-
Otra depresión en el EPAC :o :o :o
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230231
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SHEAR. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT IN THE AREA SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR A MODEST
STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WELL OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 11.0N 93.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 11.5N 94.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 12.0N 96.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 12.8N 97.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 99.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 15.0N 102.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 40 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
-
Pues ahi que estar muy atentos a este nuevo sistema, que aunque todavia no es seguro, puede ser realidad en las proximas horas ;)
Esto esta que arde :o :o
Ya lo dije yo. soy un hacha :P. Pues de momento no parece que vaya a ser muy potente. las previsiones solo le dan hasta TT, de momento. Creo que mas para adelante, las previsiones sean de Huracan :D1 :D1
-
Segundo boletín, y ya es tormenta tropical 8)
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230849
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION
CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5
FROM TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB. ASCAT DATA...WHICH IS KNOWN TO HAVE A
LOW BIAS...SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AT 0306 UTC. SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DARBY.
THE ASCAT PASS HELPED IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT DARBY IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO SHOULD
STEER DARBY GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. IN FACT...SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
DARBY COULD STOP ALTOGETHER AND ATTAIN SOME EASTWARD MOTION WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COUNTER TO THAT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH MAINTAIN
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
UNCERTAINTY SUPPORTS THE NEGLIGIBLE MOTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BY DAY 5.
THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY SHOULD
ABATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...GIVING THE SYSTEM A CHANCE TO
INTENSIFY. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS STILL MIGHT BE
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 1 IN
4 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHATEVER
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER DAY 3 IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IF DARBY BEGINS TO ATTAIN
AN EASTERLY MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 11.5N 94.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 11.9N 95.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 12.4N 96.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 12.8N 98.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 13.0N 99.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 101.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
-
Estaba cantado que al final seria un Huracan 8)
(http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/7532/4444z.gif)
-
DARBY se mantiene como Tormenta Tropical de momento, a la espera de pasar a Huracán categoría 1
TORMENTA TROPICAL DARBY
55kts-995mb
(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/2597/201006232145goes13vis1k.jpg)
Seguiremos vigilándolo... 8) ::)
-
Situación Actual
Viento sostenidos: 61 kt (113 km/h)
Rachas máximas: 74 kt (137 km/h)
Presión: 994 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste-Nororeste a 10 kt (18 km/h)
Vamos!! Le falta un pelin para ser Huracán Categoría 1 :D1
(http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/2846/75415916.jpg)
-
Yo la verdad es que viendo el sat, para mi tiene peor aspecto que anoche
TORMENTA TROPICAL DARBY
60kts-994mb
(http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/8251/ir4.jpg)
Al borde de la categoría 1 de huracán
Veremos como sigue evolucionando... ::)
-
Cat.1 según ATCF
65kt
(http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3462/avnlz.jpg)
A ver que dicen en el parte, además, parece el ultimo ''vagón'' del tren tropical...
:D1
-
Huracán según el último parte, y veo un INVEST detrás, si no lo es ya... El EPAC está que hierve! :o :o :o
-
(http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/2109/2427track.jpg)
-
Se nota que el MJO está por esa parte del mundo.
(http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3283/201006241900goes11visir.jpg)
-
Darby ya es Huracán categoria 2, con 90 kt.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250852
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE
HOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR
OF HIGHER SSTS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS
DARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFOR. THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES
INDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS
STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT
INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET
OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE
STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/250852.shtml?
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 06/23/10 11.0N 93.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 06/23/10 11.5N 94.0W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/23/10 11.8N 94.8W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/23/10 12.0N 96.1W 65 995 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 06/24/10 12.3N 97.0W 65 995 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 06/24/10 12.6N 98.0W 70 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/24/10 12.8N 98.7W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/24/10 12.9N 99.3W 80 980 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/25/10 13.2N 100.0W 90 978 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/25/10 13.4N 100.7W 105 967 Category 2 Hurricane
-
DARBY es huracán categoría 2
CICLÓN TROPICAL DARBY CATEGORÍA 2
90kts-967mb
(http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/2192/35744756.jpg)
-
05E DARBY 100625 1200 13.5N 100.9W EPAC 95 966
05E DARBY 100625 0600 13.2N 100.4W EPAC 90 967
05E DARBY 100625 0000 13.1N 99.7W EPAC 80 978
05E DARBY 100624 1800 12.8N 99.0W EPAC 70 980
(http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/5440/25jo.jpg)
-
(http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/8452/25cj.jpg)
-
DARBY sube a cateogría 3
CICLÓN TROPICAL DARBY CATEGORÍA 3
100kts-966mb
(http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/4854/201006251815goes13vis1k.jpg)
-
Un anillo bastante compacto, pero no perfecto
(http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/357/201006251551trmmtmi85h0.jpg)
-
Iba a comentar la posibilidad de un segundo huracán, pero ya veo que se me han adelantado. Esta es una imagen de los dos juntitos.
(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/677/huracn.jpg)
-
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251431
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE
IN A DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
DARBY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE
STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF DARBY...BUT MOST OF THEM WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 13.9N 102.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 13.9N 103.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 13.5N 104.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 13.8N 104.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
DARBY, pequeño, pero matón 8)
(http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/4216/2010ep051kmsrvis2010062.gif)
-
Veremos si DARBY no da sorpresasm porque lleva un progreso fantástico, y desde el satélite se ve impresionante :o :o :o Le auguro el alcance de categoría 4...
(http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/4216/2010ep051kmsrvis2010062.gif)
Crédito: RAMMB / CIRA
-
Muy interesante lo comentado en la última discusión del CNH:
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 252044
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
DARBY REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING A DISTINCT EYE AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC WERE
T5.5...102 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FUTURE STRENGTHENING. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND CAUSE DARBY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/5. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DARBY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE WILDLY DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE HWRF CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION OF DARBY AND
THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION. MOST OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT IS CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WHETHER THE MUCH-SMALLER DARBY GETS
CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO. IT IS BEST TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
DARBY IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE FORMATION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971...ECLIPSING OF
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF HURRICANE DANIEL ON JUNE 30 1978.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 13.6N 101.5W 105 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 13.7N 102.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 103.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 104.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 14.0N 103.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 14.3N 102.7W 55 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
-
Sábado 26
- Huracán “Darby” se habrá debilitado a categoría I en la escala de Saffir-Simpson, presentará vientos máximos sostenidos de 150 km/h y rachas de 185 km/h, se encontrará cerca de 13.9°N y 103.2°W, a 450 km al Sur-Suroeste de Ixtapa Zihuatanejo, Gro., originará tiempo inestable en el Sur y Occidente de México, donde continuarán presentándose lluvias, además de vientos fuertes y oleaje elevado en la zona costera.
Domingo 27
- Huracán “Darby” aún se apreciará con categoría I en la escala de Saffir-Simpson, con vientos de 150 km/h y rachas de 185 km/h, su centro de localizará cerca de 13.5°N y 104.0°W, a 525 km al Sur-Suroeste de Lázaro Cárdenas, Mich., la circulación del ciclón y sus bandas externas mantendrán el potencial de lluvias en Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco.
Lunes 28
- Huracán “Darby” categoría I, presentará lento desplazamiento hacia el Norte, vientos de 130 km/h y rachas de 155 km/h, se encontrará cerca de la costa de Michoacán, en 13.8°N y 104.0°W, a 495 km al Sur-Suroeste de Lázaro Cárdenas, Mich., situación que mantendrá el potencial de lluvias moderadas a fuertes en el Sur y Occidente del Territorio Nacional.
Martes 29
- Posiblemente durante este día el “Darby” se debilite a tormenta tropical con vientos de 130 km/h y rachas de 155 km/h, sin embargo se acercará más a la costa de Michoacán y Guerrero, se encontrará en 14.0°N y 103.3°W, a 430 km al Sur-Suroeste de Ixtapa Zihuatanejo, Gro., y a 445 km al Sur de Lázaro Cárdenas, Mich., manteniendo el potencial de lluvias localmente fuertes en los estados del Occidente y Sur del país.
-
Sencillamente increíbles los dos ciclones del EPAC. En particular con DARBY, los meteorólogos del CNH se hacen eco de lo increíblemente pequeño que es este... Mirad:
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 260850
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
DARBY IS AN INCREDIBLY SMALL HURRICANE. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0345
UTC INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY
FARTHER THAN ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE HAD BEEN
MAINTAINING A SMALL 10-N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH SUPPORTED 0600 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME
OBSCURED...AND THE MOST RECENT ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS T5.1.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 95 KT. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER DARBY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE RAPID FROM 72-120 HOURS AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO...CREATING FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
DARBY HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/5. THE STEERING CURRENTS
AROUND THE HURRICANE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND DARBY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF NEWLY-NAMED TROPICAL
STORM ALEX IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS STILL RATHER
DIVERGENT AND DARBY COULD DRIFT OR MEANDER IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND BRINGS
DARBY TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 3 DAYS...BUT THIS SOLUTION IS
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 13.5N 102.7W 95 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 104.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 13.6N 104.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 104.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 14.3N 103.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 14.7N 102.8W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 15.0N 102.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG