000
WTNT41 KNHC 182036
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery
indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have
started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with
the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east
of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based
mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the
northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located
along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on
the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a
turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new
NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track,
and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter
increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The
combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the
rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical
cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to
show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts
with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory
and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 39.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
WTNT41 KNHC 191458
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Edouard is weakening rapidly.  Strong northwesterly shear has
caused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple
during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any
deep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard
will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend
of Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is
lowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind
vectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat
higher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the
circulation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the
next couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly
shear and its passage over cold water.  Extratropical transition is
indicated by the global models in about 48 hours.  The intensity
forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows
remnant low status sooner.  Dissipation is expected in about 3 days.

Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours,
and the initial motion estimate is 110/03.  The cyclone is expected
to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next
day or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to
the south.  A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after
that time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the
west side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic.
The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only
shifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 39.5N  38.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 39.6N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 39.5N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  21/0000Z 38.9N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z 33.0N  30.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman