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   SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, DB, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712,   , BEST,   0, 185N,  855W,  25, 1003, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 16, 2010092718,   , BEST,   0, 187N,  847W,  25, 1003, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  300,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800,   , BEST,   0, 190N,  840W,  25, 1003, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  300,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806,   , BEST,   0, 194N,  834W,  30, 1003, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  240,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812,   , BEST,   0, 202N,  828W,  30, 1001, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  360, 180,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    SIXTEEN, D,

Interesante lo que indica el blog de Jeff Masters:

" La INVEST96L está interactuando con la ZCIT del pacífico oriental, el cual le está suministrando la humedad y de allí su extendo tamaño y la actividad concentrada del lado este del sistema, típico de tormentas monzónicas que se desarrollan en el Golfo de Bengala..."

Fuente: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/

The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM
KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR
DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING
FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE
BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN  UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 23.3N  81.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 25.2N  80.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 28.9N  79.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 33.8N  78.6W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 40.0N  77.3W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART