Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Octubre 12, 2014, 19:19:24 pm
-
Hora local de Caracas 12:45pm
Todas las condiciones y propiedades para tener la DT-08L.
Aprecio circulación en superficie al Este de Guadalupe (LLC) y circulación aún mejor definida en los 850 hPa:
Superficie
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/eyestormeric3027/Image_000013.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/eyestormeric3027/Image_000013.jpg.html)
850 hPa
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/eyestormeric3027/Image_000012.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/eyestormeric3027/Image_000012.jpg.html)
Sin problemas de obstaculos por cizalladura. El aire seco al Norte no le afecta:
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/eyestormeric3027/Image_000005.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/eyestormeric3027/Image_000005.jpg.html)
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/eyestormeric3027/Image_000006.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/eyestormeric3027/Image_000006.jpg.html)
Sinópticamente tenemos la DT-08L, veremos el parte del CNH próximamente:
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/eyestormeric3027/a.jpg) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/eyestormeric3027/a.jpg.html)
(http://i1343.photobucket.com/albums/o783/eyestormeric3/eyestormeric3027/vis-animated.gif) (http://s1343.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric3/media/eyestormeric3027/vis-animated.gif.html)
Un avión cazahuracanes esta sobrevolando el sistema, esperemos confirmaciones
-
Hora local de Caracas 1:45pm
Sin pasar por GO ni cobrar los 200
Gonzalo ha sido declarada por el CNH de Miami
SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Avisos de Tormenta Tropical
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
Advertencia de tormenta tropical
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
-
Vaya sorpresa que nos ha dado!
Además... apunta maneras. Podrá ser el 5º huracán de la temporada ;D
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-PyGvLgarK9s/VDrWDRUVIUI/AAAAAAAAB60/kpEg08woIOA/w720-h480-no/gonzalo.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 8:50pm
El sexto Pedro, fay se te adelantó ;D ;D
Se intensifica un poco. Campo de vientos fuertes sobre las Antillas Menores Norte, principalmente cuadrante Norte del vórtice. Es una tormenta desorganizada aún, pero numerosos nucleos convectivos alrededor del centro:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/f_zpsf980502c.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/f_zpsf980502c.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/e_zps23abfc78.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/e_zps23abfc78.gif.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 8:00 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...16.4 NORTE 59.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 115 MI...180 KM AL ESTE DE GUADALUPE
CERCA DE 145 MI...235 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE ANTIGUA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 270 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARES...29.59 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* GUADALUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
-
Sigue fortaleciéndose y está dejando intensos vientos a su paso... no tardará en ser huracán.
Tropical storm Gonzalo directly hit Antigua | Oct 13, 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E9PCMM74cg#ws)
Tropical storm Gonzalo directly hit Antigua | Oct 13, 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_W19UgVOi8#)
-
000
WTNT43 KNHC 131452
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
this morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along
with reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern
quadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the
Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained
wind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the
intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft
radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed
over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.
The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. Gonzalo is expected to
continue to move west-northwestward today, and turn toward the
northwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser
Antilles. After that, the mid-level ridge to the north of Gonzalo is
expected to break down as a strong mid-latitude trough moving off of
the U.S. east and southeast coasts approaches the area north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 72 hours. The weakening ridge
will allow Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and then turn toward
the northeast and accelerate on Days 4 and 5. The latest NHC model
guidance appears to have stabilized and has no longer made any
eastward shifts, so the official forecast track is just an update of
the previous advisory track, which lies close to a blend of the GFEX
and TVCN consensus models.
The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has continued to improve, and
radar data from Guadeloupe indicates that a small but intense vortex
may have passed over Antigua earlier this morning. Overall, the
improvement in the horizontal and vertical structure of Gonzalo the
past several hours, along with weak vertical wind shear and SSTs
greater than 29C, should allow for at least steady strengthening of
the cyclone through the next 96 hours. By 120 hours, southwesterly
wind shear of around 20 kt is expected to affect Gonzalo, which
should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and the SHIPS intensity model.
Gonzalo is forecast to be reaching hurricane strength by the time it
passes near the British Virgin Islands, and so a hurricane warning
is in effect there. Although hurricane conditions are not currently
expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the
left of the forecast track, or a more rapid strengthening of the
storm, would result in the need to extend the hurricane warning into
those areas. Interests in the hurricane watch area are reminded that
the watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...and in this
case within 24 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 17.2N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.0N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.8N 66.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.4N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 24.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 27.4N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 31.7N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-hKAMQ9sfIvs/VDv7Mo23SpI/AAAAAAAAB84/jZs55veKv0Y/w720-h480-no/gonza.gif)
-
Hora local de Caracas 1:30pm
Sigue intensificándose
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Vórtice ubicado al Oeste de Barbuda, se mueve mas al Norte de lo previsto:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/a_zpsb273c2c2.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/a_zpsb273c2c2.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/b_zps84f531db.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/b_zps84f531db.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/c_zps4973beb3.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/c_zps4973beb3.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/d_zpsb691d1a9.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/d_zpsb691d1a9.gif.html)
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* SAN MAARTIN
* SAN MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES Y CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA Y ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS Y NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES Y CULEBRA
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
-
Ya lo tenemos como huracán... y subiendo...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 140242
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
The eye of Gonzalo moved just north of St. Maarten and over Anguilla
earlier this evening. St. Maarten reported a peak 2-minute wind of
55 kt and a gust of 65 kt with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Data
from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier indicated peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of around 85 kt, which support an intensity of 75
kt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by the latest
Dvorak classification of T4.5 from TAFB. The next Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 0600 UTC.
Gonzalo appears to be poised to intensify, perhaps rapidly, in the
next day or so. The inner-core features are quite distinct in
recent microwave imagery and a warm spot has recently developed in
infrared imagery with a more symmetric cloud pattern. Given these
trends and the overall favorable environment, the intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and is close to the the SHIPS
model on the high end of the intensity guidance through the first 48
hours, showing Gonzalo becoming a major hurricane in about 36 hours.
As Gonzalo gains latitude later in the period, southwesterly shear
ahead of a mid-latitude trough and cooler SSTs should result in
gradual weakening.
The eye of Gonzalo is now evident in WSR-88D imagery from San Juan,
and the initial motion estimate is 315/10. Overall, the track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will
move northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and
then accelerate northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude
trough moving off the east coast of the United States. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted a little to the right in the first
48 hours due to the initial position and motion and an adjustment
and toward the latest multi-model consensus. Beyond that time, the
new NHC forecast is largely and update of the previous one and is
close to but a bit slower than a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
especially by day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 18.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 23.1N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 24.5N 68.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 27.3N 67.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 31.5N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 37.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
-
Por poco no ha alcanzado la categoría 3,,, pero parece que ya ha perdido la oportunidad de hacerlo...
-
Hora local de Caracas 12:30pm
Alejándose del Caribe. Se ubica al NE de Puerto Rico:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/4_zps3874ee85.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/4_zps3874ee85.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/3_zps89a293a4.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/3_zps89a293a4.jpg.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.3 NORTE 65.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 390 MI...625 KM AL ESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND
CERCA DE 830 MI...1335 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 315 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...973 MILIBARES...28.74 PULGADAS
-
Por poco no ha alcanzado la categoría 3,,, pero parece que ya ha perdido la oportunidad de hacerlo...
Pues te equivocas Pedro, categoria 3 y se prevee que alcance la categoria 4! :o :D1
000
WTNT43 KNHC 142041
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier
today indicated flight-level and SFMR wind data that were just below
the threshold of a major hurricane. On the last flight leg, the
aircraft measured a central pressure of 971 mb, which was down 2 mb
from what was measured at the start of the mission. The eye had also
contracted from a 20 nmi diameter down to about 16 nmi on the last
report. Recent data from the NOAA Doppler radar in San Juan indicate
that the eye has contracted to about 15 nmi at an altitude of about
36,000 ft since the aircraft departed a few hours ago, signifying
that the eye diameter is likely smaller at lower altitudes. In
addition, satellite imagery indicates that the eye has cleared out
and warmed while cloud tops have cooled significantly in the
surrounding eyewall. Based on the trends noted in the radar and
satellite data, the intensity has been increased to 100 kt, which is
supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T5.4/100 kt.
Gonzalo continues to move steadily northwestward with a motion of
320/11 kt. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed and remains is
in excellent agreement on Gonzalo moving steadily northwestward
around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north
during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, a deep mid-tropospheric
trough and cold front are expected to move eastward across the
Bahamas and weaken the western portion of the ridge. This should
allow the cyclone to turn slowly northward, and then accelerate
northeastward by 72 hours ahead of the aforementioned trough and
front, with the hurricane potentially threatening Bermuda on Day 3.
Gonzalo is expected to merge with the cold front or become
extratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is just an update
of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the
GFEX and TVCA consensus models.
With the eye of Gonzalo having contracted and become more distinct
in satellite, radar, and recon wind data, the system appears primed
for intensification into a category 4 hurricane later tonight or
on Wednesday. Sea-surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone are
sufficiently warm enough at 28C-28.5C to support a category 4
hurricane through at least the next 36 hours. The global models
continue to indicate that the best vertical shear conditions and 200
mb upper-level outflow pattern are expected to occur on Wednesday
and continue into Thursday morning. Afterwards, eyewall cycles and
possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to cause
some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing vertical
wind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough is expected to
induce weakening. By 120 hours, Gonzalo will be over sub-20C SSTs in
the North Atlantic and experiencing vertical shear of 50-60 kt,
which should result in the cyclone becoming an extratropical low.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
remains above all of the available intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 21.2N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.5N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 24.0N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 27.2N 68.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 32.0N 65.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 39.9N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 49.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
(http://i59.tinypic.com/2ppgb53.gif)
(http://i57.tinypic.com/2wf62l0.gif)
-
Ya veo! :o :o :o
000
WTNT43 KNHC 150256
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Gonzalo has continued to strengthen. The plane
reported maximum flight-level of 125 kt in the northeastern
quadrant and peak SFMR winds of 108 kt. The minimum surface pressure
also has fallen about 17 mb during the last 9 hours to 954 mb.
Satellite images show that the eye has warmed and shrunk to a
diameter of 10 n mi while the inner core has generally become better
defined. However, Gonzalo has been maintaining an asymmetric
distribution of convection, presumably due to around 15 kt of
south-southwesterly shear of affecting the cyclone according to the
latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses. A blend of the flight-
level and SFMR wind data is used to raise the initial intensity of
110 kt.
Water vapor imagery and cloud-tracked wind vectors show an upper-
level trough between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. responsible
for the south-southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, but the shear should
not be enough to prevent additional intensification from taking
place over warm waters of 28-29 deg C during the next day or so.
At some point during this time, fluctuations in strength due to
difficult-to-forecast inner core evolution are probable. By 72
hours, a significant increase in south-southwesterly shear should
induce a considerable weakening trend. Increasing baroclinicity in
the near-storm environment, much cooler waters, and drier and more
stable air wrapping around the hurricane's circulation should result
in extratropical transition by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one, and is near or higher than the
highest intensity guidance (SHIPS/LGEM) through 36 hours but close
to the multi-model consensus after that.
Gonzalo has continued to move on a northwestward course, or 320/11,
though the center has wobbled a bit toward the left during the
last couple of hours. The hurricane should gradually turn north-
northwestward and then northward and slow down as it moves around
the western periphery of an eastward-shifting central Atlantic ridge
during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours, Gonzalo should
encounter a deep-layer south-southwesterly flow associated with a
potent mid-latitude trough swinging out of the east-central United
States. This flow pattern should turn Gonzalo north-northeastward
with increasing forward speed. Although the track guidance is
tightly clustered through 72 hours, there is still some along-track
spread in the model solutions, with the ECMWF depicting a weaker and
much-slower-moving cyclone. The new NHC forecast places less weight
on the ECMWF, owing to Gonzalo's current intensity. The official NHC
forecast lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and
to the right of the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 22.2N 66.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.9N 68.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 68.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 28.5N 67.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.7N 64.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 45.1N 56.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 52.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
-
Pues ahi sigue, a las puertas de la categoria 4. Sigue con esos 110 kt y una presion de 954 mb. Primera imagen visible del sistema ;)
(http://i60.tinypic.com/ifq4hx.gif)
-
Pues ya lo tenemos en la categoria 4, como se esperaba :o :o :D1 La ultima imagen de satelite muestra como el radio del ojo se ha estrechado ;)
(http://i58.tinypic.com/mhu90l.gif)
-
Algunos modelos incluso lo fortalecen más antes de llegar a Bermuda, después de un fugaz debilitamiento, que seguro que es a causa de ciclos de reemplazamiento del ojo.
-
Hora local de Caracas 12:45pm
Según la MIMIC ha iniciado una fase ERC o reemplazo del ojo, por lo que debería perder fuerza y luego volver a la CAT4, la MIMIC:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/y_zpsdc184c3b.jpg) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/y_zpsdc184c3b.jpg.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/x_zpsoxt3uh5m.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/x_zpsoxt3uh5m.gif.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.5 NORTE 68.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 640 MI...1025 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 320 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...949 MILIBARES...28.03 PULGADAS
-
Tal como bien previeron ayer algunos modelos, tras el CRO, Gonzalo ha cogido intensidad de nuevo, recuperando la categoría 4 y mostrando una imagen impresionante, ahora que ya amanece en la zona en la que se encuentra...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0Ekke0IIAArID_.jpg:large)
-
Hora local de Caracas 7:15pm
GHU #Gonzalo CAT4 mide 340 km de ø en la convección y 730km en el outflow. Pobre Bermuda:
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/d_zpse203e802.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/d_zpse203e802.gif.html)
(http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e332/eyestormeric4/c_zpsbk6cnvz0.gif) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric4/media/c_zpsbk6cnvz0.gif.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.1 NORTE 68.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 415 MI...665 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...942 MILIBARES...27.82 PULGADAS
"Hoy amanecí con los sintomas del "chikungunya", segunda vez en tres meses. Aprovecho un lapso en el quebranto para distraerme y hacerle la guerra a los dolores de articulaciones, así que no me ven por aquí es porque estaré en cama si se agudizan...
-
Es muy probable que Gonzalo pase sobre Bermuda a últimas horas de hoy. Dejo una webcam para seguirlo en directo, quien pueda ;)
http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ (http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/)
-
Va para allá a toda máquina. Las bandas exteriores de lluvia están comenzando a afectar a la isla, con cielos cubiertos y vientos ya intensos... No os perdáis la webcam, que lo va a pillar todo en directo! :o :o :o :o
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-LFQw_pCsyUA/VEEXE1kiS4I/AAAAAAAAB-U/tlWokvd2OBw/w720-h480-no/gonzaa.gif)
-
Aspecto actual y captura de la webcam...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0Jt0T1CQAAaA-i.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0Jtys4CQAAcTeL.png)
-
El tiempo allí, cada vez más chungo.......... :-X
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0KVsCcCQAEBmBT.png:large)
Gonzalo ha bajado sus vientos a 110 KT, unos 200 km/h... que no son moco de pavo.
-
Se va acercando............................. Visión del radar de Bermuda, Servicio Meteorológico.
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/probable-dt-08l-90l-rdp/?action=dlattach;attach=28098;image)
-
Última del VIS...................
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0KmZPECIAAe3DU.png:large)
-
Más y más cerca....... ya se ve el ojo completo a través del radar del Servicio Meteorológico de Bermuda... :o :o :o :o :o
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/probable-dt-08l-90l-rdp/?action=dlattach;attach=28100;image)
Y los efectos en tierra.....
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-ycUbn-OFpaA/VEFk4qi1q-I/AAAAAAAAB_o/6FSSlfS6nTI/w814-h496-no/jmytmy.png)
-
Dentro de nada ya no se va a poder ver... nada...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0K7GaYIUAIlbPw.png)
-
NOAA Satellites @NOAASatellites 3 hHace 3 horas
Hurricane #Gonzalo from @NASANPP's VIIRS at 3:02 am EDT (via RAMMB/CIRA). Latest forecast: http://go.usa.gov/fN9T (http://go.usa.gov/fN9T)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0KNwMjIgAAw9rZ.png:large)
-
Recordemos la webcam... que no tiene desperdicio... se están desatando todos los infiernos en Bermuda :o :o :o :o :o (:B) (:B) (:B)
http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ (http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/)
-
En este momento ya no se veía nada :o :o :o :o :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0LEtrJCQAAnGo3.png:large)
-
Lo estoy viendo, pero mejor en streamer desde youtube.
Hurricane Gonzalo -- Bermuda -- Oct 17th, 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsKPEx3fgHU#ws)
-
BRUTAL la webcam, pone los pelos de punta (:B)
-
Buenas, ya solo faltan las palomitas!!!!. :O* :O* Brutal..... Madre mía, con qué fuerza se mueven las palmeras!!!. Telita!!! evil evil
-
Boya meteo cerca de Bermuda...
Met Uy Estacion bcp @Estacion_bcp 1 hhace 1 hora
Boya de #Bermuda midio una presion de 952Mb y la bajada del viento a 20 km/h por el paso del ojo del Huracan #Gonzalo
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0MVt5tCMAE5ZrR.png:large)
(http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/seguimiento-de-huracanes-tifones-y-ciclones-en-el-mundo/probable-dt-08l-90l-rdp/?action=dlattach;attach=28102;image)
-
Y después de estar en el ojo un rato, vuelta al ataque del vendaval, pero con vientos del norte...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0MqR1hCEAEWRHM.png)
Último parte del CNH:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 180257
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014
Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of
Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,
various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports
from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in
Devonshire Parish. The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on
recent ADT values of 97 kt.
Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or
030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model
guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the
northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located
off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be
passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong
post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.
Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to
gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by
more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs
by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after
that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of
Newfoundland.
The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 32.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 35.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 41.2N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 47.0N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 57.0N 11.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
El impacto de Gonzalo en Bermuda, por el National Weather Service Columbia... 8)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0OOkVeCAAAqk0g.png:large)
-
Palabras escalofriantes las que un meteorólogo escribe desde Bermuda.
I never thought I would say this... but my nerves are settling more now that we are sustained 50 gusting 70 knots! I now know my comfort level breaks at 115 knot gusts... the 125 knot really was on the edge. Thank goodness BWS is in an old US Navy Base building with steal barb reinforced block walls.
01:40 am wind data:
Commissioner's Point: 61 gust 92 knots (70 gust 106 mph)
Causeway: 51 gust 65 knots (59 gust 75 mph)
St. David's: 46 gust 71 knots (53 gust 82 mph)
"Nunca pensé que diría esto... pero mis nervios se están acrecentando más ahora que tenemos vientos de 50 con rachas de 70 nudos! Ahora sé que mi nivel de confort se rompe con las rachas de 115 nudos... y los 125 estuvieron realmente al límite. Gracias a Dios, el Centro Meteorológico se ubica en una vieja Base de la US Navy, con paredes reforzadas"
Solamente recordar lo impresionante ( y diría también ACOJONANTE ) que tiene que ser vivir lo que se vivió anoche en Bermuda... estamos hablando de varias horas con un viento por encima de 150 km/h, lluvia horizontal a mares, y unas olas increíbles en el mar; después, la calma del ojo; y poco después, otro viaje de vientos huracanados hasta que se aleja definitivamente...
-
El equipo que ha permanecido en el centro haciendo su trabajo:
(https://scontent-b-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/1619276_364773833685517_3968298836246634727_n.jpg?oh=e7a60ba48070dda91da97668295dfd8f&oe=54C06E27)
Operational crew at BWS - foreground blue shirt Meteorologist Jeff Torgerson, purple shirt is Meteorologist Rob Howlett and red shirt is Meteorologist Fred Byrley on the phone. In the background is Meteorological Technician Matt Little on the right and BWS Deputy Director James Dodgson.
https://www.facebook.com/BermudaWeatherService (https://www.facebook.com/BermudaWeatherService)
-
la webcam esta ko, anoche la estuve viendo un ratillo y no se veia nadaa del viento que habia, pero ya hoy está KO :o
-
Hay vídeos brutales....
AFTERMATH: Hurricane Gonzalo Landfall & Hits Bermuda - Tropical Storm 10/17/2014 [Raw Footage] (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbrezD1_bwY#ws)
Hurricane Gonzalo Pounds Bermuda - 10/17/2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSssrEEUjF0#ws)
Incredible Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall in #Bermuda | Oct 17, 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDzjU3n5lHs#ws)
Hurricane Gonzalo Grotto Bay Resort Bermuda 10-17-2014 2:30 PM ET (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RL9h4BPwXmE#noexternalembed-ws)
Scary Hurricane Gonzalo Night in Bermuda | Oct 17, 2014 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtNj-1TympM#)
-
Llegada de los restos de Gonzalo a las Islas Británicas...
Gonzalo 16-20 October (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTvWwBx_ojs#ws)
BBC News UK autumn storm expected from Hurricane Gonzalo tail (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHI4PXyCpFI#ws)
Waves Thrash Against Aberystwyth Coast As Gonzalo Hits (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTC2Gei_cVg#ws)
United Kingdom: Hurricane Gonzalo batters UK coastline (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESJR_V2Okm8#ws)
-
Gonzalo llega a Europa convertido en una profunda borrasca (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia/72-tiempo-severo-en-el-mundo/4213-gonzalo-llega-a-europa-convertido-en-una-profunda-borrasca)