¿Has visto la borrasca al NW de Azores? Tiene un centro convectivo muy muy curioso. Mejor dicho, vórtice convectivo, muy concentrado y cerrado.
De momento no se le ven cambios apreciables.............. Lo seguiremos con atención a ver cómo evoluciona. Llama la atención la forma que presenta, como banda convectiva paralela a la asociada a la ZCIT ::) A ver si comienza a cerrarse.......... Me sigue llamando la atención la borrasca al NW de Azores. Si la convección y circulación ciclónica cerrada consiguiera aislarse de la depresión en altura... Empezaríamos a dar pequeños saltos viendo un bichito 'anormal' :P Un hermanito del VINCE! ;D
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
:O* parece que por la costa africana aparece una nueva onda tropical. ¿qué os parece?
Démosle un voto de confianza, a ver si es capaz de entrar en el Caribe. :O*
Pues eso, compis.Alerta formación de un Ciclón Tropical
ira a la peninsula de yucatan?
el navy lo nombra como NONAME
se pone interesante el tema ::) ::) ::)
saludos
ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND
Según el modelo CMC...
¿iría camino de Nicaragua?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07090100/77.html
en estos momentos tiene vientos sostenidos de 70mph (110 km/h) a punto de ser un huracan ::) ::) ::)
saludos
TORMENTA TROPICAL FELIX ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 4A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM AST SABADO 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007
...FELIX ALCANZANDO FUERZA DE HURACAN...
A LAS 2 PM AST...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA
NORTE DE VENEZUELA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA.
CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE
ARUBA...BONAIRE Y CURAZAO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO
AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.
LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL ESTE Y CENTRO DEL MAR
CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 200 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FELIX
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.5
OESTE O COMO A 420 MILLAS...680 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...Y COMO A 535 MILLAS...865 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE
DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA.
FELIX SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30
KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL
CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...
FELIX PASARA CERCA O AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE ARUBA...BONAIRE Y
CURAZAO TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO.
INFORMACION OBTENIDA POR LOS INSTRUMENTOS DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES
DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...110
KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FELIX PUDIERA
TORNARSE EN HURACAN TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN EXPANDIDO Y
ACTUALMENTE SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS DEL
CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 999 MILIBARES...29.50 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE FELIX PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE
1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SUR CON POSIBLES
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS TOTALES DE 7 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE VENEZUELA Y LAS
ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS DE ARUBA...BONAIRE Y CURAZAO.
REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...12.5 NORTE...64.5 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MILIBARES.
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST.
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/AVILA
ay dios! otra vez a poner las tablas y recoger todo de la oficina? ESPERO QUE NO! >:(
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 011754
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL FELIX ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 4A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062007
200 PM AST SABADO 1 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007
...FELIX ALCANZANDO FUERZA DE HURACAN...
A LAS 2 PM AST...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA
NORTE DE VENEZUELA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA.
CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE
ARUBA...BONAIRE Y CURAZAO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO
AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.
LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL ESTE Y CENTRO DEL MAR
CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 200 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FELIX
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.5
OESTE O COMO A 420 MILLAS...680 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...Y COMO A 535 MILLAS...865 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE
DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA.
FELIX SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30
KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL
CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...
FELIX PASARA CERCA O AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE ARUBA...BONAIRE Y
CURAZAO TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO.
INFORMACION OBTENIDA POR LOS INSTRUMENTOS DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES
DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...110
KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FELIX PUDIERA
TORNARSE EN HURACAN TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN EXPANDIDO Y
ACTUALMENTE SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS DEL
CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 999 MILIBARES...29.50 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE FELIX PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE
1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO SUR CON POSIBLES
CANTIDADES MAXIMAS TOTALES DE 7 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE VENEZUELA Y LAS
ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS DE ARUBA...BONAIRE Y CURAZAO.
REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...12.5 NORTE...64.5 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MILIBARES.
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/AVILA
En el blog de Jeff hablan del efecto Beta, a que se refiere, alguien sabe?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 020304
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE. BASED ON THIS...
FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.
FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.
FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS. THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 12.7N 66.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.2N 69.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.7N 76.6W 90 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 15.4N 79.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 88.5W 110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
:o :o :o :o Wow en 1 hora y media subio sus vientos de 130 a 160 km/h en menos de 12 horas paso de tormenta tropical a Categoria 2 creo que ni con el Dean se vio eso ::)
En tan sólo 24 horas, WILMA pasó de Tormenta Tropical a Categoría 5. ;)
:o :o :o :o Wow en 1 hora y media subio sus vientos de 130 a 160 km/h en menos de 12 horas paso de tormenta tropical a Categoria 2 creo que ni con el Dean se vio eso ::)
Cada Huracán es muy diferente.
DEAN no tiene nada que ver con FELIX, ya que el primero se fue intesificándose más lentamente, mientras que el segundo lo ha hecho en un plis plas.
Ya expliqué, en el topic de DEAN, que WILMA pasó de Tormenta Tropical a Categoría 5, en muy poquitas horas.
(http://img170.imageshack.us/img170/5104/analisisatl3qz2.png)
En este radar ya se aprecia la formación del Ojo.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 020901
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93
KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION
AT ABOUT 0638Z. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER
LAYER OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 85 KT. WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM
OVERPASS AT 0619Z.
FELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH
STEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD
WESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
EVEN THE NOGAPS...AN EARLIER NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
AND BACK INTO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS PATHS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST AT 4-5 DAYS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON JUST HOW MUCH RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME.
ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE
OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES
BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY
UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 12.8N 68.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.2N 71.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.9N 75.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.6N 78.6W 115 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.3N 81.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 94.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Hombre, Ermu, pero por lo menos podemos hacer nuestros pronósticos, como hicimos con DEAN. A ver quién se lleva el gato al agua evil ;)
Pronto para el pronóstico...
depende para quien...
Para Belice y Yucatán, sí... (porque es lo esperado y queda más tiempo).
Para Honduras y Nicaragua, no... (porque sería la sorpresa y me temo que los cogería en gallumbos por lo rápido que se ha armado el huracán y el tiempo que les quedaría).
Sucedió con el Dean que de repente los modelos bailaban y lo mandaban a Cancún, como luego hacia el sur hacia Quintana Roo, sucesivamente...
Un detalle significativo, sería seguir el rumbo que colocan en los sucesivos partes...
oeste-noroeste (malo para Belice-Yucatán)
oeste (malo para Nicaragua- Honduras)
Los modelos tienden a subir la zona de golpeo.
Guau !! es precioso Felix !! no me puedo creer que ya sea Categoria 4!!!!!!!
Tracking Info For Hurricane Felix
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 08/31/07 11.8N 58.6W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/01/07 12.0N 59.9W 35 1008 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/01/07 12.4N 62.0W 40 1007 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/01/07 12.3N 63.6W 65 1001 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/01/07 12.7N 65.3W 70 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/02/07 12.7N 66.9W 75 993 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/02/07 12.8N 68.7W 100 984 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/02/07 13.2N 70.1W 105 980 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/02/07 13.6N 72.0W 140 956 Category 4 Hurricane
000
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY. FELIX
HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A
SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE
TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE. THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS
A SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES. I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING
BEHIND IT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY
3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AGAIN...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.6N 72.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 135 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 135 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Brutal esa discusion !!! juassssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comenta sobre el efecto estadio en el ojo de FElix :-X :-X foto ejemplo:
b]© Scott A. Dommin[/b]
(http://home.att.net/~typhoon1/240_33.jpg)
Topic explicando este efecto:
http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/index.php?topic=8537.0
Brutal esa discusion !!! juassssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comenta sobre el efecto estadio en el ojo de FElix :-X :-X foto ejemplo:
b]© Scott A. Dommin[/b]
(http://home.att.net/~typhoon1/240_33.jpg)
Topic explicando este efecto:
http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/index.php?topic=8537.0
Diosss...Seal! Eso es lo que me tiene a mí fascinada: "El ojo"! Parece que me hubieras leído el pensamiento, llevo tiempo queriendo figurarme cómo se vive eso desde dentro, así que gracias por poner estas fotos y enlaces!!! (llevaré babero)
Estamos ante el hermanísimo de WILMA...
WILMA
10/18 6 GMT 15.7 79.9 70 982 Tropical Storm
10/18 12 GMT 16.2 80.3 75 979 Category 1 Hurricane
10/18 18 GMT 16.6 81.1 85 975 Category 1 Hurricane
10/19 0 GMT 16.6 81.8 150 946 Category 4 Hurricane
10/19 6 GMT 17.0 82.2 170 892 Category 5 Hurricane
FELIX
21 GMT 09/01/07 12.7N 65.3W 70 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/02/07 12.7N 66.9W 75 993 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/02/07 12.8N 68.7W 100 984 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/02/07 13.2N 70.1W 105 980 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/02/07 13.6N 72.0W 140 956 Category 4 Hurricane
Se ha quedado cerca de igualar a WILMA.
Eran otros tiempos .... pero el precendente que hay es terrorifico .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fifi#Hurricane_FifiEstamos ante el hermanísimo de WILMA...
WILMA
10/18 6 GMT 15.7 79.9 70 982 Tropical Storm
10/18 12 GMT 16.2 80.3 75 979 Category 1 Hurricane
10/18 18 GMT 16.6 81.1 85 975 Category 1 Hurricane
10/19 0 GMT 16.6 81.8 150 946 Category 4 Hurricane
10/19 6 GMT 17.0 82.2 170 892 Category 5 Hurricane
FELIX
21 GMT 09/01/07 12.7N 65.3W 70 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/02/07 12.7N 66.9W 75 993 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/02/07 12.8N 68.7W 100 984 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/02/07 13.2N 70.1W 105 980 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/02/07 13.6N 72.0W 140 956 Category 4 Hurricane
Se ha quedado cerca de igualar a WILMA.
Pues yo juraria que ha habido algun caso mas como estos recientemente ??? quiero decir en los ultimos 3 o 4 años .
Parece que se esta haciendo " habitual"
Modifico ;D
Rita 2005
09/20 12 GMT 23.7 80.3 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
09/20 18 GMT 23.9 81.6 95 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09/21 0 GMT 24.1 82.7 110 967 Category 2 Hurricane
09/21 6 GMT 24.2 84.0 125 955 Category 3 Hurricane
09/21 12 GMT 24.2 85.2 135 941 Category 4 Hurricane
09/21 18 GMT 24.3 86.2 165 920 Category 5 Hurricane
Eran otros tiempos .... pero el precendente que hay es terrorifico .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fifi#Hurricane_FifiEstamos ante el hermanísimo de WILMA...
WILMA
10/18 6 GMT 15.7 79.9 70 982 Tropical Storm
10/18 12 GMT 16.2 80.3 75 979 Category 1 Hurricane
10/18 18 GMT 16.6 81.1 85 975 Category 1 Hurricane
10/19 0 GMT 16.6 81.8 150 946 Category 4 Hurricane
10/19 6 GMT 17.0 82.2 170 892 Category 5 Hurricane
FELIX
21 GMT 09/01/07 12.7N 65.3W 70 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/02/07 12.7N 66.9W 75 993 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/02/07 12.8N 68.7W 100 984 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/02/07 13.2N 70.1W 105 980 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/02/07 13.6N 72.0W 140 956 Category 4 Hurricane
Se ha quedado cerca de igualar a WILMA.
Pues yo juraria que ha habido algun caso mas como estos recientemente ??? quiero decir en los ultimos 3 o 4 años .
Parece que se esta haciendo " habitual"
Modifico ;D
Rita 2005
09/20 12 GMT 23.7 80.3 80 985 Category 1 Hurricane
09/20 18 GMT 23.9 81.6 95 975 Category 2 Hurricane
09/21 0 GMT 24.1 82.7 110 967 Category 2 Hurricane
09/21 6 GMT 24.2 84.0 125 955 Category 3 Hurricane
09/21 12 GMT 24.2 85.2 135 941 Category 4 Hurricane
09/21 18 GMT 24.3 86.2 165 920 Category 5 Hurricane
Ivan 2004
09/05 0 GMT 9.3 41.4 70 991 Tropical Storm
09/05 6 GMT 9.5 43.4 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
09/05 12 GMT 9.8 45.1 95 977 Category 2 Hurricane
09/05 18 GMT 10.2 46.8 125 955 Category 3 Hurricane
09/06 0 GMT 10.6 48.5 130 948 Category 4 Hurricane
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
00Z. GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW. THE MAJOR
MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.9N 73.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W 145 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W 145 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W 135 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Dean llegó a 165 mph y 906 mb... a ver si Felix le bate. :P
MAXIMA POTENCIA !!!! impresionante Felix y temporada, llevamos 2 de 2 !!! 2 huracanes, 2 máxima potencia !!!!!!!!!!! :o :o
Esperemos que Honduras esté preparada :(
(http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/5869/goes02452007246w4z4h9kk9.jpg)
WILMA (Octubre de 2005)...
10/18 6 GMT 15.7 79.9 70 982 Tropical Storm
10/18 12 GMT 16.2 80.3 75 979 Category 1 Hurricane
10/18 18 GMT 16.6 81.1 85 975 Category 1 Hurricane
10/19 0 GMT 16.6 81.8 150 946 Category 4 Hurricane
10/19 6 GMT 17.0 82.2 170 892 Category 5 Hurricane
Este bichejo se sigue desviando, entra directo en Honduras asi, ojala tomen las medidas necesarias ahi :-\ :-\ :-\
(http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7416/085525wsmco7.gif)[/URL]
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030901
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931
MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT
SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF
280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN
BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES
THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE
RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH
THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY
COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF
TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT
WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND
COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT
FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.1N 75.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 78.7W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W 125 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 95.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
buenos dias, que pena que vaya hacia Honduras, mi cuñada vive alli, en la costa, :-[ justamente tenia previsto volver a europa la proxima semana, intentare comunicarme con ella :P, y que saque fotos, fotos y mas fotos, sera un testimonio de primera mano, a ver que caza consigue, en cuanto tenga algo lo colgare aqui, buenos dias a todos :)
Fijaros en la imagen en modo visible que adjunto, de las 12:15 UTC. Parece que el ojo de FELIX se ha cerrado en niveles bajos de la estructura del huracán. Esto me huele a ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo. Me huele a que está habiendo cambios en el núcleo de FELIX. No sé cómo interpretar estos cambios... Por un lado podría estar sufriendo algún síntoma de debilitamiento, pero puede que sea lo contrario ???
(http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/7210/gh5felixlu8.jpg)
Fuente de la imagen: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 031433
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD
BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT
AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON
VISUAL IMAGERY. SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE
PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX. HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN
TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH
RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. CLEARLY IF
FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE
MUCH WEAKER. INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...
CONTINUES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO
THAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
UNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.
DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.3N 77.8W 140 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W 145 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Buen apunte pedro, te has adelantado a esa discusion :D1que flipas pos no es pa tanto :P :P es pa massssssss 8) ah la foto genial
Foto de FElix visible:
(http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/9293/felixls0.jpg)
Flipo con las imágenes de estos monstruos :-X
Interesantísimo el blog de hoy de Jeff MAsters, en el que habla de la violencia del ojo de Felix y del "efecto estadio" que se encontraron los cazahuracanes en él. De milagro salieron vivos.
Increible ! apenas a 700 Km de las costas de Nicaragua y pùdiendo tocar Felix el Norte del pais en pocas horas .... mirad essto http://www.ineter.gob.ni/pronostico-web/pronostico.htm , como si nada
Pinchar en el menu de la izquierda ( arriba) pronostico nacional
:</O :</O :</O
.
Hurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 032100
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR
WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT
COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE
WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.
HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY
WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA
SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER
CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17
KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Veo importante citar un comentario del boss Jeff Masters a cuenta de la explosión de FELIX de ayer... :o :o :o No tiene desperdicio:CitarHurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.
Lo subrayado en rojo es lo que más miga tiene... O sea, que éste ha superado a WILMA? ??? Hmmm... Tengo dudas ¿eh? Después de los datos aportados ayer por Ermu y esta mañana por Vigorro... ::)
Veo importante citar un comentario del boss Jeff Masters a cuenta de la explosión de FELIX de ayer... :o :o :o No tiene desperdicio:CitarHurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.
Lo subrayado en rojo es lo que más miga tiene... O sea, que éste ha superado a WILMA? ??? Hmmm... Tengo dudas ¿eh? Después de los datos aportados ayer por Ermu y esta mañana por Vigorro... ::)
WILMA
10/17 0 GMT 17.4 79.6 35 1001 Tropical Depression
10/17 6 GMT 16.9 79.6 40 1000 Tropical Storm
10/17 12 GMT 16.3 79.7 45 999 Tropical Storm
10/17 18 GMT 16.0 79.8 50 997 Tropical Storm
10/18 0 GMT 15.8 79.9 65 988 Tropical Storm
10/18 6 GMT 15.7 79.9 70 982 Tropical Storm
10/18 12 GMT 16.2 80.3 75 979 Category 1 Hurricane
10/18 18 GMT 16.6 81.1 85 975 Category 1 Hurricane
10/19 0 GMT 16.6 81.8 150 946 Category 4 Hurricane
10/19 6 GMT 17.0 82.2 170 892 Category 5 Hurricane
BUENOALMENOS LA LIBRAMOS A QUI EN CHETUMAL, QUINTANA ROO, PUES GRACIAS A DIOS ESTE FELIX NO NOS TOCA, QUE BUENO, PUES A SALIMOS DE DEAN YA SERAI EL COLMO, DEVERAS QUE DIOS NOS CUIDA SALUDOS
Parece que ha cogido algo de fuerza.
(http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/1057/goes07152007247cr1wqieu9.jpg)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 040900
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT...FELIX HAS AGAIN
STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT...HAS FALLEN TO 939 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 148 KT...CORRESPONDING TO 133 KT AT
THE SURFACE...AND A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LOW-LAYER
MEAN WIND OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE WAS 132 KT. ANOTHER DROPSONDE
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 147 KT...BUT THAT IS NOT LIKELY
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE...INCLUDING
IN THE FEW IMAGES SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 07Z. SINCE THE
PRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE INDICATING
STRENGTHENING...AND GIVEN THAT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE APPROACHING 7.0...FELIX COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
FELIX CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14. THE EYE IS
ONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS FROM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST WITH A SLOW BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GFS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THOSE MODELS IN LATER
BRINGING FELIX OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN
THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT IS A
LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF FELIX. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE...THAT THIS WILL NOT BE JUST A COASTAL EVENT. VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR
WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS OR DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING'S LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.3N 82.5W 135 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 14.3N 84.5W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 86.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/1800Z 14.9N 88.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 90.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0600Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
BOLETIN
HURACAN FELIX ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT MARTES 4 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007
...EL EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN FELIX TOCA TIERRA EN EL
EXTREMO NORESTE DE NICARAGUA CON FUERZA DE CATEGORIA CINCO...
ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA NICARAGUA DESDE PUERTO
CABEZAS AL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA....Y PARA
HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD
TIENEN QUE ESTAR COMPLETADOS.
ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA HONDURAS AL OESTE
DE LIMON...PARA LA COSTA DEL CARIBE DE GUATEMALA...Y PARA TODA LA
COSTA DE BELIZE.
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA...PARA NICARAGUA DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO CABEZAS HASTA
PRINZAPOLKA...Y PARA HONDURAS DESDE EL OESTE DE LIMON HASTA EL BORDE
ENTRE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA. UN
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS
24 HORAS.
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO CABEZAS HASTA
PRINZAPOLKA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 800 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN FELIX ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.2 OESTE O
MUY CERCA DE PUNTA GORDA NICARAGUA Y COMO A 10 MILLAS...15
KILOMETROS...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS.
FELIX SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26
KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN UNA TRAYECTORIA AL
OESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE
EL CENTRO DE FELIX LLEGUE A TIERRA EN EL NORESTE DE NICARAGUA SOBRE
TIERRA HOY Y EN HONDURAS MAS TARDE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE.
REPORTES ANTERIORES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA AEREA
DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICO QUE LOS
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y AHORA ESTAN CERCA DE 160
MPH...260 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. FELIX ES UN
HURACAN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. EL HURACAN SE DEBILITARA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA A
TIERRA SOBRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS HOY.
LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45
MILLAS..75 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185
KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION FUE DE 935
MILIBARES...27.61 PULGADAS.
ES POSIBLE MAREJADAS CICLONICAS EN EXCESO DE 18 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA CON POSIBLES OLAS PELIGROSAS Y
PODEROSAS AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA.
SE ESPERA QUE FELIX PUEDA PRODUCIR DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA A
TRAVES DEL NORTE DE NICARAGUA Y GRAN PARTE DE HONDURAS...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 20 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN
PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE
AMENAZAN VIDAS Y PROPIEDADES.
REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM EDT...14.3 NORTE...83.2 OESTE.
SE MUEVE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS...160 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...935 MILIBARAS.
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
Los últimos datos desde Puerto Cabezas son 23ºC y viento del WNW a 45 km/h ??? ??? ??? Ya me extraña a mí, y son datos de hoy día 4...Para mi que la estación que recoge los datos esta completamente chiflada. Ahora marca 23ºC y calma ???
Por lo menos el tiempo que consiga estar intacta la web-cam. ¿Va a pasar "lo gordo" por allí ya mismo? :o
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
FELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140
KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT
AT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT
AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3. CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
ARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3
HOURS SINCE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY
THE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL.
THE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.3N 83.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.3N 85.7W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT41 KNHC 042038
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
FELIX CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER LAND AND THE CENTER IS NOW APPROACHING
THE HONDURAS BORDER. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED QUITE WELL
ORGANIZED UP TO THIS TIME AND THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPRESSIVE
SPIRAL BANDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING SOME FORMIDABLE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. MY INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
HONDURAS' HIGH MOUNTAINS. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 36-48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD WOBBLE EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION HAS
BEEN GENERALLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/12. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND SO
DOES THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.
THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE
STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25
INCHES. THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 14.2N 85.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 14.3N 86.7W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/1800Z 14.6N 88.9W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 15.0N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT41 KNHC 050248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
FELIX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. THE CENTER HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...WITH
THE SITUATION BEING COMPLICATED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE
STORM POSSIBLY MOVING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL
PORTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/10. FELIX SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN 24-36 HR.
THE MAJOR CONCERN IS NOW THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE
STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25
INCHES. THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.1N 85.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.1N 87.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.3N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 050836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007
SURFACE DATA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
FELIX IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND IS
DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE CENTER...IF IT
STILL EXISTS..IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. FELIX IS KEPT AS A 25
KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THAT THE
REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAND AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
FELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINS PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.0N 87.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 13.8N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
A la espera del recuento y deseando que sea lo menos malo posible...
Parece ser que todos los modelos la han pifiado en cuanto a la trayectoria a excepción del GFDL (por lo menos, creo que recordar que acertó desde hace más de 72 horas, no recuerdo si más allá de ese tiempo andaba fino...
Y el modelo de vientos del CMC también marco esa trayectoria, en este caso sí que recuerdo que por lo menos 5 días antes...
¿algún comentario a esto??
THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED INLAND NEAR THE BORDER OF
NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
THAT COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REDEVLOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
Preciosas imágenes :o :o :o
Y con actividad eléctrica...................................... Tenía entendido que los ciclones tropicales tenían escasa o nula actividad eléctrica, pero no parece que sea del todo cierto.............
Que coraje, >:( >:( >:( eso se podria evitar con un buen sistema de proteccion civil, mucha gente arriesga su vida a lo pende.... por no querer dejar su casa sola, pero no entienden que es mas importante proteger su vida que sus bienes materiales. Aqui en Cancun los sacan con policia si no quieren irse a un refugio. >:( >:(
Hola LOVEGIRL...
A mi entender el tema de las evacuaciones tiene 2 vertientes:
La humana y la política (socio-económica).
La humana, la podemos ver no sólo con los huracanes, también sucede en el caso de alerta de volcanes, o en el caso de incendios forestales graves, donde la gente se niega a abandonar sus casas...
Lamentablemente en muchos casos eso significa la muerte...
Supongo que el modo de proceder humano correspondería a la fórmula:
bienes/percepción del riesgo...
los bienes son tangibles y puede ser que cuando se dé el aviso de huracán, volcán, etc, la percepción de riesgo no se tiene elevada hasta que esto se produce y puediera ser ya demasíado tarde para uno mismo...
Las autoridades correspondientes tienen que proceder a que la evacuación sea obligada...
En el caso de los miskitos en Nicaragua, me gustaría saber si fueron alertados y se les dieron opciones de seguridad que no atendieron, o si no hubo una alerta en condiciones (lo desconozco).
La vertiente política (socio-económica) de las evacuaciones, pasa en primer lugar por tener la certeza de que el acontecimiento se va a producir, si una evacuación descontrolada pudiera ser peor que el acontecimiento en sí y, si en caso de error en la alerta y estas fuesen frecuentes, sería superior el coste económico por dejar de atender las actividades diarias, más el efecto que se produciría en la población al ver que no se ha correspondido el riesgo con la alerta...
y esto vale para terremotos (es fácil errar en su pronóstico), volcanes (es un poco más facil acertar), huracanes, etc...
Bueno lo pongo en el caso de Cancun o mas bien el estado Quintana Roo, hay mucha diferencia de lo que sucede aqui que el resto del pais o de latino america. Dean tocando el estado con categoria 5 no dejo ni un solo muerto, a diferencia de lo que sucedio en veracruz. Influye mucho tambien la experiencia, despues del Huracan Gilberto Quintana Roo no volvio a ser el mismo. Aunque todo se remonta un poco mas atras, con el huracan Janet en el 55 que murieron muchisimas personas todo por falta de informacion. Y eso que no es a gran escala como en otros paises, en el Gilberto solo murieron 17 personas aqui en la ciudad.
Y lo que dices JK5 a veces sobre todo aqui en el estado prefieren la perdida economica que la de vidas, si lees los comentarios del huracan Felix y Dean de los que somos de aqui de cancun te daras cuenta, en el estado desde que ambos huracanes se encontraban atras de las antillas menores a pesar de que estaban a mas de 3 mil km ya decretaban en el estado alerta azul, y daban informes cada 24 horas, una vez decretada la alerta amarilla, mas o menos a la altura de colombia empiezan a dar avisos x radio y tv cada 6 horas.
Para Dean, habian 100 mil turistas en todo el estado, la mayoria en Cancun y Cozumel, desde 3 dias antes aun sin saber donde iba a tocar exactamente, trataron de evacuar a la mayoria posible de turistas y regresarlos a sus lugares de origen y eso causo perdidas economicas garrafales. Y a pesar de que aqui en cancun Dean no se sintio ni siquiera como tormenta tropical, estuvo muy leve, sacaron a la gente de sus hogares (las que viven en zona de riezgo) para mandarlos a refugios. Con Felix no se llego a ese grado por que lo de los refugios se hace 24 horas antes, pero si se hicieron muchos preparativos y la secretaria de marina, prohibe la navegacion.
Creo que cuando el gobierno de Centro america se ponga realmente las pilas dejara de haber tanto muerto, pense que habian aprendido la leccion con Mitch pero pues no fue asi, por desgracia prefieren ahorrar dinero que vidas >:(
Que coraje, >:( >:( >:( eso se podria evitar con un buen sistema de proteccion civil, mucha gente arriesga su vida a lo pende.... por no querer dejar su casa sola, pero no entienden que es mas importante proteger su vida que sus bienes materiales. Aqui en Cancun los sacan con policia si no quieren irse a un refugio. >:( >:(
Ya lo comentaba yo el otro dia... es la desinformacion en estos paises lo peor de todo... un dato: mas de la mitad de los fallecidos son pescadores que fueron sorprendidos en la mar por Felix... ¿como se puede estar faenando si llega un categoria 5?... facil: por que no estaban avisados...
Preciosas imágenes :o :o :o:<<O