Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Julio 11, 2015, 17:20:19 pm
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Acaba de formarse la depresión tropical 5, muy cerca de la costa de México. GFS es bastante agresivo en pronósticos, manteniendo al ciclón alejado de la costa y fortaleciéndolo progresivamente sin tocar Baja California Sur.
Va a disp??arse el nombre de Dolores con el sistema 97E ...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJpJO49WUAAN5OZ.png:large)
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Recién salido del horno, GFS es muy agresivo convirtiendo a DOLORES en un huracán mayor en los próximos días...
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-dolores-05e-pacifico-noreste-julio-2015/?action=dlattach;attach=28927;image)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-J7HKXF1YgvU/VaIp9i0jqHI/AAAAAAAAC0I/0J5yYWk84bY/w720-h480-no/dolores.gif)
[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]
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Sube a huracán............................... según lo previsto.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132034
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015
Dolores is strengthening. Visible satellite imagery shows the
inner core of the cyclone becoming better organized, and a ragged
eye has become evident during the past few hours. There is also
a long curved band wrapping entirely around the circulation. The
upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west, likely
the result of a persistent west-northwesterly flow associated with
a trough to the northwest. A Dvorak classification of T4.0 from
SAB and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.5 are used to raise the initial
intensity to 65 kt.
Recent fixes suggest that Dolores' forward speed has decreased
considerably since this morning, and the initial motion estimate is
295/08. Dolores is about to reach the western edge of a subtropical
ridge over the south-central United States, which should result in
continued west-northwestward motion but at an even slower forward
speed. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild some in 48 to
72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFS are still at odds on exactly how
much. These models and the remaining model suite have track
solutions that are significantly divergent late in the period,
and the official track forecast has been adjusted close to the
multi-model consensus, which is nearly midway between the ECWMF and
GFS. The track forecast has also been slowed down throughout the
forecast period, following the trends of the latest guidance.
Nearly optimal thermodynamic parameters such as sea surface
temperatures of 29-30 deg C and high tropospheric moisture in the
near-storm environment should promote further strengthening. Only
some west-northwesterly shear could slow the rate of intensification
during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Dolores seems
poised to reach major hurricane strength and could potentially
intensify more than forecast as a result of the very conducive
environmental factors. A gradual spin-down of the vortex is
forecast after 72 hours once the cyclone reaches cooler waters
and a drier and more stable atmosphere. The statistical guidance
has responded to the current intensification and shows Dolores
reaching a peak intensity of around 105 kt in 48-72 hours, and the
official forecast follows suit. The official forecast continues to
be above the multi-model intensity consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJ0nsbyUMAAmnBf.jpg:large)
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Pues ya tenemos otro categoría 4 en el EPAC... y muy cerca de Isla Socorro, México.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJ9dPK3WEAAGfP3.jpg:large)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
...DOLORES RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150839
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional
satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold
cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the
eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly
over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the
initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should
peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a
maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the
SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down
through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression
by day 5.
The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores
continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly
mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in
agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48
and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster
west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast
to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast
beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and
TVCE consensus models.
The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT
overpasses.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Después del salto, Dolores ha detenido su inensificación. No obstante, su apariencia es impresionante y con un anillo convectivo bien consolidado, con una cierta falta de simetría.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJ-ZEOoWsAEmBjU.png:large)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CJ85b93WgAAm4DB.mp4)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CJ-59siWIAAJkkC.mp4)
"@NWSOPC Visible satellite across the E Pacific reveals Tropical Storm Enrique, Hurricane Dolores and Von Karman vortices"