Vaya bicho! Ha seguido fortaleciéndose!

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM
SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT.  THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.  JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION.  FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS
NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN
140W-156W.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR
FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER.  IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. 

A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA
MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
AFTER 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W   120 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W   120 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W   110 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W    35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

    ojala solo les roce un poco  por el sur o pase de largo más al norte .....

Echadle un vistazo a esta noticia y sobre todo al video, se ve a los meteorologos siguiendo al monstruito y analizan con extrañas imagenes de satelite, parecen de vapor, la situacion que se les avecina en Hawai:
http://kgmb9.com/main/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19849&Itemid=40

Destaco este comentario de la última entrada de Jeff Masters en su blog: While the current forecast calls for Felicia to have a minor impact on Hawaii, NHC is taking this storm seriously and has scheduled a flight of the NOAA jet into Felicia on Friday.

Traducción: "mientras las predicciones actuales claman por un impacto menor de FELICIA sobre las Hawaii, el CNH se está tomando en serio esta tormenta, y ha programado un vuelo del cazahuracanes del NOAA hacia FELICIA el viernes"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1271

Ojito con FELICIA, que empieza a dar sorpresas......... Ayer, los del CNH esperara que el ciclón entrara en la fase de declive definitivo, y no sólo no ha pasado eso, sino que en su último boletín de análisis, comentan que se ha tornado mejor organizado que en horas anteriores

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080243
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING A TRMM OVERPASS...INDICATE THAT
FELICIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE IS MORE DISTINCT...AND THE EYEWALL IS MORE SYMMETRIC WITH
COLDER CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM
TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.  THE
HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
OF FELICIA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE MODELS
FORECAST FELICIA TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...
A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS EVOLUTION BLOCKING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF FELICIA...CAUSING THE STORM TO
SHEAR APART IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WOULD THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE TRADE WINDS.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
IT...CALLING FOR FELICIA TO PASS NEAR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII BETWEEN
72-96 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR FELICIA TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL
INTEGRITY AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR HAWAII.

FELICIA IS STILL MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN...THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
NOTWITHSTANDING.  WHILE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST INCREASE
STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HR...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASED SHEAR BEGINNING IN 36-48 HR.  ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS FELICIA APPROACHES
HAWAII...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.  IF FELICIA
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SSTS
AND LESS SHEAR...WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE INTO STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND
HASTEN ITS DEMISE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 18.8N 138.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 19.3N 139.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 142.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 19.6N 145.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 19.6N 147.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 153.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 159.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 20.0N 164.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

jejeje, risas risas    menudo huracan eh pedro, ahí, enmedio de la nada, pero que en Hawai me parece que estan moscas, a ver que pasa, y a ver si vemos videos de la marea ciclonica de FElicia en Hawai 

FELICIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND 48 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  SHOULD FELICIA ASSUME A MOTION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER A LOWER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...A MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD LEAD FELICIA INTO
EVEN HIGHER SHEAR AND WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0900Z 19.0N 139.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.3N 141.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 143.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 19.6N 146.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 149.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 154.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 20.0N 165.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

Hmmm He modificado el mensaje a partir de contrastar imágenes de varias fuentes. Creo que el NRL está confundido con las imágenes... Hay que ver estos monstruos, tan grandioso, y a la vez tan frágiles, no creas!!!