Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: seal en Agosto 04, 2009, 16:22:05 pm
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Tambien el en pacifico Este:
Tracking Info For Tropical Depression Eight-E
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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03 GMT 08/04/09 11.9N 122.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 123.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
Parece que será tormenta tropical pronto, si no lo es ya:
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908.gif)
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es huracan cat1 ;)
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CICLÓN TROPICAL
HURACAN “FELICIA”
SITUACIÓN ACTUAL
LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FELICIA SE INTENSIFICÓ RÁPIDAMENTE A HURACÁN
ZONA DE ALERTA
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INDICE DE PELIGROSIDAD
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HORA LOCAL (HORA GMT)
16:00 HORAS LOCAL (21 GMT)
UBICACIÓN DEL CENTRO DEL CICLÓN
COORDENADAS: 12.4° LAT. NORTE
126.6° LONG. OESTE
DISTANCIA AL LUGAR MÁS CERCANO
1,815 km AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE ISLA SOCORRO, COL.
Y A 2,045 km AL SUROESTE DE PUERTO CORTÉS, BCS.
DESPLAZAMIENTO ACTUAL
HACIA EL OESTE (280°) A 22 km/h
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS: 130 km/h
RACHAS: 155 km/h
PRESIÓN MÍNIMA CENTRAL
985 hPa
RADIO DE VIENTOS DE 64 km/h
85 km AL NE
110 km al SE
85 km AL SW
85 km AL NW
RADIO DE OLEAJE DE 4 m
55 km AL NE
55 km AL SE
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DIAMETRO DEL OJO
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DIAMETRO DE FUERTE CONVECCIÓN
400 km
COMENTARIOS ADICIONALES
“FELICIA” ES EL TERCER HURACÁN DE LA TEMPORADA 2009 EN EL PACÍFICO NOR-ORIENTAL. SE DESPLAZA HACIA EL OESTE, MUY LEJOS DE COSTAS NACIONALES.
SECCIÓN B. PRONÓSTICO DE DESPLAZAMIENTO Y EVOLUCIÓN
POSICIÓN A LAS
01:00 HORAS LOCAL DEL DÍA 5 (06 GMT)
UBICACIÓN DEL CENTRO DEL CICLÓN
COORDENADAS: 13.0° LAT. NORTE
128.3° LONG. OESTE
DISTANCIA AL LUGAR MÁS CERCANO
1,960 km AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE ISLA SOCORRO, COL.
Y A 2,140 km AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE PUERTO CORTÉS, BCS.
DESPLAZAMIENTO PRONÓSTICO
HACIA EL OESTE
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS: 155 km/h (COMO HURACÁN DE CATEGORÍA II)
RACHAS: 195 km/h
ESTADOS CON POTENCIAL DE AFECTACIÓN
SIN AFECTACIÓN.
RECOMENDACIONES
A TODA LA NAVEGACIÓN MARÍTIMA EN LAS INMEDIACIONES DEL SISTEMA POR LLUVIA, VIENTO FUERTE A INTENSO Y OLEAJE ELEVADO.
ELABORÓ: MARTÍN TÉLLEZ SAUCEDO
REVISÓ: MIGUEL Á. GALLEGOS B.
EL SIGUIENTE AVISO:
A LAS 23:00 HORAS, O ANTES EN CASO SE OCURRIR UN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO.
:-X :-X :P :P :P
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FELICIA CONSOLIDA RÁPIDAMENTE A UN HURACÁN… EN 200 UTC DEL P.M. PDT… 2100… EL CENTRO DEL HURACÁN FELICIA FUE SITUADO CERCA DE LA LONGITUD DEL NORTE 126.6 DE LA LATITUD 12.4… DEL OESTE O DE CERCA DE 1315 MILLAS… 2115 KILÓMETROS… WEST-SOUTHWEST DEL TIP MERIDIONAL DE BAJA CALIFORNIA. FELICIA ESTÁ MOVIENDO HACIA LOS 14 MPH CERCANOS DEL OESTE… 22 KM/HR. QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UNA VUELTA HACIA EL DE OESNORUESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS 48 HORAS PRÓXIMAS. LAS IMÁGENES BASADAS EN LOS SATÉLITES INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS CONTINUOS MÁXIMOS HAN AUMENTADO PARA ACERCAR A 80 MPH… 130 KM/HR… CON RÁFAGAS MÁS ALTAS. LA CONSOLIDACIÓN ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE Y FELICIA PODRÍA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACÁN IMPORTANTE DURANTE EL NEXT DAY O TAN. LOS VIENTOS DE LA FUERZA DEL HURACÁN AMPLÍAN HACIA FUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS… 35 KILÓMETROS… DEL DE CENTRO… Y LOS VIENTOS TROPICALES DE LA FUERZA DE LA TORMENTA AMPLÍAN HACIA FUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS… 140 KILÓMETROS. LA PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA ESTIMADA ES MB 985… 29.09 PULGADAS. … RESUMEN 200 DE LA INFORMACIÓN DEL P.M. PDT… LOCALIZACIÓN… 12.4N 126.6W EL MÁXIMO CONTINUO ENROLLA… 80 MPH ACTUAL OESTE DEL MOVIMIENTO… O 280 GRADOS EN 14 MPH MB MÍNIMO 985 DE LA PRESIÓN CENTRAL… EL ADVISORY SIGUIENTE SERÁ PUBLICADO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DEL HURACÁN EN 800 P.M. PDT. :o :o
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:o :o :o
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
A BAND OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTER AND
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND AN EYE THAT IS NOW APPARENT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND A DATA-T NUMBER OF
5.0 FROM A 0130 UTC SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY TAFB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST
EARLIER TODAY AS IT BEGAN INTENSIFYING...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG A HEADING OF 285/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG 130W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-BUILD NORTH OF FELICIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. LATE IN THE PERIOD...FELICIA'S TRACK MAY
BE IMPACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS
FEATURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE'S TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS IS LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE LAST
PACKAGE...IT IS STILL 6 TIMES GREATER THAN THE SAMPLE MEAN. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY
OF FELICIA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE EVEN THE HIGHER
SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAY 3 AND
BEYOND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 12.8N 127.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.4N 128.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 130.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 15.3N 132.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.1N 133.9W 95 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 143.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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ES CATEGORÍA 2 :o
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Menudo pedo ha pegado el bicho ¿eh?
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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03 GMT 08/04/09 11.9N 122.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 123.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/04/09 12.7N 124.9W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
17 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 125.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/04/09 12.4N 126.6W 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/05/09 12.8N 127.2W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/05/09 13.4N 128.2W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
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CICLÓN TROPICAL
HURACAN “FELICIA”
SITUACIÓN ACTUAL
EL HURACÁN FELICIA CONTINÚA INTENSIFICANDOSE Y ALCANZA LA CATEGORÍA III EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON
ZONA DE ALERTA
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INDICE DE PELIGROSIDAD
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HORA LOCAL (HORA GMT)
10:00 HORAS LOCAL (15 GMT)
UBICACIÓN DEL CENTRO DEL CICLÓN
COORDENADAS: 14.1° LAT. NORTE
128.7° LONG. OESTE
DISTANCIA AL LUGAR MÁS CERCANO
1,960 km AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE ISLA SOCORRO, COL.
Y A 2,100 km AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE PUERTO CORTÉS, BCS.
DESPLAZAMIENTO ACTUAL
HACIA EL NOROESTE (310°) A 18 km/h
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS: 185 km/h
RACHAS: 220 km/h
PRESIÓN MÍNIMA CENTRAL
955 hPa
RADIO DE VIENTOS DE 64 km/h
195 km AL NE
165 km AL SE
140 km AL SW
165 km AL NW
RADIO DE OLEAJE DE 4 m
220 km AL NE
220 km AL SE
165 km AL SW
165 km AL SW
DIAMETRO DEL OJO
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DIAMETRO DE FUERTE CONVECCIÓN
500 km
COMENTARIOS ADICIONALES
“FELICIA” ES EL TERCER HURACÁN DE LA TEMPORADA 2009 EN EL PACÍFICO NOR-ORIENTAL. SE DESPLAZA HACIA EL NOROESTE, MUY LEJOS DE COSTAS NACIONALES.
SECCIÓN B. PRONÓSTICO DE DESPLAZAMIENTO Y EVOLUCIÓN
POSICIÓN A LAS
19:00 HORAS LOCAL (00 GMT DEL DÍA 6)
UBICACIÓN DEL CENTRO DEL CICLÓN
COORDENADAS: 15.0° LAT. NORTE
130.0° LONG. OESTE
DISTANCIA AL LUGAR MÁS CERCANO
2,065 km AL OESTE DE ISLA SOCORRO, COL.
Y A 2,165 km AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE PUERTO CORTÉS, BCS.
DESPLAZAMIENTO PRONÓSTICO
HACIA EL NOROESTE
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS: 195 km/h (COMO HURACÁN DE CATEGORÍA III)
RACHAS: 240 km/h
ESTADOS CON POTENCIAL DE AFECTACIÓN
SIN AFECTACIÓN.
RECOMENDACIONES
A TODA LA NAVEGACIÓN MARÍTIMA EN LAS INMEDIACIONES DEL SISTEMA POR LLUVIA, VIENTO FUERTE A INTENSO Y OLEAJE ELEVADO.
ELABORÓ: JESÚS CARACHURE
REVISÓ: ALBERTO HDEZ. UNZÓN
EL SIGUIENTE AVISO:
A LAS 23:00 HORAS, O ANTES EN CASO SE OCURRIR UN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO.
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Te combino el tema huracankikin, ya teníamos uno abierto para el seguimiento de este huracán ;)
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Una imagen brutal del bicho, en modo visible. Por cierto, ojo al efecto Fujiwara con ENRIQUE ;)
(http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5324/feliciam.jpg)
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110kts - 940mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1890199373.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1890199373.html)
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Cual es el efecto fujiwara pedro ? :P
Felicia es gran huracan ya.
Tracking Info For Hurricane Felicia
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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03 GMT 08/04/09 11.9N 122.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 123.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/04/09 12.7N 124.9W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
17 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 125.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/04/09 12.4N 126.6W 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/05/09 12.8N 127.2W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/05/09 13.4N 128.2W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/05/09 14.1N 128.7W 115 955 Category 3 Hurricane
Va directo a Hawai no? :P
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908_5day.gif)
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Cual es el efecto fujiwara pedro ? :P
[/b]
Va directo a Hawai no? :P
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908_5day.gif)
Es cuando dos sistemas tropicales comienzan a rotar en torno a un punto más o menos equidistante entre ambos, como si fuese un perturbación de ciclones...
Creo recordar que por la web hay algún video (muy espectacular) de dicho fenómeno.
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Cual es el efecto fujiwara pedro ? :P
[/b]
Va directo a Hawai no? :P
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908_5day.gif)
Es cuando dos sistemas tropicales comienzan a rotar en torno a un punto más o menos equidistante entre ambos, como si fuese un perturbación de ciclones...
Creo recordar que por la web hay algún video (muy espectacular) de dicho fenómeno.
Como resultado de la interacción entre dos tifones que comienzan a rotar el uno en torno al otro .el segundo tifón siempre demora el avance del primero ?????
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Eso es... no sobre un punto entre ambos y por ello uno de los tifones baja su velocidad de traslación por lo que sus efectos pueden ser más destructivos allá por donde pase.
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Vaya bicho! Ha seguido fortaleciéndose!
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE. JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION. FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS
NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN
140W-156W. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. AFTER 72 HR...THE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR
FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER. IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA
MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
AFTER 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Menudo bichus !! :o
Tracking Info For Hurricane Felicia
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 08/04/09 11.9N 122.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 123.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/04/09 12.7N 124.9W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
17 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 125.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/04/09 12.4N 126.6W 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/05/09 12.8N 127.2W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/05/09 13.4N 128.2W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/05/09 14.1N 128.7W 115 955 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/05/09 14.5N 129.7W 125 940 Category 3 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/06/09 14.9N 130.5W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/06/09 15.5N 131.2W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
En Hawai van a surfear buenas olas de la marejadilla que va a provocar ;D
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908_sat.jpg)
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908_5day.gif)
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:o ojala solo les roce un poco por el sur o pase de largo más al norte .....
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El Noaa esta emitiendo boletines ya para los surferos...
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST WED AUG 5 2009
OAHU-
700 PM HST WED AUG 5 2009
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Thursday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Thursday.
Outlook through Tuesday Aug 11: continued fresh to strong trades in the vicinity of the islands will result in choppy surf along the east facing shores through Friday. A longer period east swell associated with hurricane Felicia will arrive Sunday and increase into Monday. This east swell will likely bring surf heights to well above the 8 foot high surf advisory level along east facing shores Monday and Tuesday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
Lo van a flipar evil
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Echadle un vistazo a esta noticia y sobre todo al video, se ve a los meteorologos siguiendo al monstruito y analizan con extrañas imagenes de satelite, parecen de vapor, la situacion que se les avecina en Hawai:
http://kgmb9.com/main/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19849&Itemid=40
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Última imagen visible. Diría que ya está perdiendo fuelle aunque tiene un ojo precioso.
(http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8731/feliciavis.gif)
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Destaco este comentario de la última entrada de Jeff Masters en su blog: While the current forecast calls for Felicia to have a minor impact on Hawaii, NHC is taking this storm seriously and has scheduled a flight of the NOAA jet into Felicia on Friday.
Traducción: "mientras las predicciones actuales claman por un impacto menor de FELICIA sobre las Hawaii, el CNH se está tomando en serio esta tormenta, y ha programado un vuelo del cazahuracanes del NOAA hacia FELICIA el viernes"
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1271
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TRemenda Felicia, esa foto es cojonuda, menudo ojete :D
Ha perdido algo de intensidad, pero es un gran huracan :
Tracking Info For Hurricane Felicia
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 08/04/09 11.9N 122.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 123.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/04/09 12.7N 124.9W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
17 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 125.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/04/09 12.4N 126.6W 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/05/09 12.8N 127.2W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/05/09 13.4N 128.2W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/05/09 14.1N 128.7W 115 955 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/05/09 14.5N 129.7W 125 940 Category 3 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/06/09 14.9N 130.5W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/06/09 15.5N 131.2W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/06/09 16.0N 131.9W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/06/09 16.4N 132.7W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/07/09 16.9N 133.6W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
En Hawai empiezan a mosquearse..
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Ojito con FELICIA, que empieza a dar sorpresas......... Ayer, los del CNH esperara que el ciclón entrara en la fase de declive definitivo, y no sólo no ha pasado eso, sino que en su último boletín de análisis, comentan que se ha tornado mejor organizado que en horas anteriores :P
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080243
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING A TRMM OVERPASS...INDICATE THAT
FELICIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE IS MORE DISTINCT...AND THE EYEWALL IS MORE SYMMETRIC WITH
COLDER CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM
TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE
HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
OF FELICIA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS
FORECAST FELICIA TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...
A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS EVOLUTION BLOCKING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF FELICIA...CAUSING THE STORM TO
SHEAR APART IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WOULD THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE TRADE WINDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
IT...CALLING FOR FELICIA TO PASS NEAR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII BETWEEN
72-96 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR FELICIA TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL
INTEGRITY AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR HAWAII.
FELICIA IS STILL MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN...THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
NOTWITHSTANDING. WHILE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST INCREASE
STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HR...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASED SHEAR BEGINNING IN 36-48 HR. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS FELICIA APPROACHES
HAWAII...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. IF FELICIA
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SSTS
AND LESS SHEAR...WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE INTO STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND
HASTEN ITS DEMISE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 18.8N 138.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 19.3N 139.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 19.5N 142.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 19.6N 145.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 19.6N 147.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 153.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 159.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 20.0N 164.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Su aspecto desde el satélite es la leche :-X :-X :-X Y ahora vienen las risas....... Se torna mejor organizado sobre aguas entre 24 y 25ºC según los mapas del NOAA.
(http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/9802/felicia080809.jpg)
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jejeje, risas risas ;D menudo huracan eh pedro, ahí, enmedio de la nada, pero que en Hawai me parece que estan moscas, a ver que pasa, y a ver si vemos videos de la marea ciclonica de FElicia en Hawai 8)
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jejeje, risas risas ;D menudo huracan eh pedro, ahí, enmedio de la nada, pero que en Hawai me parece que estan moscas, a ver que pasa, y a ver si vemos videos de la marea ciclonica de FElicia en Hawai 8)
Leí a Jeff en su blog que FELICIA había sido anular en alguno/s momento/s, por lo que s eharía más resistente a un proceso de debilitamiento a causa de la temperatura del mar en descenso y tal........................ Vamos a ver, porque cada vez está más cerca de las islas, y ahora parece que podría llegar como tormenta tropical :-X
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FELICIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND 48 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD FELICIA ASSUME A MOTION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER A LOWER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD LEAD FELICIA INTO
EVEN HIGHER SHEAR AND WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 19.0N 139.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 19.3N 141.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 19.5N 143.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 19.6N 146.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 149.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 19.5N 154.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.0N 165.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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FElicia sigue como huracan categoria 1 y parece que llegará a Hawai como tormenta tropical segun los modelos, veremos si no hay sorpresas.
(http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200908_5day.gif)
Tracking Info For Hurricane Felicia
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 08/04/09 11.9N 122.7W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 123.9W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/04/09 12.7N 124.9W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
17 GMT 08/04/09 12.3N 125.8W 70 990 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/04/09 12.4N 126.6W 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/05/09 12.8N 127.2W 100 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/05/09 13.4N 128.2W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/05/09 14.1N 128.7W 115 955 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/05/09 14.5N 129.7W 125 940 Category 3 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/06/09 14.9N 130.5W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/06/09 15.5N 131.2W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/06/09 16.0N 131.9W 140 937 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/06/09 16.4N 132.7W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/07/09 16.9N 133.6W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/07/09 17.5N 134.4W 115 960 Category 3 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/07/09 17.9N 135.6W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/07/09 18.3N 136.9W 100 973 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/08/09 18.8N 138.0W 105 970 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/08/09 19.0N 139.3W 90 974 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/08/09 19.3N 140.8W 90 975 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/08/09 19.8N 142.1W 85 981 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/09/09 20.1N 143.4W 85 982 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/09/09 20.3N 144.7W 80 990 Category 1 Hurricane
Se ve pelin desorganizado.
Parte para los surferos:
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI AUG 7 2009
OAHU-
300 PM HST FRI AUG 7 2009
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Sunday.
Surf along north facing shores will remain 2 feet or less through Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will continue at 2 to 4 feet tonight, increasing to 3 to 5 feet Sunday.
Outlook through Friday Aug 14: an east swell associated with hurricane Felicia will produce stormy surf above the 8 foot advisory level along east facing shores Monday and Tuesday. The east swell should subside Wednesday. Felicia will be a tropical storm as it passes through the state and creates rough, stormy surf along all affected shores exposed to its winds.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
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Hmmm He modificado el mensaje a partir de contrastar imágenes de varias fuentes. Creo que el NRL está confundido con las imágenes... Hay que ver estos monstruos, tan grandioso, y a la vez tan frágiles, no creas!!!
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Aunque FELICIA es depresión tropical y casi no queda rastro de ella, aún se siguen emitiendo avisos. El último del Centro de Huracanes del Pacífico Central:
000
WTPA32 PHFO 111425
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009
...FELICIA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AS A PRECAUTION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
OAHU AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES EAST OF KAHULUI HAWAII AND ABOUT 245 MILES EAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH TODAY. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 154.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG