000WTNT41 KNHC 141451TCDAT1HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620141100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014Edouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improvesince the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convectionsurrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200UTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrusfrom a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTCWindsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are aconsensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT valueshave been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to theeye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is onlybeing increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourthhurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season.Edouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to theformation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude isexpected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by aturn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cycloneis expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strongmid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S.east coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught upinto the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward theeast-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on thisdeveloping steering pattern, and the official forecast closelyfollows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA.Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, avery favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by allof the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of thecyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard shouldnot continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricaneover the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be thedry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the onlyreason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at thistime. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTsand encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which isexpected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard isforecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the systembecomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. Theofficial intensity forecast follows the trend of the previousforecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peakintensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincidewith the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in thelowest shear conditions.A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a researchmission into Edouard.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/1500Z 24.7N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W 75 KT 85 MPH120H 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Stewart
000WTNT41 KNHC 142032TCDAT1HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014Edouard has become better organized this afternoon. The eye of thehurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, anddeep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensityand coverage during the past few hours. NOAA hurricane huntersinvestigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. These data andthe consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt. Additionalstrengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while thehurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry airthat is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when thecyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur inabout 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensityforecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity inabout two days followed by a steady decline after that.The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered bya subtropical ridge centered to its north. This ridge is expectedto weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard togradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days. Bymid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitudezonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east. TheNHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next fewdays, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previousadvisory at 96 and 120 h.The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes intoand around the circulation of Edouard. These data will be useful inanalyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and shouldhelp the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/2100Z 25.4N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 29.3N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 31.2N 56.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 40.1N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH120H 19/1800Z 41.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Cangialosi
000WTNT41 KNHC 150255TCDAT1HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620141100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization thisevening. Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, ithas recently disappeared. Convective cloud top temperatures in thecentral dense overcast have also warmed during the past severalhours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping intoportions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensityestimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, sothe initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducivefor intensification during the next day or two. While traversingwarm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmentalair wrapping around the circulation. After achieving a peakintensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likelyto commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surfacetemperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear anddramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough movingacross Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning ofextratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clearcut on a completion of this process by day 5. The intensityforecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecastperiod.The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue ona northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge untilthe ridge retreats eastward in a day or so. This change in thesteering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharplynorthward in about 36 hours. The hurricane should then be capturedby a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastwardin 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forwardspeed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to theleft this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved inthat direction. The new track forecast, however, lies on the farright side of the guidance envelope.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/0300Z 26.2N 53.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 32.4N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 37.4N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 41.2N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL120H 20/0000Z 41.2N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL$$Forecaster Kimberlain
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard hasstrengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight. A dropsondereleased in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, thecorresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for amajor hurricane. This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from theUW-CIMSS ADT. On the other hand, low-level wind data from thedropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield anintensity estimate between 75-80 kt. As a compromise between thedata, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.Environmental conditions should support some additionalintensification during the next couple of days. Modestsoutheasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, butthe shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours. In addition, thehurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reachingmajor hurricane status between 24-48 hours. After that time, thecyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakeningtrend is expected by day 3. Edouard is forecast to be over 22Cwater by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to loseits deep convection and become post-tropical. At this point, itappears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zonesover the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during theforecast period.The initial motion remains 305/13 kt. Edouard is expected to turnnorthward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east andthen northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in themid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement onthis scenario, and there is very little spread among the variousmodels. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than theprevious one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-modelconsensus TVCA.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/0900Z 26.9N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL120H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL$$Forecaster Ber
000WTNT41 KNHC 151437TCDAT1HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0620141100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become largerand more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairlysymmetric inner-core convective pattern. Despite the improvedstructure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier sothe initial wind speed is held at 90 kt. Three NOAA hurricanehunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard andwill provide excellent data to help assess its intensity andstructure.Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north isexpected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge toits north shifts eastward and weakens. By late Tuesday andWednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitudewesterlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast. Adecrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast ispredicted by the end of the forecast period when the system issteered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over thenortheast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the leftof the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCAguidance.Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hourswhile the hurricane remains in favorable conditions. Beyond thattime, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shearshould cause the system to weaken steadily. Post-tropicaltransition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to beover sea surface temperature below 23 C. The post-tropical phase ofthe track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance fromNOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/1500Z 27.3N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL120H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL$$Forecaster Cangialosi
NOAAHurricaneHunters @NOAA_HurrHunter 5 hInside the eye of #Edouard from #NOAA43 (NOAA P3) 9/14/14 Photo: Mr. J. Parrish