Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 18, 2015, 16:31:56 pm
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Apostaba poco por este sistema........ pero poco a poco ha logrado consolidarse...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMsoo8IVEAAS4b7.png:large)
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Ya la tenemos aquí, y los pronósticos de intensidad son bastante interesantes, llevándolo a alcanzar la categoría de huracán...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 181448
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015
The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired
enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a
well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt
and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level
outflow is good to the south and fair to the north.
The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving
west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in
this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in
as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more
westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast
period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little
faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower
GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.
The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-y7FCkiosEZA/VdNPy034j5I/AAAAAAAADDw/p7_UXNubg9s/w720-h480-no/td4.gif)
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Por cierto, cuando alcance la intensidad de tormenta tropical, recibirá el nombre de DANNY
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Hora local de Caracas 2:30pm
Se ha formado la DT04L en aguas tropicales del Atlántico ubicada a 3050 km al E de Porlamar, isla de Margarita. De interés para el Caribe:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/1_zpstutngfsr.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/1_zpstutngfsr.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/vis-animated_zpsv7ya1gdq.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/vis-animated_zpsv7ya1gdq.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000003_zpsbsaolwwh.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000003_zpsbsaolwwh.jpg.html)
Sin embargo la circulación de bajo nivel no es buena pero se estima fortalecimiento, por ende mejor organización:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000002_zpsmyk3ao5x.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000002_zpsmyk3ao5x.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 2:50pm
A actualizar titulo del tópico, habemus Danny ;) ;)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/x_zpstclawhxt.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/x_zpstclawhxt.jpg.html)
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Hecho!
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Hora local de Caracas 8:45pm
Datos 21UTC 4:30pm HLV
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...10.9 NORTE 37.5 OESTE
1595 MI...2565 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 280 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS
Tiene a favor la baja cizalladura. El Polvo del Sahara al NO va mas rápido que el ciclón, por lo que no interfiere:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000006_zpseftzlyxx.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000006_zpseftzlyxx.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000007_zpszsb9ghyc.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000007_zpszsb9ghyc.jpg.html)
La circulación va mejorando, y las estimaciones son agresivas en comparación al día de ayer, ingresaría al Caribe aproximadamente por Guadalupe como huracán, veremos:
Superficie
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000010_zps1b6dgg5w.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000010_zps1b6dgg5w.jpg.html)
Vorticidad 850hPa +156h
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000008_zpsjpxep0ax.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000008_zpsjpxep0ax.jpg.html)
MLSP +156h
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000009_zpsu2mrz3js.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000009_zpsu2mrz3js.jpg.html)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 10.9N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.2N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.6N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 12.0N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 12.5N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 13.4N 46.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 13.9N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 54.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
Así luce a la hora
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/1_zpsirx1dy9w.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/1_zpsirx1dy9w.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rbtop-animated_zpsbecnw8rn.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rbtop-animated_zpsbecnw8rn.gif.html)
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Puede llegar a Categoría 2 según GFS en 108 horas:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMvmhm_XAAAWHH2.png)
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Hora local de Caracas 12m
Pocos cambios en cuanto a intensidad, ha perdido la convección que desarrolló durante la noche y no ha regenerado nubosidad, lo que permite apreciar el vórtice de la tormenta:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zpsmib0labi.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zpsmib0labi.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000009_zpslq87xnt5.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000009_zpslq87xnt5.jpg.html)
Cizalladura y aparente aislamiento del polvo del sahara sugieren ciclogénesis convectiva cerrada, veremos como se comporta ésta tarde:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000011_zpssplcrmup.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000011_zpssplcrmup.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000010_zpsqy3izjxo.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000010_zpsqy3izjxo.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpskdl3ajbi.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpskdl3ajbi.jpg.html)
Adicionalmente trayectoria de ciclones tropicales similares en el pasado.
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000012_zpsfvdi68qn.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000012_zpsfvdi68qn.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:30pm
Pocos cambios en cuanto a estructura, información via ATCF de las 00Z
11.9ºN 42.3ºO
Pmin=1000mb
Vientos 85km/h
Esta ´formando convección central, veremos como se comporta durante las próximas horas.
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpsvjpacqgz.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpsvjpacqgz.gif.html)
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DANNY mantiene intensidad aunque parece estar mejorando su organización, ya que el microondas llegó a mostrar una estructura en forma de ojo durante la madrugada...
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 GMT 08/18/15 10.6N 36.5W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/18/15 10.9N 37.5W 40 1008 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/19/15 11.2N 38.8W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/19/15 11.3N 40.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/19/15 11.2N 41.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/19/15 11.5N 42.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/20/15 12.1N 42.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/20/15 12.2N 43.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 11 hHace 11 horas Ver traducción
On this recent microwave pass you can see #Danny still has a very good low level structure.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMzeEkwWwAQ5WNe.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 9am
Danny es casi un huracán CAT1, pese a su pequeño tamaño. Datos recientes 12Z
Datos recientes 7:30am
Pmin= 992mb
Vientos= 110km/h
En la visible sugiere la formación de un ojo, por lo que ya debe serlo:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zpsyx1cengr.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zpsyx1cengr.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zpsj8m75viv.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zpsj8m75viv.jpg.html)
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Otra imagen de sat un poco más reciente creo... y se intuye ya un ojo
(http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201504_sat.jpg)
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Recuerdo un caso de huracán atlántico muy pequeño de hace unos años......... A ver si lo busco, porque quizás estemos ante un récord de huracán pequeño.
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Las dimensiones de Danny son muy pequeñas... y aunque la info oficial le asigna 60 KT, bien podría decirse que es un huracán compacto... Veremos a ver si no es un récord... Yo ya he preguntado en twitter:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM26N5kWcAAn3Z_.png:large)
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El récord de ciclón más pequeño lo ostenta Marco de 2008, pero como tormenta tropical.................. ::)
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...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 201459
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Vamos los Danis "wenos" ahi ! tiene recorrido por delante, veremos que hace y como se comporta. Buen seguimiento Pedro !
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Hora local de Caracas 11:20am
El primer huracancito del Atlántico.
Sorprende su pequeño tamaño pero vigoroso vórtice.
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zpskvvcpzcf.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zpskvvcpzcf.jpg.html)
Desde la EEI, cortesía de @StationCDRKelly
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/d_zpsjjjanzor.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/d_zpsjjjanzor.jpg.html)
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...12.5 NORTE 44.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 1090 MI...1755 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 295 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARES...29.30 PULGADAS
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Hora local de Caracas 9:20pm
Es un paupérrimo HU CAT1, sin ojo para la presión y velocidad de los vientos, quizás esté perdiendo u oscilando en su intensidad:
Pmin: 990mb
Vientos: 130 km/h
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/1_zpskn7mriqi.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/1_zpskn7mriqi.jpg.html)
Quizá la poca expansión de la convección se deba a un poco de SAL desde el Sur, adicionalmente se desplaza hacia un angosto y débil corredor de cizalladura desde el SO, cruciales las próximas horas para su supervivencia:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000020_zps8rqu3wrv.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000020_zps8rqu3wrv.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000019_zpsjplg1bhd.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000019_zpsjplg1bhd.jpg.html)
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Pues la evolución durante la noche ha sido espectacular.... ahora mismo tiene una estructura convectiva que por su profundidad y simetría, me lleva a pensar en un major... :o :o :o :o :o
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-JufRuCsJ-IQ/VdbH-ALctYI/AAAAAAAADIQ/VtVHiHaG7CQ/w720-h480-no/dgdgbd.gif)
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Danny sigue sorprendiéndome... está sufriendo altibajos en su intensidad, como es normal en un huracán de este tamaño, pero pero anillo convectivo es muy frío y sólido!
El ojo mide menos de 10 km. es muy pequeño, aunque el más pequeño jamás registrado en un huracán es de 3,7 km. del monstruoso Wilma de 2005...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM7CimcXAAApFTP.png:large)
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La discusión del CNH es bastante conservadora bajo mi punto de vista, pero habrá que hacerles caso... tan solo le dan 75 KT de intensidad, cuando parece un major (>95KT) con ese anillo tan denso y frío...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 210837
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
Danny has strengthened a little overnight. The eye of the compact
hurricane has become more distinct recently and the cloud tops have
cooled in the eyewall. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were both T4.5 at 0600 UTC, and the initial wind speed has been
nudged upward to 75 kt accordingly. The eye of Danny passed about
75 n mi south of NOAA buoy 41041 a few hours ago and winds at that
location were only around 20 kt, indicative of the very small size
of the wind field of this hurricane.
The cyclone continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt.
The relatively slow forward speed of the system is due to a trough
over the western Atlantic, which has weakened the subtropical
ridge. This trough is expected to lift northward in a couple of
days, allowing the ridge to build westward and strengthen. The
change in the steering flow should cause Danny to turn westward and
speed up this weekend and early next week. The track guidance
remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies closest to the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The new forecast track is
just a tad to the north of the previous one at days 4 and 5, but is
otherwise just an update.
Danny is currently in a very low wind shear environment and over
warm water, and it is expected to remain in these favorable
conditions for about another 12-24 hours. Therefore, additional
strengthening is possible in the short term. Beyond that time,
however, the system is expected to move into an area of increased
southwesterly shear and drier air. These factors should induce a
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement
with the intensity model consensus IVCN. As mentioned in previous
discussions, the small size of the hurricane makes it susceptible to
sudden changes in intensity, which are difficult to predict.
A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around
Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data
will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of
the hurricane.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 13.7N 47.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 48.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.9N 50.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.5N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.7N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.8N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Otra imagen más...........
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/depresion-tropical-04l-atlantico-region-de-desarrollo-principal-agosto-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=29121;image)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM7SK4BWoAADy_t.png)
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85mph por ahora según veo en wunderground, y la presión ya ha bajado de 990hpa. Creo que mínimo llega a Cat. 2.
Recordemos que ayer por la mañana no le daban ni posibilidad de llegar a huracán y mirad como si llegó. Pienso que dada su estructura tan pequeña y consolidada puede sortear casi todos los inconvenientes sin problema (sobre todo el tema del aire sahariano).
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Por imágenes guapas que no sea............................. :o :o :o :o :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM7s1sfWEAAr8uG.png:large)
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Da la impresión de que el ojo de Danny está creciendo... esto se observa tanto en la imagen VIS que adjunto más abajo, como en la animación de imágenes de falso coloreado de T de topes nubosos...
A parte, diría que manteniendo intensidad o algo más fuerte...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM782CYWcAAxH2s.png:large)
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...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
Y por 6 KT no pasa a ser un categoría 3...
Seguramente estemos en su momento álgido, ya que dentro de poco las condiciones se tornarán más hostiles...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 211438
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
Danny has continued to strengthen during the past several hours.
The small eye has become better defined, and it is now embedded in
a circular central dense overcast. In addition, the ragged outer
banding has increased in coverage and now surrounds the central
convection. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It
is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests
that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed
the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the
intensification and the increase in outer banding.
The initial motion is 290/9. The subtropical ridge north of Danny
remains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the
western Atlantic. This trough is expected to lift northward in a
couple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and
strengthen. This evolution should cause Danny to turn more
westward with some increase in forward speed. The track guidance
is in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be
near the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico in
about 96 hours, and near Hispaniola in about 120 hours. The new
forecast track, which is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF
models, lies close to the previous forecast through 96 hours and a
little to the north of the previous forecast at 120 hours.
Danny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.
However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level
southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeastern
Caribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96
hours. This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the
forecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane
strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands. The new intensity
forecast is a little stronger than the intensity consensus through
96 hours. After that, it is weaker than most of the guidance due
to the expected interaction with land.
A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around
Danny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon. These data
will provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of
the hurricane.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 14.0N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.5N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.1N 51.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.0N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Lo comentaba hace unas horas... y lo que comentaba parece que ahora sale a la luz gracias al RECON del avión cazahuracanes...
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp
Recon is finding 111 kt winds a few thousand feet up. This would support CAT 3 intensity. #Danny defying all odds.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM8kDHcWIAEdEfh.png:large)
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 13 minHace 13 minutos Ver traducción
Recon is finding pressure down near 968mb. Quite a bit lower than NHC’s estimate. Wow. #Danny
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Otra vista.......... desde el satélite TERRA (MODIS):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM8nyGlWwAAuMWL.png:large)
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Me lo estoy pasando bomba con este huracán... vale por todos los que no ha habido por ser una temporada rácana debido al Niño del Pacífico.................
Brian McNoldy
What an incredible era we're in... not only can we monitor hurricane reconnaissance aircraft position and wind measurements in realtime, now we can see the lower fuselage radar images in near realtime! Here are a couple screenshots I took to show some examples... — en Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.
(https://scontent-mad1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11885340_962977610426144_7153734193617376214_n.jpg?oh=defd3ae766f36b2144bc88b84f540811&oe=56763B31)
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TOMA YA!
Hurricane DANNY Update Statement
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive UPDATE
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
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Hora local de Caracas 3pm
Cazahuracán confirma que Danny alcanza la CAT3:
2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 21
Location: 14.3°N 48.6°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/5_zpsmvudlmlr.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/5_zpsmvudlmlr.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/4_zpstlxfjq7y.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/4_zpstlxfjq7y.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/3_zpskyqwc8no.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/3_zpskyqwc8no.jpg.html)
Sin embargo no debería duran mucho en esa categoría, está ingresando a un canal de débil cizalladura, por lo que no se debería esperar mas fortalecimiento:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/6_zpsdgpkdlsu.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/6_zpsdgpkdlsu.jpg.html)
Pedro y tu no estabás exceptico ??? ??? ;D ;D
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De alucine......! ;D Pero yo no soy el único, y sin ser meteorólogo.............. :P ;)
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Aqui puede verse como ha comenzado esa hostilidad de la que habla Eric ::) ::) ::)
(http://i62.tinypic.com/9fmwpf.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:40pm
Comienza a perder fuerza, baja a CAT2.
Datos recientes vía ATCF:
Pmin= 977mb
Vientos sostenidos 176 km/h
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/rbtop0_zpsnuaqmd90.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/rbtop0_zpsnuaqmd90.gif.html)
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Desde la exhibición de ayer, Danny poco a poco ha ido perdiendo fuelle... y se prevé que así siga en los próximos días fruto de la cizalladura y el aire seco...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-W-i3utVbxWI/VdicRx_jKLI/AAAAAAAADJE/BexLDIHXbF8/w720-h480-no/vxfvbfxv.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 11:45am
Sigue debilitándose, baja a CAT1
11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 15.4°N 52.0°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000010_zpsfra4sxp4.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000010_zpsfra4sxp4.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/3_zpsk3evyjwx.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/3_zpsk3evyjwx.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 6:30pm
Danny apenas sosteniéndose como tormenta tropical, en las últimas horas despedazada por la cizalladura:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...15.6 NORTE 59.0 ESTE
CERCA DE 165 MI...275 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE GUADALUPE
CERCA DE 210 MI...340 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE ANTIGUA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 260 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARES...29.71 PULGADAS
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000001_zpshhfaxn8h.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000001_zpshhfaxn8h.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/anim_sat_cyclone_zpsikssjjiz.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/anim_sat_cyclone_zpsikssjjiz.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 10pm
Vórtice de Danny se deja ver bajo el radar de Guadalupe:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000006_9.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000006_9.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 5pm
Danny degradada a vaguada en niveles bajos. Último aviso por parte del CNH:
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...16.0 NORTE 62.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 45 MI...70 KM AL OESTE SUROESTE DE GUADALUPE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 275 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARES...29.83 PULGADAS
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/2_11.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/2_11.jpg.html)