Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 11, 2014, 10:18:58 am
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Abrimos este hilo por si podemos iniciar seguimiento sobre la baja presión que parece dará lugar a Edouard... en su viaje hacia el Atlántico Central y, quizás, cerca de Azores...
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-TbXTUM6JVLM/VBFahrVwaDI/AAAAAAAABRM/D3X9UKZp6hg/w565-h441-no/two_atl_5d0.png)
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Aspecto francamente bueno el que presenta al amanecer... Subirá a nivel rojo muy pronto.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxP4_KZCMAA4Z0u.jpg:large)
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Habemus DT y con perspectivas de huracán 8)
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A ver que rumbo toma y que posibilidades tiene de llegar mas allá de huracan 1.
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Hora local de Caracas 2:40pm
Se ha formado la DT-06L en aguas tropicales del Atlántico:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zps8ac2cc10.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zps8ac2cc10.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/b_zps64ea4a6a.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/b_zps64ea4a6a.jpg.html)
Modelos no sugieren amenaza para el Caribe ni zona continental de América:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_000006_zps08233c74.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_000006_zps08233c74.jpg.html)
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Bien, bien................... evil
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 112051
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM EDT JUEVES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014
...DEPRESION MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO
TROPICAL...
RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...17.0 NORTE 38.2 OESTE
CERCA DE...940 MILLAS...1515 KM OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 310 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARES...29.71 PULGADAS
000
WTNT41 KNHC 112041
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014
Tropical Depression Six is slowly becoming better organized, with
increasing convective banding in the northwestern semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 30 kt
respectively, and a recent CIRA AMSU estimate was 32 kt. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in the
northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.
The initial motion is 310/13. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the
cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track
guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between
the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. the
guidance has come into somewhat better agreement that the northward
turn should occur between 49W-55W, as the Canadian model has
shifted westward since its previous run. The official forecast is
an update of the previous package, and it lies near the center of
the guidance envelope.
The depression remains in an environment of light vertical wind
shear. The large-scale models continue to forecast some increase in
southerly shear after 24 hours, although less shear is forecast than
seen for the previous advisory. The intensity guidance responds to
this, and to increasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track, by showing more intensification than previously, especially
after 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from
72-120 hours in best agreement with the intensity consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 19.0N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 20.1N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 21.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 30.5N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-RFzt9MpMxvQ/VBIS6aa0DOI/AAAAAAAABR8/-adWNMHLdaM/w720-h480-no/dt06l.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:20pm
Se forma Edouard en el Atlántico:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/c_zpsaf22a6d5.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/c_zpsaf22a6d5.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/d_zps3943b837.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/d_zps3943b837.jpg.html)
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Ya tenemos a Edouard 😎
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
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Edouard no lo va a tener fácil para desarrollarse, como suele ocurrir con los ciclones que se alejan de la RDP hacia aguas centrales todavía subtropical del Atlántico.
Está y estará encontrando cizalladura y aire seco en su camino. Aún así, los modelos contemplan intensificación gradual al estar atravesando una zona de aguas anormalmente cálidas...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 120841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014
Edouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as
the center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection. The
current intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the
cyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept
at 35 kt. While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer
waters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually
intensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer
shear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by
the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry
conditions just to the southwest of Edouard. The official intensity
forecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical
models and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the
prediction from the previous advisory.
Microwave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites
assisted substantially in determining the initial position and
current motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than
estimated earlier. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward
at a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn
toward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves
around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through
a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is based upon
the tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly
west of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly
initial position.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 17.6N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.6N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 19.7N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 20.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 24.8N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Ya amanece en la zona, y la verdad es que se le ve muy sano! :D1
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxUrfsKIAAE7cqH.png:large)
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De la animación de IR + RGB, parece que tras trazar un rumbo NW, ahora está virando al WNW, tal como recoge el CNH en su último análisis...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-ed2D2rCBQmo/VBLEUmbJOXI/AAAAAAAABSo/b9-VrhWBZEw/w720-h480-no/vb%2Bvb.gif)
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GFS, erre que erre... intensifica mucho a Edouard y le augura pronto recurve, acercándolo a Azores...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxU01auIQAAQcfd.png:large)
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Un avión de investigación de la NASA, el RQ-4 Global Hawk (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_RQ-4_Global_Hawk), dentro de la misión GRIP (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/1295-el-15-de-agosto-arranca-la-misirip-de-la-nasa-el-15-de-agosto-arranca-la-misirip-de-la-nasa), está sembrando a Edouard con radiosondas cuyos datos están siendo ingeridos por modelos meteorológicos para afinar previsiones de intensidad y trayectoria 8) Sumamente interesante.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 121433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014
The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data
suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection.
Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective
numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity
is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass.
The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level
outflow has improved. Most of the global models as well as SHIPS
suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days.
In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously
warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated
in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity
consensus model ICON.
The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered
by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to
4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top
of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06
to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing
the confidence in the track forecast.
The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes
near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by
global models to help with the initialization.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 18.5N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 19.2N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 23.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Por otro lado, la convección se está deteriorando mucho a lo largo de su nuevo rumbo WNW... ¿Aire seco? ::)
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-j_13C1dAOUE/VBMQ-ZrADHI/AAAAAAAABTU/7WA9yzZpcJo/w720-h480-no/ugjuy.gif)
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Sigue intensificándose y de momento está lidiando muy bien con el aire seco que tiene en abundancia al oeste.
(http://img.tapatalk.com/d/14/09/13/8yra8ara.jpg)
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 130847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014
Edouard is gradually intensifying as a prominent curved band winds
most of the way around the tropical storm. However, the convective
cloud tops are warming and the central dense overcast is a bit
skeletal. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the
CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased and all indicate
maximum winds of around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity.
Edouard is still being affected by 15-20 kt of vertical shear,
primarily being induced the southwesterly flow around a very large
tropical upper-tropospheric trough to its west. As Edouard moves
poleward of the trough axis within the next day or so, the shear
will diminish. As the waters the system will traverse are a quite
warm 29C, only the somewhat dry atmosphere will not be conducive for
a more rapid intensification. Edouard is expected to become a
hurricane in a couple of days. After recurvature in three to four
days, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which
should allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 5. The
NHC wind speed forecast is nearly the same as that in the previous
advisory and is based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical model and
the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models.
A GCOM/AMSR2 microwave pass helped to locate the center of Edouard
and also indicated that the system was tilted northward with height
because of the vertical shear. Edouard is moving toward the west-
northwest around 13 kt, under the influence of a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic. In about 3 to 4 days, the cyclone will
respond to a break in the ridge by recurving and then accelerating
toward the northeast. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through the whole forecast period. The NHC track forecast is based
upon the TVCA multi-model ensemble and is just to the east of the
previous track prediction through 48 hours and just west thereafter.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 20.7N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 21.7N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 23.1N 49.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 24.7N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 26.1N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 33.5N 56.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Landsea
Lo cierto es que el loop de imágenes IR + RGB muestran un calentamiento de los topes nubosos, que puede suponer un nuevo ciclo de debilitamiento a causa del aire seco que lo circunda.
Ya dijimos ayer que no lo tendría fácil...
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-rss8yXR_TJM/VBQdOXVwWjI/AAAAAAAABUA/MYN3IgXCBLM/w720-h480-no/fghfg.gif)
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Bueno, y GFS erre que erre con llevárselo a Azores, debilitado, tras ser huracán...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxaDWe4IYAEez8k.png:large)
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Anomalías positivas de SST en las aguas subtropicales del Atlántico Norte...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxaEaAACYAAGfJH.png:large)
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El europeo IFS se suma a la fiesta...
MeteoBadajoz @MeteoBadajoz 3 min
Muy atentos al futuro huracán #Edouard, porque podría acabar muy cerca de Azores! Veremos hasta dónde acaba llegando:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxaIckqCEAAeyif.png:large)
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Interesante esa apuesta de los modelos por llevarlo a las Azores. Despues, no se sabe donde podra llegar... evil
Mientras tanto, como comenta Pedro, le cuesta seguir fortaleciendose debido a ese aire seco que le esta afectando. La conveccion va a menos en su seno, ademas que dicha conveccion esta mayormente desplazada a su flanco norte-noreste ;)
(http://imageshack.com/a/img746/2172/dOgVH4.gif)
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Esa disipación de la convección que hemos observado también ha sido tenida en cuenta por el preditor Avila. No obstante, si te das cuenta, está volviendo a resurgir. Creo que en un ambiente con aire seco, esto es frecuente; me refiero a los ciclos de revitalización y debilitamiento de la convección. Al final, creo que resultará en un petardazo definitivo, y si la cizalladura baja lo suficiente, con esas aguas anormalmente cálidas, quizás asistamos a alguna sorpresa en cuanto a que, como huracán, alcance un pico más intenso de lo esperado inicialmente.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 131438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014
Although Edouard has lost most of the deep convection, it has a
vigorous low-level circulation. Dvorak t-numbers still support an
initial intensity of 45 kt. There are some arc clouds currently
moving away from the main circulation suggesting that no important
changes in intensity are expected during the next few hours.
However, the shear is decreasing and this is already reflected in
the current better defined upper-level outflow. The low shear, in
combination with the pool of anomalous warm waters ahead of Edouard,
should result in strengthening, and the cyclone should become a
hurricane on Sunday or early Monday. The NHC forecast follows the
guidance and is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
305 degrees at 11 kt. The steering environment has not changed, with
the cyclone's motion being controlled by the subtropical ridge.
This pattern will keep Edouard on the same general track for the
next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken
and move east allowing Edouard to turn north, and then recurve
into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close
to the multi-model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in
turning the cyclone northward over the Central Atlantic for the past
several model cycles.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 22.7N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 25.7N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 27.1N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 40.0N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Hora local de Caracas 12:45pm
Me parece que el shear es lo que lo está afectando ligeramente, desde el SO:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zps00e58896.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zps00e58896.gif.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_000005_zpsd3c0bfd9.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_000005_zpsd3c0bfd9.jpg.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.7 NORTE 46.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 1080 MILLAS...1735 KM ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO
DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...996 MILIBARES...29.42 PULGADAS
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Van mejorando las perspectivas del CNH sobre Edouard, pero el patrón de ciclos intensificación-debilitamiento de la convección tiene continuidad, y parece verse desmejorado en las últimas horas...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 140239
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014
The compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more
organized during the evening. A low- to mid-level eye-like feature
has intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206
GMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced
slightly to the south of the mid-level center. The intensity has
been increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from
TAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind
vectors of 49-51 kt.
Upper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser
degree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear.
Intensification is expected due to a more conducive environment,
with the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air,
primarily to the south and east of Edouard. The intensity guidance,
particularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this
cycle. The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the
first 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the
consensus aid IVCN. By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while
extratropical transition occurs.
Edouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the
estimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable
run-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles.
Edouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track
for the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the
subtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been
changed substantially and remains very close to the multi-model
consensus TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 32.2N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 42.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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En esta animación se aprecia muy bien el proceso cíclico de la convección de Edouard... mejor-peor-mejor-peor....
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-5kq-PTapikY/VBVF6SkOmrI/AAAAAAAABUw/8HVP69Ib6lg/w720-h480-no/rdedgdt.gif)
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A largo plazo hay novedades en los escenarios planteados por los dos grandes, el europeo IFS y el americano GFS:
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-kqwwV4ZGc_c/VBVL0cWxXuI/AAAAAAAABVU/1yLO7ttlHu8/w813-h465-no/get_legacy_plot-web248-20140914065841-4167-9550.gif)
Llegada a Azores y, finalmente, integración con la Borrasca de las Azores... en tal caso, habría que observar con lupa cómo se produce ese proceso, no fuera que diera lugar a un proceso de ciclogénesis.
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-98m4w2NZtww/VBVL5ZPdX3I/AAAAAAAABVc/s7DErboJzo0/w803-h567-no/gjfv.png)
Muy importante es el escenario planteado por GFS a largo plazo: algo similar al IFS pero con otro elemento importante, que es el desarrollo de otro ciclón tropical en los alrededores de Cabo Verde. Se produciría con el cinturón anticiclónico subtropical muy debilitado y sintiéndose atraído tanto por la baja de Azores como por Edouard en las proximidades. Esta tendencia habrá que vigilarla con suma atención.
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-9RkrjCdMd3c/VBVN0yB_85I/AAAAAAAABV8/JqCoVwLSeRI/w821-h567-no/gnfgc.png)
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Hay cambios en la actualización 12 del CNH: consideran que Edouard será post-tropical antes de llegar a las Azores...
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL EDOUARD ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062014
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST DOMINGO 14 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2014
...EDOUARD CERCA DE SER HURACAN SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL...
RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...24.0 NORTE 49.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 950 MILLAS...1530 KM ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO
DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...992 MILIBARES...29.30 PULGADAS
000
WTNT41 KNHC 140857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014
Edouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band
has wrapped around the cyclone's center. Dvorak classifications
from both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique is substantially lower. The current intensity of
Edouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the
system may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties. The
vertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper
tropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now
that Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear
predicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10
kt from 24 through 72 hours. This along with quite warm 29C waters
is likely to lead to continued intensification through three days.
The new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly
higher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of
the SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the
vertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as
Edouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion
and shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to
maintain its intensity through day 4. By day 5, cold waters and
very strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial
weakening. Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS
storm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical
cyclone by day 5.
The improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the
infrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a
fairly confident assessment of the current position. Edouard is
moving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the
steering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. Edouard
will round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward
the northeast about 3 days. The NHC track prediction is based upon
the tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is
slightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72
hours and slightly east thereafter.
The tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an
earlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than
that previously analyzed.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 24.0N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Landsea
-
Primera imagenes visibles del sistema y... ojo!!??!
(http://imageshack.com/a/img913/5113/7iKERc.gif)
(http://imageshack.com/a/img540/4048/93BxBy.gif)
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Hoy, Eduoard se convertirá en huracán de categoría 1, a partir de pasado mañana comenzará a girar y acabará llegando a, ¿las Azores?, los modelos apuestan por eso, aunque ya estaría debilitado, lo que pase después, aún es una incertidumbre..
(http://i58.tinypic.com/3465buu.png)
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Dado que es clara la formación de un ojo, Edouard se puede afirmar que ya es huracán.......................
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxfOwnwCQAEwUJL.png:large)
-
Una tremenda explosión convectiva ha conseguido taparle el ojo, aunque creo que esto va a ser momentáneo. Más veo esto como un nuevo impulso del sistema convectivo del ciclón, poniendo en juego el calor latente que haya liberado este "convective burst".
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-1QxvMmBSZ0o/VBWZDtAK91I/AAAAAAAABWk/Km8jVrzPyiM/w720-h480-no/hnh.gif)
-
La animación del microondas simulado muestra las diversas reconstrucciones que ha sufrido el núcleo de Edouard, fruto de esos pulsos en su convección...
Desde que comenzó a generar ojo, se han sucedido varias explosiones convectivas que a buen seguro lo están intensificando 8)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-hVTCZZjX8BA/VBWkV9SlvoI/AAAAAAAABXU/3kC5sXLraP8/w720-h540-no/bnvbn.gif)
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La mayoría de lo comentado arriba aparece recogido en la reciente actualización del boletín del CNH 8) Además, añadir el hecho de que puede llegar a ser un gran huracán (categoría 3), cosa que ya comentábamos ayer debido a la bolsa de aguas anormalmente cálidas que se asienta en el Atlántico Central :D ;)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 141451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014
Edouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improve
since the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convection
surrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200
UTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrus
from a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTC
Windsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a
15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are a
consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values
have been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to the
eye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is only
being increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourth
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season.
Edouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to the
formation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about
305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude is
expected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by a
turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strong
mid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S.
east coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught up
into the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the
east-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on this
developing steering pattern, and the official forecast closely
follows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA.
Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a
very favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all
of the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the
cyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should
not continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane
over the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be the
dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the only
reason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at this
time. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTs
and encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which is
expected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard is
forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the system
becomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The
official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous
forecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peak
intensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincide
with the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in the
lowest shear conditions.
A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a research
mission into Edouard.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 24.7N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
Hora local de Caracas 11:45am
Edouard es el cuarto huracán del Atlántico:
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...24.7 NORTE 50.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 915 MILLAS...1470 KM ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO
DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 305 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...984 MILIBARES...29.06 PULGADAS
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/2_zps478fabf0.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/2_zps478fabf0.jpg.html)
Continúa la ligera cizalladura desde el SO. Aquí otra imágen satelital del ojo estructurado, mas temprano hoy:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/1_zps5fbfb10e.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/1_zps5fbfb10e.jpg.html)
-
Nueva salida del GFS, y más de lo mismo... Edouard cerca de Azores, aunque quizás ya como post tropical.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxhYNtfCcAAmlyT.png:large)
-
000
WTNT41 KNHC 142032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014
Edouard has become better organized this afternoon. The eye of the
hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and
deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity
and coverage during the past few hours. NOAA hurricane hunters
investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-
level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. These data and
the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,
support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt. Additional
strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the
hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.
The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air
that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.
Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the
cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,
which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in
about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in
about two days followed by a steady decline after that.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by
a subtropical ridge centered to its north. This ridge is expected
to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to
gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days. By
mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east. The
NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few
days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 h.
The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into
and around the circulation of Edouard. These data will be useful in
analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should
help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 25.4N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 29.3N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 31.2N 56.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 40.1N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 41.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
-
Hora local de Caracas 5:30pm
Ha mejorado un poco en relación a su aspecto de hace horas. Se fortalece y organiza lentamente:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zps5b0d015d.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zps5b0d015d.gif.html)
-
000
WTNT41 KNHC 150255
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014
Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this
evening. Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it
has recently disappeared. Convective cloud top temperatures in the
central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several
hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into
portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity
estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.
The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive
for intensification during the next day or two. While traversing
warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48
hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental
air wrapping around the circulation. After achieving a peak
intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely
to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface
temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and
dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond
72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough moving
across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of
extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear
cut on a completion of this process by day 5. The intensity
forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72
hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast
period.
The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on
a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until
the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so. This change in the
steering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharply
northward in about 36 hours. The hurricane should then be captured
by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward
in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward
speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the
left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in
that direction. The new track forecast, however, lies on the far
right side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 26.2N 53.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 30.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 32.4N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 37.4N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 41.2N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/0000Z 41.2N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Evolución últimas horas, en que se le ve bastante bien consolidado y con explosiones convectivas decentes en la pared del ojo. Eso sí, CNH cada vez ve antes el proceso de transición extratropical, aunque explican que no ven clara una consecución total en los plazos de previsión razonables que manejan...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-fG5NQUHeJJs/VBaexCag8XI/AAAAAAAABYE/SZhg7pYv5TA/w720-h480-no/fgthf.gif)
-
Ya es categoría 2....
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014
Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has
strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight. A dropsonde
released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at
0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the
corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a
major hurricane. This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the
UW-CIMSS ADT. On the other hand, low-level wind data from the
dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an
intensity estimate between 75-80 kt. As a compromise between the
data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.
Environmental conditions should support some additional
intensification during the next couple of days. Modest
southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but
the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours. In addition, the
hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3
days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching
major hurricane status between 24-48 hours. After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening
trend is expected by day 3. Edouard is forecast to be over 22C
water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose
its deep convection and become post-tropical. At this point, it
appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones
over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the
forecast period.
The initial motion remains 305/13 kt. Edouard is expected to turn
northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and
then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various
models. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model
consensus TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 26.9N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 27.9N 55.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 34.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 39.1N 48.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 41.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Ber
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
-
Parece poco probable que el huracán consiga intensificarse más, a tenor de lo que prevén los modelos...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxk0TqPIYAEBkj_.png:large)
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Nueva actualización sobre Edouard, manteniendo su intensidad y con oportunidad todavía para convertirse en el primer "major" de la temporada, a la vez que comienza a girar rumbo Azores... Se espera que bastante tiempo antes haya transicionado o comenzarlo a hacerlo...
3 aviones cazahuracanes del NOAA se encuentran en ruta para investigarlo.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 151437
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014
Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger
and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly
symmetric inner-core convective pattern. Despite the improved
structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so
the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt. Three NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and
will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and
structure.
Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13
kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is
expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to
its north shifts eastward and weakens. By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast. A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is
predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is
steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the
northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left
of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA
guidance.
Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours
while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions. Beyond that
time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear
should cause the system to weaken steadily. Post-tropical
transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be
over sea surface temperature below 23 C. The post-tropical phase of
the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 27.3N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 54.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 40.0N 45.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 40.5N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-ILxjRfCA4pw/VBcCKC2a7hI/AAAAAAAABYs/dwZDRHi1uA0/w720-h480-no/gggg.gif)
-
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/416/offf_wzh5.png)
GFS sigue manteniendo a Edouard como ciclón independiente una vez supere Azores... Además, se queda como estático, bajando de latitud y provocando una atracción sobre una onda tropical que puede haber evolucionado para entonces a depresión o tormenta tropical en Cabo Verde....
-
NOAAHurricaneHunters @NOAA_HurrHunter 5 h
Inside the eye of #Edouard from #NOAA43 (NOAA P3) 9/14/14 Photo: Mr. J. Parrish
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxkjN28IEAEWZ2A.jpg:large)
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Ayer el satélite SUOMI NPP hizo su pasada sobre Edouard captando esta fantástica imagen... :o :o :o :o :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxluhLLIQAEF8Nn.png:large)
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Actualmente, los vientos mas intensos se encuentran al este-noreste del ojo del sistema. Se llegan a los 93kt (unos 173 km/h) ;)
(http://imageshack.com/a/img901/5157/Lr9WHw.gif)
Y dejo una animacioncilla centrada en el ojo de Edouard ;)
(http://imageshack.com/a/img661/3524/I4YtQJ.gif)
Veremos a ver la proxima actualizacion del CNH como se presenta 8)
-
Pues yo diría, a tenor de lo que se ve en la animación que has colgado, chulísima, que ha mejorado su estructura. Seguramente estará tomando posesión de la categoría 3 :D1 8) ;)
-
:o :o :o :o :o :o
El visible es muy llamativo, pero en microondas todavía no se le ve suficientemente consolidado quizás...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmF6sACMAA3Fbg.jpg:large)
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En la animación de imágenes IR + RGB con la temperatura de los topes nubosos se ve que la convección está ganando consistencia en el anillo convectivo, con topes cada vez más fríos. Sin duda, en este loop, la organización va de menos a más de forma muy clara. A ver si se mantiene la tendencia.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-9A2K0HMCxO8/VBdAsKmtJlI/AAAAAAAABZY/CGbBNAsJEGg/w720-h480-no/eddoua.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 3:20pm
Edouard a nada de la CAT3; Pmin= 965mb Vientos sostenidos en 95kt (176km/h) Ráfagas en 115kt (213 km/h), principalmente en el cuadrante E del centro:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_000004_zps861f22d5.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_000004_zps861f22d5.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zps8e582be6.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zps8e582be6.gif.html)
Detalle del ojo, luciendo un overshooting top en el eyewall:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_000003_zpsb0f88b15.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_000003_zpsb0f88b15.jpg.html)
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Así es... y el CNH, que está actualizando su boletín en estos momentos, lo dice bien claro:
...EDOUARD ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...
Nuestras apreciaciones en este hilo, impecables 8)
Añadir que en la última animación posts arriba se aprecia cambio de rumbo más a norte...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 152033
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
Edouard is approaching category 3 strength. The eye of the
hurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection
has increased in the eyewall. Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well
as dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate
that maximum winds are near 95 kt and the minimum pressure has
decreased to 963 mb. Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft
indicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric.
The hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so
while both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable.
After that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable
increase in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace.
The cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by
day 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting
with a frontal zone. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the
intensity model consensus, IVCN.
Edouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower
pace than earlier, 305/11 kt. Water vapor imagery and satellite-
derived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has
been steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over
the western Atlantic. This change in the large-scale pattern
should cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours.
By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. A slow down and a turn toward the
southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the
weakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a
deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The NHC track forecast
has again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with
the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 28.0N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 34.0N 55.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 36.8N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 40.6N 43.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 40.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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¡Bonito ojo!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxl5YelCAAAUbD5.jpg:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxl5Y7ZCMAAahg0.jpg:large)
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Amanece un nuevo día y en la última discusión del CNH la nueva trayectoria prevista se va pareciendo más a lo pronosticado por GFS que le lleva como post tropical al sur de Azores ... luego ampliaremos más info.
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
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Hmmmm las imágenes satelitales del huracan esta mañana son bastante impresionantes... el anillo convectivo es muy sólido y con topes bastante fríos.
Si todavía no es categoría 3, sigue al borde de serlo...
(http://img.tapatalk.com/d/14/09/16/uhymyryb.jpg)
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
-
El giro al norte ya se está produciendo y además, el anillo convectivo es bastante solido y con buena convección... Al límite de la categoría 3, si no lo es ya...
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-ht4p96ekVQw/VBf4VNWCBmI/AAAAAAAABaE/I4IaZSlaXhM/w720-h480/hynh.gif)
-
En la ultima actualizacion de los vientos, lo dan ya con categoria 3, al superar los 96 kt ::) ::)
(http://imageshack.com/a/img538/1885/ecigmP.gif)
Creo que tenemos aqui ya al primer "major" de la temporada :D
-
Pues lo cierto es que las animaciones de imágenes IR + RGB de temperatura de topes nubosos siguen mostrando a mi juicio una evolución positiva en cuanto a intensificación... Además, creo observar un ojo algo más pequeño...
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-AuSsIhoVbR4/VBgbXpXle_I/AAAAAAAABaw/gRXqQyWXS3E/w720-h480-no/hynh.gif)
Por otro lado, pocas oportunidades va a tener de sobrevivir en cuanto se aproxime a las Azores... Las bajas presiones persistentes en el área están motivando el enfriamiento de las aguas, y ya aparecen importante anomalías negativas...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2401/iyul_hnd9.gif)
-
Amanece sobre Edouard... y las imágenes son espectaculares. Da la impresión (puedo estar equivocado) que está adoptando configuración anular...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7333/edod_ntn8.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxpqj0bCYAATE5Z.png:large)
-
GFS... en media de sus miembros, lo lleva directo a las Azores. Invariable la previsión por tanto.
-
NRL indica 959 hPa de presión estimada en su centro y 100 KT, lo que lo eleva a categoría 3 y gran huracán!
El 1º de la temporada, y desde hace 2 años...........
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxp7kIiIIAEaR_J.jpg:large)
-
Edouard ayer, visto a través del satélite Suomi NPP de la NASA.......... Magnífico!!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxqEjQdIcAAkaCR.png:large)
-
Que barbaridad, como está evolucionando el bicho .... :o
Las imágenes son impresionantes, y sí Pedro, puede ser que cuando llegue a las aguas más frescas de las Azores , se desinfle un poco , o sea absorbido por la pertinaz borrasca de las Azores... quien lo diría , que hablaríamos de una borrasca estática en las Azores.... :P
La fuerza que está teniendo la corriente del Este Africana , está respaldada por la QBO en su fase del Este , que en cuanto toca aguas tropicales en la costa atlántica suele generar estos espectáculos , sin embargo , que suelan ascender hasta cerca de nuestras latitudes no es tan normal... :o
-
Aquí tenemos la confirmación :D1 :D1 :D1
000
WTNT41 KNHC 161447
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014
Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive
satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the
central dense overcast. Edouard is upgraded to a major
hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt
from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface
wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall. Edouard is the first major
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the
first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on
October 25, 2012.
Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next
12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm
waters. A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear
should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late
tomorrow. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the
latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus. Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by
day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to
rather cool waters in the cyclone's path.
The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11.
Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will
turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies
during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected
by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The interaction of
the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to
become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL
models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores. However,
the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic
GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the
bulk of the guidance. Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC
prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though
the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new
official track at long range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 31.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 33.0N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 38.4N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 40.3N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 41.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 40.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1200Z 38.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Blake
-
Lo que venías comentando Pedro. ;)
-
Hora local de Caracas 2:30pm
Impresionantes las visibles que publicaron. Ante esas imágenes satelitales para que colocar otras ;D ;D
-
Pues si ha subido como ha subido, podemos decir que ya ha entrado en decadencia. ...
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
-
Hora local de Caracas 3:30pm
El ojo desde la EEI, cortesía de @astro_reid
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/c_zpsbf0126d0.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/c_zpsbf0126d0.jpg.html)
-
Visto desde la ISS ¡precioso!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxrWyjLIMAApZ_Q.jpg:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxrW9nOIAAE1uoh.jpg:large)
-
Se apreciaba facilmente en el sat durante la tarde, y así lo refleja el CNH. Edouard comienza a entrar en declive... para terminar muriendo a las puertas de Azores...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 162057
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014
Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard
has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in
a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image. The last few passes from the
aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from
the SFMR observed a few hours ago. These data suggest an initial
wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory. Since the hurricane has less
than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its
eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken. After that time,
Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much
cooler water and into higher shear. The NHC forecast is lower than
the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in
consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the
intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to
become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become
extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it
developing frontal features by that time.
Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little
faster at about 13 kt. The hurricane will move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it
moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high. An eastward
acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still
forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it
moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance is
in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 32.3N 57.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 39.7N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 40.9N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 39.4N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1800Z 36.0N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Blake
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:15pm
Edouard comienza a debilitarse, es un HU CAT2:
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 57.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/e_zpsf6d192a7.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/e_zpsf6d192a7.gif.html)
-
Buenos días! por twitter comentaba hace unos minutos que a pesar de la tendencia decadente que expresa el CNH en su última discusión sobre Edouard, este parece tener otras intenciones, según se ve en la animación de imágenes IR + RGb 8) :D1
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-a_1__LCyzI8/VBk8qi87fSI/AAAAAAAABbU/ylLuwB2to_I/w720-h480-no/eddd.gif)
-
Pues sin embargo, siguen bajando la intensidad y es ya un categoría 1. Si es cierto que tiene un aspecto de una categoría mayor, pero le dan entre 75kt y 80kt. Eso si, el ojo cada vez es mas pequeño ;)
-
Pues sin embargo, siguen bajando la intensidad y es ya un categoría 1. Si es cierto que tiene un aspecto de una categoría mayor, pero le dan entre 75kt y 80kt. Eso si, el ojo cada vez es mas pequeño ;)
Pues sí......... A veces no entiendo el criterio del CNH, pero en fin. Las imágenes son las que son... Además, parece que no va a hacer impacto en las Azores, haciendo un nuevo recurve hacia el sur, en tierra de nadie, donde se disipará.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 170849
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014
Edouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed
very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images
indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level
concentric rings. A dropsonde released into the southeastern
eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission
measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which
equates to an intensity of about 75 kt. Edouard's initial
intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the
dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.
Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and
961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm
pressure of 959 mb.
Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12
hours or so. Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,
vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows
westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours. With the environment
becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after
that. The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate
from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic
support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical
low by day 3, if not sooner.
Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.
The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude
westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the
next 24 hours or so. However, the cyclone is forecast to stay
south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and
slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis. Toward the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward
before it reaches the main islands of the Azores. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then
shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the
ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn. The updated NHC
track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too
far from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 35.1N 55.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 39.3N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 40.3N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 40.3N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 40.1N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Berg
-
Malas noticias para Edouard.... se está viendo arrastrado a un ambiente con mucha cizalladura y con aguas más frías...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxuuEwBCEAAeOcF.png:large)
-
El efecto de la cizalladura se comienza a notar en la forma de Edouard, más elongado de norte a sur, y el oscurecimiento con cirros de su ojo....................................... 8)
La imagen es impresionante.... :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :<<O
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxuvvAbIQAAwP8l.png:large)
-
Como sabéis, el NOAA cuenta con una serie de aviones no tripulados que están realizando labores de investigación sobre los huracanes como es el Edouard. Sandy Delgado, a través de Facebook, publica este enlace para ver la pasada (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/11622888/eye_pass0611.mov) de esta mañana de uno de estos aviones sobre el ojo de Edouard... funciona con la app de Quicktime.
-
Yo sigo erre que erre y sigo diciendo que tiene una aspecto muy bueno como para ser un categoría 1 nada mas. Un ojo mas definido que antes y limpio ??? ???
(http://imageshack.com/a/img661/4396/fRx0Ma.gif)
-
La verdad es que la animación MIMIC de Edouard muestra unos topes nubosos con más brillo, lo que significa convección más activa, y también un doble eyewall, que quiere decir que el ciclón no logra completar un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo. Vamos, está luchando como un campeón ;D ;D ;D
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-EO1GGuj5M-c/VBmLlU5CLjI/AAAAAAAABb8/298vnaqtY6U/w720-h540-no/cgfnhfgn.gif)
-
Reciente actualización del boletín del CNH: mantiene dos anillos convectivos concéntricos, intentando ejecutar un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo, pero sin terminar de realizarlo. Además, destaca que la presión es bastante baja, estimada en 958 hPa por el último vuelo cazahuracanes, pero con vientos mantenidos en 80 KT debido a que el gradiente de presión no es lo suficientemente grande para redundar en una mayor intensidad de estos.
Resulta muy llamativo una presión de 958 hPa para un huracán de categoría 1............ :o :o
Veremos cómo se comporta porque, aunque la cizalladura aumenta, su velocidad de traslación también, por lo que vectores cizalladura y movimiento del ciclón están alineados y solo la diferencia de estos puede resultar en una cizalladura prohibitiva para el mantenimiento de la verticalidad del ciclón...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 171457
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014
Edouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the
latest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft wind data. Even though the central pressure is rather low,
958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area
comprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a
typical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still
support an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the
previous estimate.
Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the
subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic
Ocean. This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the
east-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow. In
a couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward
to the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern
Atlantic Ocean. The track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during
the post-tropical phase. The ECMWF has remained consistent on a
sharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual
equatorward motion. Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during
the past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest
side of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between
the model consensus and the ECMWF.
Edouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over
waters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours. Only a gradual
weakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters
and moderate shear. All of the global models show a sharp increase
in shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much
colder water. Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late
tomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast,
the Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus. The
cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which
is in good agreement with the global models. Although Edouard is
expected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast
period, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any
redevelopment potential.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 36.4N 53.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 38.3N 49.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 40.1N 40.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 39.7N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 39.4N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1200Z 34.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Blake
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxvouPDCMAAQvoc.jpg:large)
Y la última imagen de Edouard desde la Estación Espacial Internacional, por el astronauta Reid Wiseman
Reid Wiseman @astro_reid 47 min
#Edouard - Perhaps the most perfectly shaped #hurricane ever created by nature.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxvd_LxIcAE_wKc.jpg:large)
-
Is #Eduoard another "Nadine (2012)" scenario? ECMWF keeps the tropical cyclone around for the next 10 days #HS3
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwhztkIcAAuTne.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwhztkIcAAuTne.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwhztkIcAAuTne.png:large)
-
Hora local de Caracas 8:45pm
Continúa su progresivo debilitamiento, sin embargo mantiene una presión mínima correspondiente a un CAT3 :o :o
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
La cizalladura y las aguas frías del Atlántico hacia donde se desplaza lo condenan a seguir debilitándose:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/Image_000002_zpsd3b724c0.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/Image_000002_zpsd3b724c0.jpg.html)
La estructura ovalada sugiere que ya la cizalladura está haciendo mella en el sistema
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zpsd5ea2869.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zpsd5ea2869.gif.html)
Satélite visible vespertino:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zps38401bae.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zps38401bae.jpg.html)
-
Durante todo el día de ayer mantuvo dos anillos convectivos concéntricos, dos eyewall, en un proceso de ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo que no parece que llegase a completarse, lo cual no sabremos exactamente hasta que no se actualice el producto del CIMSS.
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-0-iDJ17vVSo/VBqL8tlE6TI/AAAAAAAABco/At9ngClOzJY/w720-h540-no/dew.gif)
-
Por otro lado, aunque en la animación del IR+RGB se ve la desaparición progresiva del ojo, el nivel de convección y la simetría sigue manteniéndose bastante buena.
Es posible que, a pesar de que ayer el CNH dijera que el ciclón se iba a mantener lejos de recibir una interacción positiva con inestabilidad baroclina, quizás esto no esté siendo así y el ciclón esté apoyándose en este mecanismo para mantener su convección y maquinaria térmica interna.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-zxYvS_U8mPM/VBqMXSO5N4I/AAAAAAAABdM/6M5ivjgk0Ss/w720-h480-no/dfbdfgb.gif)
-
Is #Eduoard another "Nadine (2012)" scenario? ECMWF keeps the tropical cyclone around for the next 10 days #HS3
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwhztkIcAAuTne.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwhztkIcAAuTne.png:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxwhztkIcAAuTne.png:large)
Esto es interesante, aunque ya veremos qué ocurre. El europeo IFS lo hace desaparecer con mucha rapidez, más que el GFS... Mañana aún se mantendrá con un fuerte reflejo en superficie; pero pasado, casi desaparece...
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-edouard-06l-atlantico-n-central-septiembre-2014/?action=dlattach;attach=27853;image)
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/tormenta-tropical-edouard-06l-atlantico-n-central-septiembre-2014/?action=dlattach;attach=27855;image)
-
No os perdáis la galería de fotos (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/edouard2014/photo.html) hechas por las incursiones de aviones cazahuracanes en el seno de Edouard! :o :o :o :o
Mientras tanto, indicar que parece que los meteos del CNH se pasan por este hilo a leer ;D ;D ;D
000
WTNT41 KNHC 180849
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014
An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,
solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep
convection. The infrared satellite presentation has not changed
appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at
75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT. Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some
atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its
convective structure. However, the SHIPS guidance shows the
instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over
30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a
faster weakening trend later today. The hostile conditions should
cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,
and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a
post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus.
The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has
an initial motion of 065/24 kt. Edouard is moving around the
northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central
Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward
around this feature during the next 3 days. Most of the track
models are in good agreement on this scenario. The two main
outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after
12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race
northeastward ahead of a cold front. The updated NHC track forecast
is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a
little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 39.6N 45.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 40.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 39.9N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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En las imágenes satelitales de Azores, ya comienza a asomar por el oeste... además, la corriente en chorro que tiene al norte le está comenzando a arrancar nubosidad, que ya roza el archipiélago...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxzzJlSCEAATUBD.png:large)
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Comienzan a aparecer síntomas de inicio de la Transición Extratropical en Edouard............. :-\
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx0d7-oIMAE4LQz.png:large)
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Este sí que sería un gran viaje.............. Especialmente si al volver a aguas tropicales decide volver a desarrollarse... :D1 :D1 :D1
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx0fc6bCcAAyBZT.png:large)
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Ojito a todo lo que podemos aprender hoy con Edouard y Eumetrain sobre la naturaleza de los ciclones tropicales, aunque sea las últimas horas de vida de estos...
Edouard, justo al sur del Chorro Polar, pero rodeado de aire seco y comenzando la transición extratropical por el impacto de este y de la fuerte cizalladura vertical del viento desacoplando los centros y comenzando a desnudarle la convección. Marcado reflejo en niveles bajos y medios, pero si añadimos el campo de isohipsas de 300 hPa, apenas sí aparece reflejo (tan solo una isohipsa cerrada).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx0jcF-IYAA3WDP.png:large)
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Y añado otra figura, que completa a lo que decía en el anterior post...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx0kwZmCYAEVUUM.png:large)
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El HIRLAM de AEMET aún refleja de forma más clara la naturaleza cálida del núcleo del ciclón tropical 8)
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CNH actualizó el boletín hace rato, y viene a explicar lo que hemos estado comentando....
000
WTNT41 KNHC 181436
TCDAT1
HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014
A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened
up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat
tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around
1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually
decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady
weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose
its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by
that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard
dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the
official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of
the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus.
The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard
is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward
around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward
by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement
on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and
UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion,
respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory.
The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the
above-mentioned ASCAT pass.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Se nota que tienen ganas de que Edouard pase a ser post tropical y dejar de emitir boletines al respecto... ;D Degradado a tormenta tropical.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 182036
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014
Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery
indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have
started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with
the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east
of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based
mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the
northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located
along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on
the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a
turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new
NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track,
and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.
Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter
increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The
combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the
rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical
cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to
show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts
with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory
and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 39.9N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 39.9N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 39.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 20/1800Z 39.8N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1800Z 37.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 32.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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El pobre Edouard está pasando sus últimas horas de vida como ciclón tropical................
000
WTNT41 KNHC 190852
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014
Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less
organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is
now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid-
level circulation decoupled well to the southeast. With the
absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength
quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little
higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration
of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data. Edouard is unlikely to
redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with
strong shear. Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will
likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours. Extratropical
transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global
models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing
frontal features by that time.
Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with
initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt. A continued eastward
motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between
the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast
Atlantic Ocean. The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous
NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which
results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 39.8N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z 34.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx4mLyPIgAAzr8H.png:large)
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Se está quedando convertido en un mero remolino de nubes bajas con una circulación todavía vigorosa... Pero la convección, arrancada de cuajo y desplazada al sureste...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx43y0sCAAIJAr0.jpg:large)
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Animación en la que se observa a la perfección cómo la convección de Edouard es apartada y destruida por la cizalladura, haciendo que solo quede un vigoroso remolino de nubes bajas.
Así, me extrañaría que el CNH todavía emita algún aviso como Edouard aún siendo ciclón tropical. Probablemente en el próximo, el 33, será declarado ya post-tropical.
Por otro lado, al no tener estructura vertical, ya no está tan "empujado" por los vientos en niveles superiores, por lo que su velocidad de traslación es menor. De ahí que comience a moverse hacia el sureste, lentamente.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-S4aTYBstdqI/VBw5gnSxb3I/AAAAAAAABeo/AVnmFjQaNFY/w720-h480-no/posted.gif)
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Bueno, van a esperar una chispa más, pero el pescado está todo vendido....... Mantendremos una vigilancia sobre la evolución de sus restos, a ver a dónde van a parar, y si cumplen las expectativas de los diagramas de fase, que lo devuelven a aguas más cálidas, y contemplan una futura regeneración... ::)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 191458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014
Edouard is weakening rapidly. Strong northwesterly shear has
caused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple
during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any
deep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard
will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend
of Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is
lowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind
vectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat
higher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the
circulation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the
next couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly
shear and its passage over cold water. Extratropical transition is
indicated by the global models in about 48 hours. The intensity
forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows
remnant low status sooner. Dissipation is expected in about 3 days.
Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours,
and the initial motion estimate is 110/03. The cyclone is expected
to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next
day or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to
the south. A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after
that time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the
west side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic.
The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only
shifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS
solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 39.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 39.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 39.5N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/0000Z 38.9N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 37.3N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman
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En la última actualización del CNH de ayer y última sobre Edouard, este fue declarado post tropical.
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100
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¡Precioso!
http://youtu.be/0VmOvqQdVbk (http://youtu.be/0VmOvqQdVbk)
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Espectacular el video , la QBO en fase Este se muestra fuerte en el ecuador, dándole mucho empuje a la Corriente del Este Africana, y además podemos observar unos de los principios básicos de meteorología, que es cuando los vientos van subiendo de paralelo desde el ecuador, van moviéndose conforme a la fuerza de Coriolis ..
Francamente muy ilustrativo Jota. :D