Como diria Ermuleto, Habemus Huracan Felix 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...

AT 8 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES FELIX A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM...FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

Creo que llegando a la altura de Jamaica sera mas definida la trayectoria, Prefiero el Modelo NOGAPS. Por cierto la seccion de Flash Tracker no muestra a Felix.

Pues ya tenemos al huracán en marcha, y los pronósticos esperan que se convierta en otro buen bicho :<<O

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020304
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE.  BASED ON THIS...
FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.  IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.

FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS.  THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0300Z 12.7N  66.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.2N  69.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.7N  76.6W    90 KT
48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N  79.7W   100 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  84.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  88.5W   110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

hey crunch !!! Saludos de nuevo !!!

Ni modo mano a poner las tablas de nuevo jajajaja. Ojala que quede en susto otra vez. Suerte !!! beer

BOLETIN
HURACAN FELIX ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO   6A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL   AL062007
200 AM AST DOMINGO 2 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007

...FELIX UN POCO MAS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE SU CENTRO COMIENZA A PASAR
JUSTO AL NORTE DE BONAIRE...CURAZAO...Y ARUBA...

ESTAN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE
HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS DE ARUBA...BONAIRE...Y CURAZAO. UN AVISO DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE
HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE
LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA JAMAICA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR
CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.

A LAS 200 AM AST..0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FELIX ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 67.8 OESTE O
COMO A 45 MILLAS..70 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE BONAIRE Y COMO A 145
MILLAS...235 KM...AL ESTE DE ARUBA.

FELIX SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30
KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE
U OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA
TRAERA EL CENTRO DE FELIX JUSTO AL NORTE DE BONAIRE...CURAZAO...Y
ARUBA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS.

REPORTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS
ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICARON QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN
AUMENTADO Y AHORA ESTAN ESTAN EN POR LO MENOS 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FELIX ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA
UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15
MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE LA
FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 987 MILIBARES...29.15 PULGADAS.

SE ESPERA QUE FELIX PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS
SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA DE VENEZUELA Y LAS ISLAS ANTILLANAS
HOLANDESAS DE ARUBA...BONAIRE Y CURAZAO.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM AST...12.7 NORTE...67.8 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE...A CRECA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MILIBARES.

LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST.

A las 11:00 horas (hora española), saldrá al aviso 7 del NHC.

A las 14:00 horas (hora española), saldrá el aviso intermedio 7A del NHC.

A las 17:00 horas (hora española), saldrá el aviso 8 del NHC.

A las 20:00 horas (hora española), saldrá el aviso intermedio 8A del NHC.