Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Julio 08, 2012, 19:32:49 pm
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Parece que puede seguir los pasos de DANIEL, y convertirse también en otro "major"...
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081437
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM
HURRICANE DANIEL. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH
SOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN
ON MICROWAVE DATA.
ASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW
FROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. WEAKENING SHOULD START IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS THE
BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL
TRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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De hecho ya ha llegado a Categioría 1
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Por su aspecto, estoy muy de acuerdo con los comentarios que se hacen en el último boletín... Puede sufrir un proceso de intensificación rápida en las próximas 24 horas... De hecho, yo apostaría incluso por un categoría 4 8)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1324/ft0_lalo_pxd7.jpg)
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090857
TCDEP5
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. A 09/0330 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD
DEVELOPED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...EMILIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.
TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/10 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN
DIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST AND THE
GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM SOUTH OF
TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE
DISTINCT NORTHWARD-BIAS OF THE GFS MODEL WITH HURRICANE DANIEL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TV15.
BASED ON THE TIGHT INNER CORE NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS AND FSSE/FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 32 KT
AND 33 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15
KT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LEVEL OFF THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS UNTIL
EMILIA REACHES COOLER WATERS BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE
INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 11.9N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 12.4N 110.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 13.0N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.5N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.9N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 14.6N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 15.4N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 16.4N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Ya es categoría dos... ::)
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 091453
TCDEP5
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY FROM A
CATEGORY ONE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...SPECIFYING THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MIGHT BE STRONGER. HOWEVER THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS WELL-DEFINED ON RECENT IR IMAGES...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.
EMILIA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN RELATIVELY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS IS ABOVE ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ASSUMING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN 24-36
HOURS. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED.
EMILIA CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS ABOUT 290/10. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK PREDICTION. THIS IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 12.6N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.0N 111.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 13.6N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 15.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 17.0N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2993/vis0_lalo_lje7.jpg)
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Emilia captada como tormenta tropical por el satélite de la NASA Terra, en una imagen de color natural a las 10:45 am del 08 de julio. La tormenta tenía vientos máximos sostenidos de 65 millas (100 kilómetros) por hora, y se dirigía hacia el oeste-noroeste.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fCh-43yuIvg/T_tNMXoaQTI/AAAAAAAABnQ/5dDsLtclVbw/s720/emilia.jpg)
Aquí vemos a Emilia y Daniel en el Pacífico, en una imagen en el canal de vapor de agua de este mediodía:
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-Q_Drhh4DHu0/T_tNLahz1RI/AAAAAAAABnM/tqIhfEaRKJQ/s525/dos%2520huracanes%2520pacifico%25202.jpg)
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Categoría 3...................................... ::) :O*
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7217/ft0_lalo_xtp7.jpg)
El grosor del anillo convectivo alrededor del ojo es impresionante!
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100235
TCDEP5
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C WRAPPING
THE ENTIRE WAY AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
OF THE DAY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE THAT WAS OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FREE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T5.5 OR 102
KT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR T6.0 OR 115 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING
EMILIA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN THEREAFTER DUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS FROM DAY 3 TO 5. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMMON IN MATURE HURRICANES LIKE
EMILIA. IF ONE OCCURS...IT WOULD LIKELY PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED
AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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8) 8) 8) 8) 8) :D1
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100848
TCDEP5
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS
OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A
VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5685/ft0_lalo_vcx0.jpg)
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Noticia en portada: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2780-majestuoso-huracan-emilia-en-el-pacifico-noreste.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2780-majestuoso-huracan-emilia-en-el-pacifico-noreste.html)
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Vaya bestia!!!!!! :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/9235/emilief.png)
Mas resolución: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Emilia.A2012191.1825.500m.jpg (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Emilia.A2012191.1825.500m.jpg)
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Ahora ya va a iniciar un camino que le llevará a su muerte definitiva...
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EMILIA está por el S de Hawaii y aún hay seguimiento.
05E.EMILIA.25kts.1009mb.14.9N.155.6W
(http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/5776/201207182030goes15ir05e.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/854/201207182030goes15ir05e.jpg/)
En fin... vaya churro... :-\
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Pues mantiene una convección bastante decente! Muy bien observado, Eker :D1
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7518/emilia_rvg7.jpg)