ha dicho ;D me encanta esa composicion satelital :D1 :D1 :D1
-
TIENE PINTA DE MAJOR SI... :o
(http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/7667/201006191807trmmxtmi85h.jpg)
(http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/1505/201006192115goes13xir1k.jpg)
:D1
:o
-
Juer con las previs del CNH... LLaman a CELIA a convertirse en un major... :-X
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200916
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
CORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT TO 55 KT
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 55 KT.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER
CELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A
BIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED...
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO
PREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60
HOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL
FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
FASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.0N 99.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
-
Que interesante se pone CELIA ::). Poco le falta para la categoría 1.
TORMENTA TROPICAL CELIA
55kts-994mb
(http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/8251/ir4.jpg)
-
Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 55 kt (101.8 km/h).
Rachas máximas: 65 kt (120.3 km/h).
Presión: 994 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste a 6 kt (11.1 km/h)
(http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/8564/imagengoes.jpg)
-
En esa imagen ya se le adivina un ojo por lo que, si no es huracán, debe de estar próximo a serlo ;)
-
CIMSS indica que ya es huracán, por lo que me decido a cambiar el nombre al hilo 8) Y tiene el campo abonado para seguir reforzándose, con permiso de la cizalladura ;)
-
pues si Pedro, confirmado. el centro nacional de huracanes de miami ya lo ha nombrado como huracan.
y la prevision es mas que alentadora:
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1606/grafi.gif)
-
Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 70 kt (129.6 km/h)
Rachas máximas: 82 kt (151.8 km)
Presion: 987 mb
Movimiento: Oeste a 8 kts (14.8 km/h)
En esta imagen, se ve claramente el ojo del huracan bien formado:
(http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/7259/84209297.jpg)
-
Celia ya es Huracan Categoria 2 ,con 90 kt , y con una presion de 970 mb
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220834
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
CELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO
FEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS
TIME. AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN
EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000
UTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB....USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...REMAIN AT 5.0...
CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST
OUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA
SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
MODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD. SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/7. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THEREFORE CONTINUE IT MAINLY WESTWARD TREK. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THE GLOBAL
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...BY DAY 4...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE TRACK MODELS AND ALSO BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
EXCLUDES THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRACK THAT APPEARS TO
BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL GUIDANCE
SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W 105 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 06/19/10 12.8N 97.0W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 06/19/10 12.5N 97.1W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/19/10 12.4N 98.0W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 06/20/10 12.1N 98.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 06/20/10 12.0N 99.4W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/20/10 11.9N 100.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/20/10 11.6N 100.3W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/21/10 11.6N 100.9W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/21/10 11.8N 102.1W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 06/21/10 11.8N 102.4W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/21/10 11.6N 103.3W 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/22/10 11.7N 103.9W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/22/10 11.8N 104.7W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
Fuente:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ep201004.track.html#a_topad
-
Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 91 kt (168.5 km/h)
Rachas máximas: 109 kt (201.8 km/h)
Presión: 970 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste a 7 kt (12.9 km/h)
Se ve que tiene buena pinta el bicho :D1
(http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/4899/52030038.jpg)
-
Se mantiene como categoría 2 la señora CELIA ;D, aunque pierde algo de fuelle
CICLÓN TROPICAL CELIA CATEGORÍA 2
85kts-972mb
(http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/8175/201006221830goes11ir04e.jpg)
Y con posibilidad de convertirse en categoría 3 o por lo menos rozarla.
-
En esta imagen de satelite de los 4 paneles se le ve el ojo caracteristico. si es verdad lo que dices Eker, parece que se ha desinflado un poco :-\
(http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/6175/26887166.jpg)
-
Buena animacion que me he descargado de Navy. nos muestra claramente la rotacion de CELIA. para guardar ;)
(http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/3108/201006222200goes11xvis1.gif)
-
Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 73 kt (135.2 km/h)
Rachas Máximas: 91 kt (168.5 km/h)
Presión: 980 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste a 9 kt (16.6 km/h)
Parece que al final no va a ser un major, ya que segun las previsiones no pasara de categoria 2. y asi esta ocurriendo; la velocidad de los vientos cada vez va a menos :-\
(http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/4229/14557540.jpg)
-
100kt
(http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1221/2010ep041kmsrvis2010062.gif)
A ver que dice el parte, no es oficial aún... :P
-
Me doy con un canto en los dientes por lo que dije antes :-X
Al final es categoria 3 (huracan major) e incluso puede subir a categoria 4 en las proximas horas :o :o
(http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/6195/3666.gif)
-
CELIA se refuerza y es categoría 3. Gale a cambiar el título ;)
CICLÓN TROPICAL CELIA CATEGORÍA 3
100kts-963mb
(http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/4958/201006232130goes11ir04e.jpg)
No se muestra el ojo en la imagen de sat.
-
ADT le da rachas más intensas de viento
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2010 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:00 N Lon : 110:20:55 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 936.2mb/109.8kt
Posibilidad de llegar a categoría 4
-
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 232038
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010
CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE EYE NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AND WARMER THAN EARLIER AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5/102 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 100 KT...A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE IT IS
OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE CYCLONE REMAINING IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN NUDGED UPWARD...DUE TO THE INITIAL HIGHER INTENSITY...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
EROSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 12.3N 110.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 12.6N 112.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 13.1N 114.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 13.8N 117.0W 110 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
-
Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 95 kt (176 km/h)
Rachas máximas: 113 kt (209.6 km/h)
Presión: 967 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste-Noroeste a 11 kt (20.3 km/h)
A perdido algo de intensidad a ya no muestra ojo, nose si sera un reemplazamiento del ojo ???
(http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4442/35367412.jpg)
-
CELIA pierde su ojo y baja a categoría 2 nuevamente.
CICLÓN TROPICAL CELIA CATEGORÍA 2
95kts-967mb
(http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/8251/ir4.jpg)
-
Historia Tropical
06/19 12 GMT 12.80 -97.00 35 1007 Tropical Depression
06/19 15 GMT 12.50 -97.10 40 1005 Tropical Storm
06/19 21 GMT 12.40 -98.00 45 1002 Tropical Storm
06/20 3 GMT 12.10 -98.70 65 994 Tropical Storm
06/20 9 GMT 12.00 -99.40 65 994 Tropical Storm
06/20 15 GMT 11.90 -100.00 65 994 Tropical Storm
06/20 21 GMT 11.60 -100.30 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
06/21 3 GMT 11.60 -100.90 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
06/21 9 GMT 11.80 -102.10 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
06/21 15 GMT 11.80 -102.40 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
06/21 21 GMT 11.60 -103.30 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
06/22 3 GMT 11.70 -103.90 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
06/22 9 GMT 11.80 -104.70 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
06/22 15 GMT 11.60 -105.30 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
06/22 21 GMT 11.80 -106.30 100 972 Category 2 Hurricane
06/23 3 GMT 11.90 -107.30 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
06/23 9 GMT 11.90 -108.00 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
06/23 15 GMT 12.20 -109.20 100 974 Category 2 Hurricane
06/23 21 GMT 12.30 -110.40 115 963 Category 3 Hurricane
06/24 3 GMT 12.40 -111.50 105 971 Category 2 Hurricane
Viendo la ADT, le otorgan según esta técnica menos vientos
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUN 2010 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 12:25:43 N Lon : 112:38:16 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 969.6mb/ 77.0kt
-
Juer...! Según el CNH ha subido a categoría 4 :o :o :o
(http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/7884/celiacat4.jpg)
-
Espectacular imagen Pedro! :o
-
(http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/4756/celiaydarby.jpg)
-
04E CELIA 100624 1800 12.6N 114.2W EPAC 115 948
04E CELIA 100624 1200 12.3N 113.3W EPAC 100 963
04E CELIA 100624 0600 12.3N 112.2W EPAC 95 967
04E CELIA 100624 0000 12.2N 111.1W EPAC 90 971
04E CELIA 100623 1800 12.1N 109.8W EPAC 100 963
04E CELIA 100623 1200 12.0N 108.6W EPAC 85 974
04E CELIA 100623 0600 11.8N 107.5W EPAC 75 980
04E CELIA 100623 0000 11.7N 106.7W EPAC 80 977
(http://img541.imageshack.us/img541/7250/24jun.jpg)
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A toda potencia !!!
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250243
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SYMMETRIC
HURRICANE WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN...WELL-DEFINED
EYE...AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T7.0...140 KT. THESE
DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KT...MAKING CELIA A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. CELIA WILL SOON PASS OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE RAPID
WEAKENING COMMENCING BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW. LATER ON... GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE HURRICANE...WHICH
SHOULD AID THE WEAKENING PROCESS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS NOW
MOVING 285/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF CELIA
DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE HURRICANE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AT
THAT TIME... LEADING TO A LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE BEST BET
AT THIS POINT IS THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN STEERING
CURRENTS GETTING QUITE WEAK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5... AND THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CELIA AT THAT TIME FRAME.
CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W 140 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W 115 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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:o :o :o :o :o
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Según Wunderground....
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 06/19/10 12.8N 97.0W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 06/19/10 12.5N 97.1W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/19/10 12.4N 98.0W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 06/20/10 12.1N 98.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 06/20/10 12.0N 99.4W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/20/10 11.9N 100.0W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/20/10 11.6N 100.3W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/21/10 11.6N 100.9W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/21/10 11.8N 102.1W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 06/21/10 11.8N 102.4W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/21/10 11.6N 103.3W 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/22/10 11.7N 103.9W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/22/10 11.8N 104.7W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 06/22/10 11.6N 105.3W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/22/10 11.8N 106.3W 100 972 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/23/10 11.9N 107.3W 90 977 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/23/10 11.9N 108.0W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 06/23/10 12.2N 109.2W 100 974 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/23/10 12.3N 110.4W 115 963 Category 3 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/24/10 12.4N 111.5W 105 971 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/24/10 12.6N 112.8W 110 967 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 06/24/10 12.5N 113.9W 115 962 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/24/10 12.8N 114.7W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/25/10 13.1N 115.9W 160 926 Category 5 Hurricane
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Joe con CELIA :o :o :o 8). Toda una señora categoría 5
CICLÓN TROPICAL CELIA CATEGORÍA 5
140kts-926mb
(http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/9895/201006250930goes11ir04e.jpg)
Perfección en estado puro
-
Algunas imágenes espectaculares
(http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/2110/201006242055aquavismodv.jpg)
(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/6291/201006250615terrairmodi.jpg)
(http://img541.imageshack.us/img541/7829/201006250234trmmcomposi.jpg)
:o :o
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Monstruoso! Portada dedicada a este superhuracán, y con muchos datos de interés:
http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/Noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones./CELIA-un-monstruo-de-categoria-5-en-el-Pacifico-Este.html
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250841
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
CELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT. THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS.
IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W 140 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W 130 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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04E CELIA 100625 0600 13.2N 116.5W EPAC 140 926
04E CELIA 100625 0000 12.9N 115.4W EPAC 135 932
(http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/6460/25jun.jpg)
-
(http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/4157/25bjun.jpg)
-
CELIA baja a categoría 4
130kts-935mb
(http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/7448/201006251830goes11ir04e.jpg)
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Impresionante bicho, totalmente forma de ensaimada y verems a ver si no ha rozado el ser anular por que era simetrico perfecto, en forma infraroja y microondas. Increible que no se le este prestando mas atencion por que es precioso y ademas lo suyo, sin hacer daño a nadie.
-
La verdad es que este hilo no está teniendo demasiada participación... Lo cierto es que últimamente andamos bastante cojos con los seguimientos cicloneros. Es una pena que esto no atraiga a tanta gente como hace unos años, en que el foro se ponía super bonito de gente participando en estos seguimientos. Qué le vamos a hacer... Somos los que somos... :-\
-
La verdad es que este hilo no está teniendo demasiada participación... Lo cierto es que últimamente andamos bastante cojos con los seguimientos cicloneros. Es una pena que esto no atraiga a tanta gente como hace unos años, en que el foro se ponía super bonito de gente participando en estos seguimientos. Qué le vamos a hacer... Somos los que somos... :-\
Por mi parte, decir que llevo años siguiendo la web y el foro y otros tantos años registrada, si no aporto datos u observaciones se debe a que una inmensa mayoría disponéis de unos conocimientos que ya quisiera para mi, sabéis donde buscar, y qué interpretaciones y observaciones aportar en el foro... pero, en mi caso, yo no soy persona que le guste aportar a los foros mensajes de escaso contenido como bien sea un "guauuu!" o un emoticono que proceda... de ahí que siempre prefiera disfrutar de cada uno de los comentarios que no poner datos repetidos o hablar en términos que pudieran ser inexactos.
Perdón por el offtopoquic, solo decir que seguro que hay mucha gente más como yo que os sigue a diario aunque no nos pronunciemos o se nos vea poco.
Saludos cordiales.
-
CELIA se encuentra en su declive, justo sobre aguas relativamente frías, con apenas 85 nudos asignados.
- NHC
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.3N 120.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 121.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 123.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.2N 124.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 124.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 16.4N 125.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 01/0600Z 16.5N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Comento esto para que le echéis un vistazo al Blog del CIMSS (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/5904), con una entrada muy curiosa sobre este Categoría 5 de la EPAC, empatado en cuanto a fechas (24 Junio) con AVA (1973).
No es muy extenso pero contiene estas animaciones:
- Ir:
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/100625_celia_ir_anim.gif)
- Vis:
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/100625_g11_vis_anim.gif)
- Ir brightness:
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/100624_g11_ir4_anim.gif)
Un saludo.
-
Qué belleza de imágenes, Parungo :o :o :o :o :o :o Absolutamente increíbles. Y esos datos, muy buenos.
Entonces, CELIA, sólo tiene un "homónimo" en cuanto a un categoría 5 en un mes de junio: AVA de 1973... :o Ósperas, aún faltaban casi 5 años para que naciera yo. Hemos tenido que esperar 37 años para ver otra cosa igual. :-X
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Impresionantes esas imágenes Parungo :o :o
Bueno, a CELIA se la está comiendo el aire seco:
(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1898/50806881.jpg)
La verdad es que este hilo no está teniendo demasiada participación... Lo cierto es que últimamente andamos bastante cojos con los seguimientos cicloneros. Es una pena que esto no atraiga a tanta gente como hace unos años, en que el foro se ponía super bonito de gente participando en estos seguimientos. Qué le vamos a hacer... Somos los que somos... :-\
Lo cierto es que ahora con ALEX tenemos para rato
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Os dejo un video resumen que acabo de hacer, espero que os guste. :D1
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VcGYmRqh-A[/youtube]
Buen seguimiento ;)