000
WTNT41 KNHC 141451
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improve
since the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convection
surrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200
UTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrus
from a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTC
Windsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a
15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are a
consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values
have been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to the
eye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is only
being increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourth
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season.

Edouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to the
formation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about
305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude is
expected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by a
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strong
mid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S.
east coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught up
into the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the
east-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on this
developing steering pattern, and the official forecast closely
follows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA.

Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a
very favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all
of the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the
cyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should
not continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane
over the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be the
dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the only
reason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at this
time. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTs
and encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which is
expected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard is
forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the system
becomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The
official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous
forecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peak
intensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincide
with the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in the
lowest shear conditions.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a research
mission into Edouard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 24.7N  50.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 25.8N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 27.1N  54.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 28.5N  56.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 30.1N  56.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 34.5N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 39.4N  47.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 41.7N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has
strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight.  A dropsonde
released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at
0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the
corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a
major hurricane.  This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  On the other hand, low-level wind data from the
dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an
intensity estimate between 75-80 kt.  As a compromise between the
data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

Environmental conditions should support some additional
intensification during the next couple of days.  Modest
southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but
the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours.  In addition, the
hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3
days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching
major hurricane status between 24-48 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening
trend is expected by day 3.  Edouard is forecast to be over 22C
water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose
its deep convection and become post-tropical.  At this point, it
appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones
over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the
forecast period.

The initial motion remains 305/13 kt.  Edouard is expected to turn
northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and
then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various
models.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model
consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 26.9N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 27.9N  55.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 34.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 39.1N  48.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 41.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Ber

000
WTNT41 KNHC 151437
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger
and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly
symmetric inner-core convective pattern.  Despite the improved
structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so
the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt.  Three NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and
will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and
structure.

Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13
kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is
expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to
its north shifts eastward and weakens.  By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast.  A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is
predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is
steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the
northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left
of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA
guidance.

Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours
while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions.  Beyond that
time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear
should cause the system to weaken steadily.  Post-tropical
transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be
over sea surface temperature below 23 C.  The post-tropical phase of
the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 27.3N  55.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 35.4N  54.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 40.0N  45.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 40.5N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 5 h
Inside the eye of #Edouard from #NOAA43 (NOAA P3) 9/14/14 Photo: Mr. J. Parrish